16 October, 14:00
15

The Titan's Agony: How and Why Donald Trump Is Now Fully on Russia's Side

Основні тези
  • U.S. President Donald Trump reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin on the supply of Russian diesel fuel, which provides for the partial lifting of sanctions on the transportation of energy resources.
  • The Trump administration is proposing to unfreeze Russian assets in Europe to achieve an energy truce, a move that has drawn a negative reaction from European leaders.

Channel 24 analyzed the main aspects of the internal struggle over Ukraine within the White House and explains why Trump, instead of imposing “hellish sanctions” against Russia, sided with it and is now provoking nothing more than “hellish turmoil.”

U.S. President Trump announced an agreement with Russian dictator Putin regarding the supply of Russian diesel on October 9, 2026. The deal took Ukraine and Europe by surprise. No one expected such an “about-face” from the U.S., as this involves not only economic benefits for Vladimir Putin but also the partial lifting of sanctions on the transportation of energy resources.

Trump announces the establishment of a so-called “energy truce” between Ukraine and Russia on October 11, 2026. President Zelenskyy learns of the agreement from the news, while Russia continues to shell Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

The U.S. pressures Ukraine to unilaterally cease strikes on Russian oil refineries, while simply “turning a blind eye” to Russian attacks on Ukraine. The U.S. has also begun withholding intelligence data regarding Russian ballistic missile launches targeting Kyiv and, on orders from the Pentagon, has restricted Starlink operations.

On the night of October 16, in yet another interview, Trump confirmed the worst with his attacks on Ukraine and its leader – the current U.S. president is acting on Russia’s side and exclusively in Russia’s interests. Channel 24 analyzed the main aspects of the internal struggle over Ukraine within the White House and explains why, instead of imposing “hellish sanctions” against Russia, Trump has sided with it and is now provoking nothing more than “hellish turmoil.”

Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin, helped shed light on what is going on in the mind of the U.S. president – and, unfortunately, the most powerful person in the world.

The idea of concluding business deals between the U.S. and Russia even before the end of the war against Ukraine did not come out of thin air. It is the brainchild of real estate agent Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, who, unfortunately, were tasked with leading negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine.

After obvious failures on the negotiating track regarding Iran, both of the president’s representatives were tasked with stepping up efforts on the Ukrainian issue. On September 5–6, 2026, Witkoff and Kushner visited Kyiv and Moscow, but it was only later that the details of these meetings became known. The American negotiators do not understand who they are dealing with and clearly judge others by their own standards when they think that Putin can be enticed with billions of dollars – after all, they, too, want a share of the “profits” from new agreements.

That’s why the new ideas are based on the “material” aspect. They think: “Let’s just offer Putin money – maybe that will interest him? We’re ready to pay by check and make payments even before the war in Ukraine ends.” That’s why no amount of stylish T-shirts with witty slogans can convince them to be on the right side of history.

The Trump administration has been discussing a multi-billion oil deal for many months regarding a large portfolio of oil fields, refineries, and gas stations owned by Russia’s “Lukoil.” The Financial Times reports that the U.S. has offered European countries the chance to unfreeze a portion of Russian sovereign assets in an attempt to “bribe” Putin into agreeing to an energy truce. The amount in question is enormous: $100 billion – but only in exchange for a limited ceasefire.

In total, more than 200 billion euros of the Kremlin’s assets have been frozen in Europe. This is one of the West’s strongest bargaining chips, and it certainly needs to be used in negotiations – but not in exchange for a limited ceasefire.

By offering Putin $100 billion for an energy truce, the West is playing its hand before real negotiations even begin. This amounts to nearly half of all of Russia’s financial assets abroad. If Russia violates even such an agreement, Putin will obviously not return the money, and the West will thoughtlessly lose yet another leverage point against the Kremlin.

According to insiders, Europe was initially shocked by this proposal. Fortunately, the shock did not last long, as European leaders have already made it clear to Trump that they will never agree to such a thing.

“These are assets that are frozen in Europe, in the EU, and they must remain frozen in Europe. This is our business, and we decide it ourselves,” German Chancellor Merz put Trump and his “peace deal” advocates in their place.

The positive aspect here is that the U.S. cannot simply take these assets and hand them over to the Kremlin, since they are held in bank accounts in Belgium. Only the EU and the Belgian government have the authority to make such decisions. And they, of course, will not go along with this – at least not under the “win-win” conditions proposed by Witkoff and Kushner.

Reuters reports on yet another of Trump’s “brilliant ideas”: easing sanctions against ships in the so-called “shadow fleet” that transported oil and petroleum products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. And all of this is supposedly just to lower global freight rates, which have reached record highs.

First, this would be a catastrophic mistake, as it would bring Russian oil back onto the global markets in full force. Second, the U.S. would lose its last remaining leverage over Russia, as all significant sanctions would be lifted without any concessions from the Kremlin. Next would come only the resumption of direct air service between the U.S. and Russia, and that would be it: Moscow would be back on the world stage. Such a decision would be more devastating than the U.S. purchasing 3 million metric tons of diesel fuel, as it would completely lift restrictions on the maritime transport of oil.

Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics, notes that Trump’s goal is not a ceasefire, but merely to stop the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes on Russian oil refineries. According to the expert, the U.S. president has convinced himself that this is the reason for the rise in gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. Now, Trump is trying to impose this distorted reality – his version of events – on the world.

 

Scott Lucas

Professor of International Politics

Donald Trump’s priority at the moment is not to reach a realistic ceasefire agreement. He simply wants Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries because of the problem with gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. Witkoff and Kushner’s idea of limiting strikes to oil refineries alone is utter nonsense. In that case, Ukraine would lose its leverage over Russia.

President Trump is clearly in despair over the Republicans’ potential defeat in the midterm elections. That is why he agreed to a scandalous and not entirely obvious deal with Putin (which will obviously not save him).

As is well known, Trump’s approval rating has reached a record low for both of his terms in the White House, according to the latest poll results from Fox News, which has historically been loyal to the Republican leader. Thirty-six percent of respondents approve of Trump’s performance in office, while 64 percent disapprove. This is a blow not only to Trump but also to the Republicans, who could actually lose control of the House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate as well.

In that case, Trump would become a “lame duck” and lose his guaranteed right to legislative initiative – specifically, his authority over the U.S. legislative branch. House committees could investigate all internal corruption within Trump’s inner circle and “drag” the president’s friends to hearings to provide relevant testimony.

For example, Republican Senator Tom Tillis has already launched an investigation into the Pentagon’s role in restricting the operation of Starlink satellite communication systems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, the Pentagon and Pete Hagseth may be the source of the problem.

We will ask the Inspector General of the Department of Defense to launch an investigation and provide a report to Congress and the American people. At best, this was a mistake or negligence; at worst, it was a deliberate decision to facilitate the effectiveness of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Senator Tom Tillis announced, promising "hell will break loose".

Meanwhile, billionaire Elon Musk sensed the shifting winds and technically “washed his hands” of the matter, shifting all responsibility onto the U.S. government.

The Starshield systems are owned and operated by the U.S. government. Any restrictions on speed or use are set by the U.S. military, and the final decision is made by the President of the United States – Elon Musk is keeping his distance.

So Trump’s team will have to deal with the consequences of this “betrayal” (though we can probably drop the quotation marks by now). And very soon.

The biggest blow to Ukraine’s defense capabilities was the delay in providing intelligence regarding Russian strikes on Kyiv and operations involving the Starlink systems. President Trump likely didn’t come up with this move on his own, as he isn’t very knowledgeable about these matters. But then again, when would he even have time to think about Starlink’s role in the war in Ukraine, given that he’s currently preoccupied with the midterm elections? The problem lies “in the details” – specifically, in Trump’s inner circle.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted that someone advised Trump to do this and pointed to the business interests of the U.S. president’s inner circle. This likely refers to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner:

Listen, guys, this isn’t a business for us. These are our lives. This is our country, our home, our children. If you’re on the fence, you should stay on the fence – not on the wrong side. I think Trump’s advisers are wrong. I don’t know who’s pushing him toward the wrong side. That’s not the right side of history.

A real power struggle over Ukraine has likely unfolded in the White House: how to proceed and whether to halt the exchange of intelligence. Western media report that CIA Director John Ratcliffe opposes halting the exchange of intelligence with Ukraine. And for good reason. On August 31, John Ratcliffe personally called on Russian officials to end the war against Ukraine, as the situation could worsen for the Kremlin. Ratcliffe supports the exchange of intelligence regarding Ukraine’s strikes against Russia. He was the one who convinced Trump that this was the right strategy.

Professor Scott Lucas notes that there are more supporters of Ukraine within the U.S. government than many people realize. They cannot act publicly, but they do wield some influence within the context of internal political struggles.

 

 

Scott Lucas

Professor of International Politics

We know there are officials in the State Department, the Treasury Department, and the intelligence community who believe in European security. Many of them disagree with what Trump did regarding diesel fuel. CIA Director John Ratcliffe was in Moscow in August and told Russian intelligence chiefs directly that Putin will not defeat Ukraine. The Trump administration is divided on Ukraine, but to claim that it has become entirely pro-Russian is, at the very least, premature.

So, U.S. President Donald Trump, in a state of despair and complete ignorance of cause-and-effect relationships, has gone all-in on his re-election campaign. He is trying to save his approval ratings and the Republicans, but he doesn’t care at what cost – even if it means making deals with the devil. Buying Russian diesel won’t lower diesel prices in the U.S., but a desperate Trump doesn’t care: the main thing is to show his voters that he’s doing something and somehow correcting the mistakes of the war against Iran.

Against this backdrop, a real power struggle is intensifying in the White House between the anti-Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian factions. CIA Director John Ratcliffe opposes cutting off aid to Ukraine, while Trump is ready to “abandon” Ukraine. We hope that after the midterm congressional elections, the “hotheads” around Trump won’t have time to “stir up even more trouble.”

A shift in the balance of power in Congress will certainly influence the U.S. president’s foreign policy: Trump will have to reckon with the Democrats, no matter how much he might not want to, and with the fact that Putin couldn’t care less about his “business initiatives” – the main thing is to break Ukraine. And he’s ready to spend as much money as it takes to do so. So we’re waiting for November 3, but we’re keeping in mind that even if the Republicans suffer a fiasco, the new Congress won’t begin its work until January. So the madness and chaos will continue.

Часті питання

What agreement did U.S. President Donald Trump announce with Russia on October 9, 2026?

U.S. President Trump announced an agreement with Russian dictator Putin on the supply of Russian diesel fuel, which surprised Ukraine and Europe – this involves not only economic benefits for Putin but also the partial lifting of sanctions on the transport of energy resources.

What was Europe's reaction to the U.S. proposal to lift some sanctions in order to reach an energy truce with Russia?

European leaders were shocked by the U.S. proposal to unfreeze some of Russia’s sovereign assets in order to reach an energy truce, and they made it clear to Trump that they would never agree to such a thing – these assets must remain frozen in Europe.

What impact will Trump's agreement with Putin have on U.S.-Ukraine relations?

Trump's agreement with Putin could negatively impact U.S.-Ukraine relations, as the Trump administration is pressuring Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, and the Pentagon is restricting Starlink operations, which undermines Ukraine's defense capabilities.