Black Monday or a Day of Hope: What October 19 Will Mean for Ukrainian Citizens in the US – an article by Valery Chaly for 24TVUA

Ukrainian refugees in the U.S. may soon find themselves in an undocumented status and become official targets for agents of the notorious ICE. Why this has happened, how Ukrainians in the U.S. have become hostages to politics, and why they have been “forgotten” – read about it in Valery Chaly’s article, which he prepared exclusively for Channel 24.

Why this has happened, how Ukrainians in the U.S. have become hostages to politics, and why they have been “forgotten” – read about it in this article by Valery Chaly, a well-known diplomat and chairman of the board of the Ukrainian Media Center, which he prepared specifically for Channel 24.

An Anxious Morning

On October 19, more than 100,000 Ukrainian citizens who fled the war to the U.S. will wake up in the morning and, as has become their habit, the first thing they’ll do is call their relatives, friends, and acquaintances in Ukraine to check how they’d weathered the day and night under enemy missiles and drones.

And immediately after that, they won’t go looking for videos of Ukrainian officials on YouTube or visit Ukrainian websites, such as those of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Ukrainian Embassy in the U.S. They will all open the website of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to read a few lines that could determine their fate for the coming months, years, and for some, perhaps for the rest of their lives.

The fact is that today (or in the coming days), information is expected to be released regarding whether they will be able to remain in the U.S. under “Temporary Protected Status” (TPS), for how long, and whether they’ll be able to obtain an Employment Authorization Document (EAD) and pay all their bills. Or do they need to pack their bags immediately and buy tickets, to avoid being detained by ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents and deported from the United States.

Three Possible Scenarios

Although immigration attorneys are not unanimous in their interpretation of how DHS regulations will be implemented – especially when clarifications are not provided or are published with significant delays – it is nevertheless clear that there are three main scenarios.

• The first (optimistic) scenario is that TPS will be extended for a certain period (six months, one year, or 18 months), and those who did not previously have TPS will be given the opportunity to apply for a new period.
• The second (pessimistic) scenario is that a decision will be made stating that, as of October 19 of this year, staying in the U.S. under TPS will become illegal, and citizens will be urged to begin the self-deportation process within a specified timeframe. If they fail to do so, they may be detained by ICE and forcibly deported from the U.S.
• The third (realistic) scenario is an automatic six-month extension of TPS. According to the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) §244(b)(3)(A), DHS was required to determine, at least 60 days before the end of the current TPS period, whether the grounds for granting temporary protected status still exist. This was not done by August 20, 2026. The same law (§244(b)(3)(C), 8 U.S.C. §1254a(b)(3)(C)) provides for an automatic six-month extension of TPS (until April 19, 2027), since no decision was made.

It was precisely this third option that was applied in similar cases involving citizens of Honduras (2018) and South Sudan (2025). Furthermore, in those cases, DHS not only confirmed the automatic extension of TPS but also separately extended the validity of the corresponding work permits, without which most of those temporarily residing in the U.S. who have opted out of any benefits (such as free health insurance, food stamps, etc.) would be unable to continue supporting themselves and their families unless they work illegally, with all the associated consequences.

The situation is currently better for Ukrainian citizens who are continuing to stay in the U.S. under a humanitarian parole (the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) program), but it is only a matter of time before their “deadlines” expire as well.

Why Are U.S. Authorities Delaying So Much?

Why is there such uncertainty right up until the last day (and perhaps even beyond)? There are three main reasons.

The first reason: the decision to grant protection to Ukrainians and their children was made by the previous administration in 2022, when immigration policy was much more lenient, and Washington’s official stance was focused on actively supporting Ukraine during the war.

At that time, millions of Ukrainians fled mainly to Europe, the U.S., and Canada, which became part of the partner assistance for Ukraine, which was under attack by the Russians. Currently, U.S. immigration policy is strict, and the U.S. government’s desire to meet its deportation targets (one million per year) also affects Ukrainians.

The second reason: it can be assumed that, while awaiting the conclusion of negotiations to end the war, the U.S. agencies involved in implementing foreign and immigration policy delayed their decisions for as long as possible, hoping for a change in circumstances – at the very least, a public statement from Donald Trump that he had “already stopped the war.” And such a scenario was indeed close to happening (and still cannot be ruled out).

Yet the U.S. president made a statement about “an energy ceasefire” (twice) at a time when the situation offered no evidence to support such a possibility. Why not expect a similar statement regarding the entire war?!

The third reason: realizing which way the “wind is blowing” with the U.S. administration’s new immigration policy, officials began implementing “deportation plans.”

On the one hand, reviewing errors from past years and verifying information to combat illegal immigration have placed an enormous burden on the relevant agencies and, of course, caused delays in processing citizens’ applications for temporary stay status in the U.S. and all related matters. In tens of thousands of cases, applicants are waiting for a decision on their cases even longer than the processing deadlines specified by regulations. And this is despite the fact that the fee for such processing (which currently amounts to several thousand dollars for a family) has essentially become a “tax on protection in the U.S.” On the other hand, this uncertainty regarding specific cases has placed applicants in a legal status that is effectively equivalent to unlawful presence in the U.S., thereby expanding the scope of operations for law enforcement immigration agencies (DHS, along with CBP and ICE).

The worst aspect of all these scenarios is the uncertainty itself. If the current U.S. administration had followed the example of European countries or Canada, which granted refuge to Ukrainians and extended it in a timely manner, then regulatory and legal acts would have been adopted on time, and it would have been clearer what would happen after the temporary stay of Ukrainian citizens abroad ended.

What Are the Options for Solving the Problem?

These problems are evident not only to Ukrainians but also to the White House’s political opponents in the U.S. Congress – and not just to Democrats. This is evidenced by legislative proposals introduced in both chambers of Congress that would extend TPS for Ukrainians through 2029 or establish a mechanism for transitioning from these temporary measures to obtaining permanent resident status in the U.S.

The Ukrainian Adjustment Act is a long-term bill that proposes to provide Ukrainians with a path to permanent residency (green cards). It was introduced in the House of Representatives (H.R. 3104) by William Keating and in the Senate (S. 5521) by Lisa Murkowski.

It proposes allowing Ukrainian citizens and their family members who entered the U.S. under humanitarian parole (in particular through the Uniting for Ukraine program) to apply for lawful permanent resident status (green cards). The bill provides for an exemption from standard immigration fees and requires background checks similar to those in refugee programs.

Bills to extend Temporary Protected Status (TPS) – in the Senate (S. 5490) – an initiative by Richard Blumenthal and Lisa Murkowski, in the House of Representatives (H.R. 9918) – introduced by Rep. Jason Crow – aim to legally enshrine protections for Ukrainians against deportation and preserve their work authorizations through July 2029, including those who arrived after the initial waves.

The bill, titled the Protecting Our Guests During Hostilities in Ukraine Act, introduced in the House of Representatives (H.R. 2118) and the Senate (S.696), proposes to establish a special “Temporary Ukrainian Guest Status.”

Under this status, individuals with humanitarian parole will automatically be considered legally admitted guests with the right to employment for the duration of this status. The proposal calls for this status to be revoked only 120 days after the State Department officially confirms the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.

Obviously, not all of these bills will become law. Moreover, it is virtually impossible for them to be passed before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026.

It is unlikely that their consideration, which has begun in the judiciary committees, will be completed by this session of Congress. However, the chances of them being reintroduced by the new Congress are quite high. Moreover, the projected results of the U.S. congressional elections and the shift of at least one chamber to Democratic control create political opportunities for one of these bills to successfully pass through Congress and be enacted into law.

What Ukraine Is Proposing – and What It Is Not

It is difficult to say what the reaction will be in the White House, but in any case, the situation next year will be more favorable for finding an adequate, consolidated political solution than it is now.

The only problem is that Ukrainian citizens do not know how to wait for this moment and these decisions. The “simple option” proposed by the Ukrainian government is to return to Ukraine; yet, for some reason, those currently under massive missile and drone attacks are being advised to leave major cities – particularly Kyiv.

This option, as they say, is not on the table right now. Moreover, it is unlikely that Ukrainian refugees will return to Ukraine, even if they are forced to leave the U.S. Most of them are more likely to move to Canada and European countries that are still accepting Ukrainians – even those who already had TPS status in the U.S. – primarily to Portugal, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany.

Not only do these countries grant work permits, but they also offer special programs and tax incentives for certain categories of Ukrainians who have moved from the U.S. (highly skilled professionals; young professionals with higher education, especially in STEM fields; and those willing to relocate to specific regions).

It is somewhat surprising that, despite extensive advocacy campaigns to protect the rights of Ukrainians within the U.S. itself and the involvement of many activists in informational and lobbying efforts, these Ukrainian citizens have effectively been “forgotten” by Ukraine’s official institutions.

One could debate at length the motivations, goals, or composition of this forced wave of emigration from Ukraine (beginning in February 2022) – and even its demographics (since it includes many who did not leave from Ukraine, but took advantage of this opportunity to move to the U.S. from other countries) and about the mechanisms for the return of Ukrainian citizens to Ukraine; however, no one has repealed Article 25 of the Constitution of Ukraine, and it clearly states that “Ukraine guarantees care and protection to its citizens who are outside its borders.”

To be fair, it should be emphasized that Ukrainian diplomatic missions abroad, despite being overwhelmed by the number of requests, continue to provide consular services to these citizens. However, they have essentially adopted a wait-and-see stance, adhering to the approach repeatedly stated by official Kyiv regarding the return of Ukrainians home after the war.

The problem is that there is still no sign of “after the war,” and Ukrainian citizens who were temporarily forced to relocate to the U.S. – many of whom continue to donate to the Armed Forces of Ukraine – have effectively been left on their own, without support and trapped in the “American-Ukrainian political-bureaucratic vise.”

Whatever decisions are announced today (or in the coming days) by official U.S. immigration agencies – it will be better than the uncertainty amid the war, which effectively forced Ukrainian women and children, above all, to flee abroad, and is now catching up with them there as well.