Same Old Song: Will Trump resume active military actions against Iran?

American politicians on Capitol Hill, diplomats from the European Union, and leaders of Middle Eastern countries are holding their breath, waiting for an answer to the question: Will Donald Trump resume military action against the regime in Iran?

President Trump has been hinting at this for several weeks now. Earlier this month, he stated that the United States would win the war "right after the elections" or "possibly before the elections," in which Americans will elect new members of Congress and senators on November 3.

The U.S. president is being pushed toward new strikes not only by the Republican Party’s potential defeat in the midterm elections but also by another Iran-hater – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who also has his own elections coming up.

Tehran is closely monitoring the situation and, while Russia is evacuating its specialists from Iran, claims it has already developed new plans for strikes against targets in the region. Moreover, it claims it will fight to the last this time.

24 Channel explores what consequences new attacks on Iran might have, whether they will help Donald Trump in the election, and what benefits Russia might gain from this.

The war with Iran has reached an impasse

After nearly nine months, Tehran and Washington find themselves in a deadlock – neither side has achieved a tangible result in reality (as opposed to on social media) that would allow it to declare victory, and a unilateral withdrawal by either party from the war would mean defeat.

The U.S. military has inflicted massive destruction on Iran but has been unable to translate its military successes into a diplomatic victory, so each side is waiting for the other to be the first to back down. Hostilities effectively ceased after the April ceasefire, but the 14-point memorandum signed in June – which was intended to pave the way for a settlement – never took effect.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of the conflict. The U.S. maintains a blockade of Iranian ports, which has halted oil exports and hampered Tehran’s maritime trade. Although Trump claims that the Strait of Hormuz is fully under the control of U.S. forces and is open and safe for ships, the reality is quite different. According to the International Maritime Organization, at least 27 ships have been attacked by Iran – the highest number of ships targeted since March of this year.

A satirical anti-American poster parodying the iconic cover of the album *Nevermind* on the streets of Tehran. Photo: AFP

“There’s so much oil out there,” Trump said on October 22 at a rally in Iowa, explaining that thanks to the U.S.-led naval blockade, the amount of oil on the market has become greater than ever before.

The U.S. president is partly right: according to Kpler, exports of oil and petroleum products from the Middle East last week reached levels last seen before the war with Iran. However, this was achieved because Arab states were able to find alternative routes for exporting oil. Saudi Arabia uses the East-West pipeline to transport oil to ports on the Red Sea coast, and from there, it ships it to buyers around the world. At the same time, the Saudis must take into account the threat posed by the Houthis, who are also allies of Iran and often act in a coordinated manner.

For its part, the UAE uses the ADCOP pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, for the same purpose, while other countries rely on a shuttle system in which government vessels deliver oil to larger tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman.

However, higher export volumes have not made fuel any cheaper. The price of Brent crude has risen by 43% since the signing of the June memorandum and is trading at $117 per barrel, while the cost of diesel has increased by approximately 35%. And although Trump blames Ukraine for this, everyone understands the situation.

Tehran has also found itself trapped by its own wait-and-see tactics. The Iranian side is refraining from active measures, hoping to wear down its opponent, but the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has proven to be a double-edged sword.

The paralysis of this strategic route is hitting both sides equally hard: while the U.S. and its allies face a global energy crisis and soaring fuel prices, Iran itself remains cut off from key oil export routes, losing its last sources of revenue for its battered economy. As a result, the mutual blockade has turned into a vicious cycle, where every additional day of stalemate comes at too high a cost for both Washington and Tehran.

But each side has both compelling reasons to end the war and the means to continue it.

Trump’s New “Small, Victorious War”

November 3 midterm elections for Congress, in which Americans will elect new members of the U.S. legislature – namely, the entire lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, and approximately one-third of the upper house, the Senate.

However, Republican approval ratings are plummeting to record lows. Polling data indicates that Democrats are almost certain to win the House of Representatives and may well secure a majority in the Senate as well.

To boost his party’s approval ratings, according to *The Atlantic*, Trump and his administration have begun considering the possibility of launching new strikes against Iran. After this information made its way into the media, Trump publicly stated that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. But the likelihood of new strikes against the Islamic Republic has not gone away.

“We can launch another little ‘Epic Rage,’” Trump said on October 23 during a rally in Florida, just a few weeks after ruling out such a possibility.

The problem for Trump is that only 34% of Americans support a war with Iran, and Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level during his second term – only 31% of citizens approve of the U.S. president’s actions. It was precisely after the strikes on Tehran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the rise in prices for oil, gas, and diesel that fewer and fewer American voters began to support Donald Trump’s policies.

Donald Trump’s approval ratings are now at their lowest point during his second term / Infographic – Reuters / Ipsos

Added to this is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's need for new military action. Parliamentary elections in Israel are set to take place this week, and a return to hostilities on the eve of the vote could help Netanyahu retain his position in the event of an uncertain outcome.

Netanyahu is insisting on a new strike before the Israeli elections, but Trump has so far refused to authorize it. He has merely expressed support for the prime minister and stated that he wants to help him “finish the job” if Iran does not change its behavior. And Iran certainly won’t change. Therefore, Trump doesn’t have many options – either a geopolitical “TACO” ahead of the election, or going all in.

What exactly can the U.S. do in the event of a new operation?

The U.S. military command is already deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. The ships currently heading to the region carry a combined total of more than 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines. The force includes the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, as well as the USS Makin Island along with two other, smaller amphibious ships.

The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is already en route from the Pacific Ocean to the Middle East / Photo – U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Adina Phebus

Taking into account the forces already deployed in the area and blocking the Strait of Hormuz – specifically the aircraft carriers USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington, as well as the USS Boxer amphibious ready group – the total strength of the U.S. contingent will reach an unusually high level of over 20,000 service members and hundreds of aircraft.

The last time the Pentagon deployed three aircraft carriers simultaneously in this region was in April, and before that – only during the large-scale campaign of 2003, when the Americans sought to topple Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq.

The main targets of the strikes could be Iranian nuclear and energy facilities, as well as depots containing missiles and drones. According to some U.S. officials, another large-scale attack could permanently destroy Iran’s economy. Washington believes this would force Tehran to agree to diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of continuous confrontation.

At the same time, some officials in Washington point out that oil refineries and fuel infrastructure are unlikely to be targeted. This is because Donald Trump is trying at all costs to avoid another spike in fuel prices, especially for diesel.

To strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are located deep in the mountains, the U.S. military could use the 9-metric-ton GBU-43/B high-explosive bomb, also known as the MOAB. According to sources cited by The New York Times, Trump wants to carry out strikes with these specific bombs because the U.S. president likes their name – in military circles, it’s known as the Mother of All Bombs.

However, the Pentagon’s capabilities are limited. A September report by the U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General pointed to strategic ammunition shortages, and commanders in the Indo-Pacific region and Europe are complaining that resources are too heavily concentrated on this operation. Furthermore, reinforcements in the form of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and other ships will not arrive in the Middle East until early November. Therefore, the Americans will most likely carry out a swift operation, possibly even after the election, and then once again force Tehran to return to the negotiating table.

Of course, Trump may change his mind several times a day, but according to NBC News, the urgent evacuation of American diplomats and their families from Arab countries in the Middle East is evidence that the U.S. is preparing for new strikes against Iran.

The Russians, incidentally, are doing the same thing. Reports are circulating in the media about the evacuation of Russians from the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, as well as diplomats. Russia itself denies all of this, but no one believes them.

How will Iran respond, and who will pay?

Tehran is warning in advance that the second round of the war will be harsher than the first, and the consequences could extend far beyond Iran’s borders. Given that air defense systems across the region have been depleted following the first phase, these threats do not seem empty. This may also explain why the Pentagon has been delaying the delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine for a month now. However, the Iranians are promising more than just missile attacks.

According to Reuters, in the event of renewed hostilities, the country has developed detailed plans to attack undersea communication cables in the Gulf and will attempt to prevent their repair in order to prolong communication disruptions. According to one high-ranking Iranian official speaking to the publication, “there will be no more red lines,” and the targets for new strikes will include both undersea cables and military bases, particularly covert ones.

Underwater Internet Cable System in the Middle East / Infographic – TeleGeography

Earlier, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, warned that U.S.-linked digital infrastructure in the Gulf – including data centers and artificial intelligence facilities – could come under attack.

According to the International Telecommunication Union, undersea cables carry about 99% of global internet traffic. However, analysts note that the global impact of such attacks by Iran could be significantly limited, as less than 1% of international communication bandwidth passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A disruption to undersea cables would certainly disrupt internet service and financial transactions in the region, but terrestrial communication lines would help reroute traffic.

Tehran’s main blow will most likely target the energy sectors of countries in the region. Iran is incapable of attacking U.S. territory, so the Arab states neighboring the Islamic Republic and Israel will once again bear the brunt of the attack. They have already paid a heavy price: during the first round, Arab countries suffered thousands of drone and missile strikes and have been forced to find new routes for oil shipments.

Iranian missiles are displayed alongside banners depicting Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC commanders on a street in Tehran / Photo – Majid Asgaripour/WANA

Since the war began, Qatar’s economy has contracted by 15%; the IMF expects the UAE’s economy to shrink by 4%; Saudi Arabia has suffered strikes on its oil refining infrastructure and airports; and Bahrain needs financial assistance due to the risk of a decline in its foreign exchange reserves.

To terrorize the Arab Gulf states, Iran may draw on its allies from the “Axis of Resistance” with renewed vigor – the “Ansar Allah” movement in Yemen, known as the Houthis, the Lebanese “Hezbollah,” Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Palestinian groups Hamas and “Islamic Jihad.”

The Houthis have repeatedly attacked cities, airports, and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, while “Hezbollah” has carried out strikes against Israel. Other pro-Iranian armed groups have joined Tehran’s strikes against U.S. bases in the region.

The global economy will also suffer. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, warned that Europe is entering winter with historically low gas reserves and will not be able to withstand further disruptions. EU storage facilities are only 72% full, compared to the usual 90%, and nearly one-tenth of Europe’s liquefied natural gas previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The cost of oil, gasoline, and diesel will only rise amid a possible escalation between the U.S. and Iran and new attacks on Gulf countries.

But Iran is already paying a heavy price, and will pay even more if hostilities resume. In just the last 100 days, the blockade of Iranian ports has deprived the regime of at least $25 billion in oil revenues, and according to Kpler, the floating oil reserves that Tehran had been selling since the blockade began were depleted by mid-October. Inflation within the country has reached 90 percent, food prices have risen by more than 120 percent, and millions of people have fallen below the poverty line, losing their jobs and homes. However, Iran’s leadership is unconcerned about the hardships faced by ordinary people. They are convinced that the new U.S. campaign will require a stronger response from them than before, and the Ayatollah regime believes that Trump will be the first to back down.

The “humanitarians” are already on the starting blocks

Although both sides of the conflict are rattling their weapons in each other’s faces and threatening new strikes, both Washington and Tehran wish to reach a peace agreement through diplomatic channels. The leadership of both countries actually understands that a new escalation between the two states will only worsen the situation.

Pakistan and Qatar are currently acting as mediators in resolving the conflict. Both countries are making significant efforts to settle the regional conflict. They served as intermediaries during the signing of the June memorandum of understanding and are also organizing regular rounds of negotiations. However, Trump’s “dear friend” from the Kremlin may join this group.

Vladimir Putin is eager to help end the war between Washington and Tehran. In recent weeks, the Russian president has met twice with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and according to Al Arabiya, he will meet with him for a third time this week. Putin seeks to become a mediator – or at least a reliable go-between – between the two capitals and to regain the role and influence that Moscow lost following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan, October 2026 / Photo – Kremlin

The Kremlin’s main strategy is a proposal to take over Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. But officials in Washington, including Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, have ruled out such a possibility, while Tehran has stated that not a single gram of enriched uranium will leave the country. Nevertheless, Putin is not giving up: on October 21, he met with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg and once again proposed taking Iran’s uranium.

In a post on the social media platform Truth Social on October 18, Trump stated that Moscow is actually “doing very little, if anything at all,” to help Iran, adding: “I want it to stay that way, and it will continue to be that way, unless some foolish people get in the way.”

As reported by The Wall Street Journal, NBC News, and other Western media outlets, Moscow has been sending weapons, explosives, and ammunition to Tehran by plane and ship via the Caspian Sea since the start of the war, assisting in the modernization of Iranian drones – particularly the Shahed-136 – and supplying components for them. Russia also provides Iran and its allies with intelligence on the locations of U.S. military facilities, ships, and aircraft in the Middle East, which can be used to plan strikes against U.S. forces.

According to Putin, trade between the two countries grew by more than 21% in 2025 and is on track to continue at that rate in 2026. The Russians also provided Tehran with a $1 billion loan, but according to Iranian media, the promised funds have been held up due to disputes among Iranian agencies over how to spend that billion.

However, during the same talks on October 21 – Steve Witkoff, an official envoy of the U.S. president, called a war criminal a "humanitarian" – Putin declared his readiness not only to remove nuclear materials from Iran but also to help resolve the conflict with Tehran.

An Overdose of “Humanism”: Steve Witkoff with Putin at the October 21 meeting in St. Petersburg / Photo – Kremlin

According to some far-fetched scenarios that have begun circulating on social media, Putin proposed the following plan to Witkoff: Russia would stop supporting Iran and force it to the negotiating table, while the U.S. would halt aid to Ukraine and hand Kyiv over to Moscow. This scenario is highly unlikely – Russia simply does not have that much influence over Iran.

But following recent statements by Donald Trump and his administration, the United States’ purchase of Russian diesel fuel, the shutdown of the Starlink (Starshield) for Ukraine, followed by a reduction in its speed, and information about a potential multibillion-dollar deal involving the assets of the Russian oil company Lukoil, the question arises: are these rumors really so far-fetched?