The Battle for Sofia: Why the Second Round of the Bulgarian Presidential Election Has Become a Test of Survival for the Black Sea Region

On Sunday, November 1, Bulgaria will hold the second round of its presidential election. The race features a highly significant (and not just for Bulgaria) showdown: pro-Russian candidate Iliana Yotova versus pro-European and pro-Ukrainian Andrey Gyurov.

The suspense is at a fever pitch, as the gap between the candidates is minimal, and the first round saw an all-time low in voter turnout.

Will the country’s political direction change? Who are Bulgarians backing? And what do these elections mean for Ukraine? 24 Channel explored these questions with Dimitar Keranov, an analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center and an expert on Balkan politics.

The highest number of candidates and the lowest voter turnout

This year’s election will determine the head of state for the next five years – the new president will take office in January 2027. In the first round, 27 candidates competed for the presidency, a record number in the history of direct presidential elections in Bulgaria.

Under Bulgarian law, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote and achieve a 50% voter turnout to win outright in the first round. Since none of the candidates cleared this hurdle, a decisive second round awaits the country on November 1.

On the eve of the election, pollsters predicted an uncontested lead for the favorite, Iliana Yotova – over 40% and a comfortable lead of nearly 20 percentage points. However, reality defied the predictions: the incumbent acting president from the “Progressive Bulgaria” party, Iliana Yotova, finished with 34.76%, while her main opponent, the pro-Western former Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, is literally hot on her heels with 31.95%.

In addition to the unexpected balance of power, the first round of the election was marked by critically low voter turnout – only 22.2%. To put this in context: Bulgarians had already gone to the polls in April 2026 for parliamentary elections, the results of which saw Prime Minister Rumen Radev take office, who is trying to balance between Moscow and Brussels, leaning toward the former.

Analysts attribute the current lack of interest in voting to deep public distrust of the political system.

The Worst Time for Fatigue and “Burnout”

The parliamentary elections in April 2026, which brought Rumen Radev to power, were the country’s eighth in the last five years, and the current ones mark the ninth. So Bulgarians are simply tired of politics.

But this “burnout” is occurring against the backdrop of very significant events – Russia is increasingly attacking ships off the coast of Bulgaria, Putin is directly threatening NATO, and his saboteurs are carrying out successful operations within the country. Against this backdrop, Radev’s government pretends that everything is fine and continues to shower the aggressor with compliments.

To seize the initiative, the opponent of the pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian Gyurov is trying to force voters into an artificial choice between “peace and war.” Gyurov’s open support for Ukraine is currently being actively discredited through manipulative scare tactics, with the public being warned that a vote for him would supposedly drag Bulgaria into the conflict.

In an interview with 24 Channel, Keranov emphasizes that such intimidation is blatant disinformation and pure propaganda.

The elections themselves are taking place amid a direct military (!) threat: Russia has effectively opened fire on civilian ships in the Black Sea off the coast of Bulgaria. Tensions are so high that the defense ministers of Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey held an emergency meeting in Sofia, where they condemned the attacks on the commercial fleet and launched a joint maritime security mechanism.

Russian attack on a civilian ship off the coast of Bulgaria – watch the video, warning: 18+:

Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov acknowledged that the Russians are provoking a dangerous escalation, forcing NATO allies to immediately step up intelligence sharing and prepare for military meetings in Bucharest and Ankara.

Of course, Russia is ignoring all these warnings.

The Kremlin’s cynicism is evident in its actions: yet another attack occurred right in the middle of these talks. While the ministers were meeting in Sofia, 21 miles from the Bulgarian town of Shabla, three Russian naval drones struck a civilian container ship in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. And this is a pattern: on October 23, off the coast of Romania, a ship sank as a result of a similar attack, killing a Ukrainian sailor, and a few weeks earlier, a similar tragic incident occurred right off the Bulgarian coast.

Bulgaria Chooses to “Tolerate”

The position of Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev himself is telling in this regard. And it is frankly pitiful. Following the first drone attack on civilian cargo ships in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, which took place on October 6, 2026, the pro-Russian politician told reporters that he could not yet clearly determine the origin of the drones, noting that “they are either Russian or Ukrainian.”

These insinuations from official Sofia undermine not only logic but also allied relations. Recall that both countries are NATO members.

The contrast with its neighbors is truly striking. Bucharest isn’t burying its head in the sand: the Foreign Ministry directly names the culprits, the president speaks of a deliberate escalation by the Kremlin, and Romanian fighter jets are now shooting down enemy drones without much hesitation.

Bulgaria, on the other hand, is demonstrating the opposite. Alarming statistics are sounding the alarm: between October 15 and 23, the Russians damaged about eight ships, and another one in the past 24 hours.

According to Keranov, such attacks have already claimed the lives of – or left the fate of – about 30 sailors unknown. But official Sofia has chosen to “endure.” And this strategy plays right into Moscow’s hands.

The root of the problem is obvious: it’s Radev’s trademark balancing act between the West and the Kremlin, which is now finally falling apart at the seams. Bulgaria has already halted military aid to Ukraine from army warehouses, refused to participate in the Special Tribunal on Russian aggression, and blocked sanctions against Patriarch Kirill.

But playing the neutrality card while missiles and drones are raging off its own shores will no longer work.

Iliana Yotova – a pro-Russian ally of the pro-Russian prime minister

A political portrait of Iliana Yotova, the frontrunner in Bulgaria’s presidential election, mirrors the policies of Prime Minister Rumen Radev. In 2016 and 2021, they won the presidential race as a duo – he as president and she as vice president.

In January 2026, Radev became prime minister, leaving Yotova to temporarily lead the country. Now she is running for the presidency and the potential distinction of becoming the first female president in Bulgarian history. Formally, Yotova is running as an independent candidate, but she is clearly backed by Radev’s “Progressive Bulgaria” party and the Socialists. Therefore, on November 1, 2026, Bulgarians will be evaluating not so much her as a person as the direction of the current government.

Final debate among Bulgarian presidential candidates on October 29 / Screenshot from the BNT broadcast

In foreign policy, the candidate mirrors the rhetoric of the official Sofia line: she advocates for negotiations with Moscow and rejects military aid to Kyiv, blocking Bulgaria’s participation in the security “coalition of the willing.” Even after drones attacked civilian ships in the Black Sea in October, her reaction amounted to vague calls for a “moratorium on strikes.” And during the final debates, Yotova fully adopted the Kremlin’s playbook:

“We don’t just want a ceasefire; we want real peace. Russia should be listened to. You must talk to Putin to end the war,” Yotova believes.

Andrey Gyurov – a pro-European candidate who supports Ukraine

Against this backdrop, Yotova’s opponent – Andrey Gyurov – positions himself as a tough alternative to the system built by Rumen Radev. In February 2026, amid a severe political crisis, Yotova was forced to appoint him as acting prime minister, and he served at the head of the interim government until May.

Now Gyurov is running for president with the support of the “Continuing Change – Democratic Bulgaria” coalition, emphasizing that the head of state must act as a check and balance on the government, rather than blindly going along with it.

During his brief tenure as head of the Bulgarian government, Gyurov proved himself to be a level-headed and conscientious politician / photo – Office of the President of Ukraine

His position on Ukraine is as clear and uncompromising as possible.

In his short time in office, Gyurov has managed to do a great deal to help Ukraine. As acting prime minister, Andrei Gyurov signed a bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, and now openly calls Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine illegal. In response to the attacks in the Black Sea, the politician is demanding concrete action from NATO to protect the Bulgarian coast, and he directly blames Sofia’s passivity for the latest strikes:

“This escalation followed our timid response a few days ago. After a week of disputes within the ruling party over whether the drones were Russian or not” – Gyurov is not afraid to call a spade a spade.

The results could affect Bulgaria’s image

The main intrigue of the second round is not so much the office of head of state (the president’s powers in Bulgaria are largely ceremonial) as the country’s international image.

The election is set to reveal whether the public is satisfied with the government’s attempts to “sit on two chairs.” A prime example of this image failure was the summoning of Russian Ambassador Mitrofanova following the first drone attacks: the Kremlin then cynically deflected responsibility, blaming a “third party” for everything.

Given that Russia has officially placed Bulgaria on its list of unfriendly countries and is simultaneously methodically undermining its economic interests in the Black Sea, the policy of maneuvering no longer works. Moreover, maintaining neutrality when the country has been part of the Western world for two decades is absurd.

According to the analyst, playing the role of the “weakest link” on the Alliance’s southern flank is costing Sofia too much. It is time to set aside fears and follow the example of neighbors who act firmly and uncompromisingly.

What These Elections Mean for Ukraine

Although Bulgaria’s foreign policy is determined by the government, the figure of the president carries enormous symbolic weight. A victory for the pro-Western Andrey Gyurov would create a powerful counterweight to Prime Minister Radev’s pro-Russian camp, as the politician has already demonstrated his stance through action by signing a security agreement with Kyiv. Conversely, a victory for Iliana Yotova would definitively cement Sofia’s status as an ambiguous partner, with the presidential administration and the government speaking with one voice in favor of “peace on the Kremlin’s terms.”

Dimitar Keranov emphasizes that Yotova’s talk of a “diplomatic settlement” is merely a smokescreen for the aggressor’s demands.

The expert warns: if Yotova wins, Sofia will continue to block the transfer of weapons from military depots, ignore the Special Tribunal, and selectively obstruct sanctions in Brussels. However, Bulgaria will not become a direct enemy – its powerful defense industry will continue to serve Kyiv’s needs. Instead, President Gyurov would become Ukraine’s most important public advocate and institutional safeguard.