The Blue Wave Defeats MAGA and Offers Hope for a Return to Normalcy: What Trump's Defeat Means for Ukraine

The Democrats effectively "crushed" the Republicans – particularly Trump's closest allies – in the congressional elections. As of Wednesday evening, CNN projects that Democrats will win 54 seats in the Senate and 231 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. It’s a landslide.

Republican candidates backed by Trump lost even in traditionally Republican states. In Texas, Republicans lost for the first time in 38 years; in Kansas, for the first time in 94 years; and in South Carolina, for the first time in 28 years. The Democratic “blue wave” has effectively swept across the entire United States, and at the local level, Democratic governors have won in many states.

24 Channel analyzed how the humiliating defeat of Trump and his allies might affect Ukraine.

The Democrats’ New “Cards”

The new U.S. Congress will not begin its work until January 3, 2027. More precisely – ONLY then, since until then, Trump supporters will continue to dominate both chambers (if, of course, they choose to remain in those positions). Because now the balance of power on Capitol Hill has changed dramatically.

Donald Trump, who has effectively become “a lame duck,” will now have to take the Democrats’ views into account. This applies, in particular, to support for Ukraine, the negotiation process, and cozying up to Russia.

The Democrats will be able to blackmail Trump themselves by blocking the budget process – including a government “shutdown” – if he decides once again to side with Russia and strike new business deals with the Russians before the war against Ukraine has ended.

Trump will have to take his Democratic colleagues' views into account...if he wants to push any laws through the U.S. Congress. He will have to negotiate and make concessions; otherwise, the U.S. president will not only be unable to implement his policies but will effectively “bury” the U.S. government and leave all federal employees – including U.S. military personnel – without pay.

Even Trump's favorite newspaper is lashing out at him / the latest cover of the New York Post

Incidentally, this has already happened during Trump’s presidency, even when the Republicans held a small but formal majority in both chambers. In the fall of 2025, the government “shutdown” lasted 43 days – from October 1 to November 12. At that time, Trump set a record in American history. In the Senate, Republicans held 53 of 100 seats, but 60 votes were needed to overcome procedural obstruction (the so-called filibuster) on most funding bills.

The pro-Trump majority in the House of Representatives was slim. Moreover, some Republicans sabotaged the passage of the budget. Now Trump will find himself in a worse situation – the Democrats will control both chambers, so he will have to make concessions to them or “shut down” the U.S. government and force it to operate on a self-sustaining basis.

“Diesel Deal” in Serious Doubt

On October 9, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump reached an agreement with Putin to supply Russian diesel fuel to global and U.S. markets. As we can already see today, this “deal with the devil” had no effect whatsoever on diesel fuel prices in the U.S.; on the contrary, it likely further undermined the approval ratings of Trump himself and the Republicans.

As is well known, on the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats led by Senator Jeanne Shaheen sent letters to major U.S. banks (Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley) and the administrations of key ports (Texas, New York, and New Jersey), demanding that they preserve all documents related to transactions or potential deals involving Russian diesel fuel. The Democrats reminded the businesses that such a deal would violate a law passed in 2022 that explicitly prohibits the import of Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products into the U.S.

The Democrats, who now hold a majority in both chambers, will be able not only to conduct investigations and hearings, but also to directly ban the import of Russian diesel into the U.S. by passing a corresponding law. Of course, Trump retains the right to veto, which he has promised to use actively; however, by vetoing Democratic initiatives, Trump is also blocking his own “perks.”

Democrats will also have every opportunity to make life difficult for Trump’s favorites in the administration and in the private sector. Experts are already saying that attention should be paid to lawyers, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and “tech moguls,” including Elon Musk. And while there’s no need to worry too much about Musk, the “war minister” is guaranteed to be grilled very thoroughly – both about the war with Iran, which shows no signs of ending, and about the dismissal of professional generals, and especially about the sabotage of military aid to Ukraine.

Military Aid for Ukraine

Democrats may also resume direct arms deliveries to Ukraine at the expense of the U.S. budget. Democratic Congressman Gregory Meeks, who will chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee, introduced a bipartisan bill on October 16 to block Trump’s plan to return Russian diesel fuel to the global market. In addition, Democrats may plan to resume direct military support for Kyiv using U.S. budget funds.

As of today, Ukraine receives weapons under the PURL program. The Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) is a joint U.S.-NATO initiative that allows European countries and other partners to pay for the purchase of U.S. weapons for Ukraine. Europeans pay, Americans sell, and NATO coordinates it all. In 2025, the Donald Trump administration changed its approach to funding military support for Ukraine. Since then, all arms deliveries to Ukraine from the U.S. have been funded exclusively by European taxpayers.

Thus, the Democrats’ victory in the midterm elections is clearly good news for Ukraine. Trump will have to take the Democrats into account on issues related to the budget, aid to Ukraine, and the negotiation process, which will contribute to a more balanced approach to these matters. Trump’s inner circle – Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and others – will have to “tone down their ambitions” regarding business deals with Russia, as they will soon be summoned to congressional hearings regarding clear conflicts of interest.

The Democrats, in turn, have gained significant leverage in the form of the budget process and the need for their approval. The U.S., of course, is entering a phase of political crisis and protracted negotiations, but Ukraine certainly stands to gain from this. A more balanced approach to negotiations with Russia, blocking the resumption of trade relations between the U.S. and Russia, and stepping up aid to Ukraine – from now on, the Democrats will have significant influence over all these matters.

Of course, none of this will happen overnight; moreover, Trump will certainly try to strike back and may once again target Ukraine for revenge. However, the U.S. president’s resources and capabilities will dwindle with each passing day. That’s how democracy works.