Washington Is Playing by New Rules: What Lies Ahead for Ukraine After the US Election

The political landscape in the U.S. could work in Ukraine’s favor, as the results of the midterm elections could change not only the balance of power in Washington but also the fate of U.S. aid to Kyiv. At the same time, the loss of influential allies, Donald Trump’s stance, and negotiations with Russia leave a great deal of uncertainty.

Political analyst Oleksandra Filippenko explained in an exclusive interview with 24 Channel how changes in the U.S. administration could accelerate support for Ukraine, why Melania Trump’s humanitarian mission matters, and what Vladimir Medinsky’s appearance at the Abu Dhabi talks signifies.

A Shift in the Political Balance: An End to the Blockade on Aid

A record number of Americans – more than 50 million – have voted early in the U.S. election. According to political scientist Oleksandra Filippenko, the election results could radically change the pace of decision-making regarding Ukraine.

The main intrigue centers on the House of Representatives and the Senate. If the Democrats manage to secure a majority in the lower chamber of Congress, this will fundamentally change the process for advancing pro-Ukrainian initiatives.

Incidentally, on November 3, the midterm congressional elections took place, which will determine the extent to which Donald Trump will be able to advance his policies over the next two years. The Democrats have already secured control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, dealing a significant defeat to the Republicans, although vote counting is still ongoing in some districts.

The expert recalls the situation with the bill on aid to Ukraine, which was deliberately designed to pass. During the final vote, it received 311 votes (with 218 needed for passage and 290 to override a presidential veto).

However, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a member of the MAGA faction, artificially blocked its consideration for a long time. With the change in committee leadership, such delays will no longer be possible: Democrats will be able to immediately bring resolutions and bills related to support for Kyiv or the implementation of the Lindsey Graham Act to a vote.

Full interview with Filippenko: watch the video

The factor of personalities versus public opinion

A number of experienced Republicans who have consistently supported Ukraine are leaving Congress, including Mitch McConnell, Tom Tillis, John Cornyn, and Michael McCaul. Despite the loss of influential allies, Filippenko emphasizes that the key driver of support remains not the positions of individual politicians, but the opinion of the American public.

Americans clearly express their sympathies regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine. Given the pragmatic political culture in the U.S., members of Congress are guided by the demands of their constituents.

If support for Ukraine remains a popular issue, politicians are quick to seize the initiative to score political points. The conservative electorate also plays a significant role: right-wing media outlets, such as Newsmax, actively cover events in Ukraine – particularly humanitarian missions in the occupied territories – which keeps the Republican voter’s attention focused on the Ukrainian issue.

Melania Trump’s Humanitarian Efforts: Saving Lives or Political Publicity?

Melania Trump's unexpected activity has become a distinct vector of U.S. policy toward Ukraine. The First Lady has already helped reunite five groups of Ukrainian children with their families and plans to deliver a speech about the humanitarian mission in Oleshky. Filippenko explains this initiative through the lens of hard-nosed political pragmatism.

For Donald Trump, his wife’s humanitarian work is a powerful tool for cleaning up the family’s reputation. The expert points to serious reputational threats facing Trump’s inner circle: the financing of Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding by Umar Kremlev and information from the book *Princes and Thieves* suggesting that Russia’s GRU had access to Jared Kushner’s phone screen. Against the backdrop of these scandals, the image of Melania Trump rescuing Ukrainians from occupation creates a much-needed positive contrast.

However, the political scientist emphasizes: no matter how cynical the Trump administration’s motives may be, if this PR stunt leads to the actual release of civilians, the return of deported children, or local ceasefires, it has undeniable value for Ukraine.

Negotiations in Abu Dhabi: A Signal from the Kremlin

In parallel with the U.S. election process, Russia is attempting to shape its own negotiating track. The appointment of Vladimir Medinsky as head of the Russian delegation to negotiations in Abu Dhabi is a telling indicator.

According to Filippenko, the American side is well aware that Medinsky is the author of propaganda history textbooks who makes no real decisions. His presence indicates that the Kremlin’s intentions regarding a global settlement are not serious.

At the same time, even such contacts can be useful if they concern the exchange of prisoners of war or the release of civilian hostages. Russia is showing minimal changes in its diplomatic behavior (for example, Putin’s phone calls with representatives from Finland and Norway), which may be the result of pressure from the U.S.

Although no major breakthroughs or the signing of peace agreements are expected in the near future, any progress on humanitarian issues remains a critically important area of focus.