Ukraine has temporarily suspended strikes on Russian oil refineries but continues to target facilities critical to the production of fuel and missile weapons. Kyiv has proposed three options for agreements regarding oil refineries to the United States; however, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, none of them have been implemented yet.
popular videos
Host Ihor Gavryshchak, appearing on 24 Channel, analyzed the possible reasons for the pause and explained why strikes on Russian oil refineries could resume after the U.S. elections. He also assessed the prospects for increased pressure on Donald Trump, the Kremlin’s new demands regarding NATO, and the danger of territorial concessions in Donetsk.
Russia Is Losing Key Production Facilities
Ukrainian defense forces struck three targets simultaneously in the Voronezh region. The targets included the Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant, the Northern Bridge, and the Voronezh Aircraft Manufacturing Joint-Stock Company, which modernizes Il-96 aircraft, specifically the Il-96-400M.
Attacks on synthetic rubber plants have become more frequent over the past week. Previous targets included “Omsk Rubber” and a plant in Togliatti, and now Voronezh has been added to the list. Such production facilities are important not only for the automotive and chemical industries.
Gavryshchak highlighted two areas where Ukrainian strikes could impact the capabilities of the Russian army.
Solid propellants and additives. These are the indispensable components of these facilities, which the Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively targeting. A huge number of Russian missiles, including the “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles, run on solid propellants
Specifically, this refers to methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), which is used to increase the octane rating of gasoline. Following previous attacks on oil refineries, Russia has already lowered its fuel quality requirements to the Euro-2 standard, and damage to additive production facilities could further complicate the production of gasoline with the required specifications.
At the same time, Ukrainian drones are increasingly targeting several facilities at once in a single region. In the Voronezh region, enterprises in two different industries and transportation infrastructure were hit.
Storm Shadow Strikes Missile Plants
In addition to petrochemical plants, Ukraine is attacking factories that manufacture components for Russian weapons. On October 23, the “Proton” plant in the Oryol region was struck, and on October 25, the “Energia” plant in Yelets, Lipetsk region, was hit.
British Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used in both attacks. At least seven strikes were reported at the “Energia” facility, and footage released showed damage to the production buildings.
For years, the Russian Federation has been threatening London with missile strikes. At the same time, British missiles have been operating with great confidence on Russian territory. “Storm Shadow” missiles struck ‘Proton,’ and ‘Storm Shadow’ missiles also struck ‘Energia,’
The “Energia” plant specializes in the development and production of chemical power sources. Its products, particularly batteries, are used in various Russian weapons systems, including the “Iskander-M,” “Kinzhal,” “Zircon,” and “Pantsir.”
Damage to such production facilities makes it difficult to supply the Russian military-industrial complex with the components needed to manufacture missiles. This effort is particularly important due to the shortage of interceptor missiles for Ukraine’s air defense.
Rather than relying solely on intercepting ballistic missiles after they have been launched, Ukraine is attempting to strike facilities that produce the missiles themselves and their key components.
Congress May Restrain Trump
The U.S. midterm congressional elections will take place on November 3. According to estimates by nonpartisan American analysts cited by Gavryshchak, the Democrats have a good chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives and could contend for control of the Senate.
A change in the composition of Congress could influence the policies of Donald Trump’s administration in several ways. According to Reuters, Democrats are considering limiting funding for military operations in the Middle East and increasing support for Ukraine.
The budget authority of lawmakers will be particularly significant. They can influence defense spending, Pentagon funding, and the implementation of certain White House decisions.
Another issue that could become the subject of investigations is the Trump administration’s agreements regarding Russian diesel fuel.
There will be investigations, and people will be summoned to hearings. And this is a tremendous lever of pressure on the White House. Believe me, after November 3, things will be very, very difficult for Trump
Influential members of the Democratic Party are already demanding that major banks and ports preserve documents related to the possible import of Russian diesel fuel. If the Democrats gain control of at least one chamber of Congress, scrutinizing these agreements could become one of their priorities.
At the same time, a potential Democratic victory should not automatically be seen as a guarantee that all military aid to Ukraine will be restored. Their positions on funding Kyiv vary, and some political initiatives may primarily be a way to exert greater control over the Trump administration.
Separately, there is discussion of cutting spending on operations against Iran and reviewing support for Israel. Such decisions could alter the allocation of U.S. budgetary resources, but will depend on the results of the vote and the positions of both chambers.
Putin Issues an Ultimatum to NATO
In upcoming negotiations with the U.S. and Ukraine, the Kremlin may once again raise the issue of reducing NATO’s military presence in Europe. According to The Telegraph, as cited by the host, Moscow is considering a return to the demands it made even before the full-scale invasion.
This involves limiting the Alliance’s presence in accordance with the 1997 configuration. Such a demand affects the security of Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland, which joined NATO in 2023.
Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov unexpectedly stated that Moscow would like to discuss the future security architecture not only with the United States but also with European states. Previously, the Kremlin had largely insisted on direct contacts with Washington, attempting to exclude Kyiv and European allies from the decision-making process.
“As always, the Kremlin is making unrealistic demands. Russia is trying to achieve more through diplomacy in the war with Ukraine because nothing is working out on the military front,”
He doubts that European countries will agree to such demands, since NATO provides not only a military presence but also joint defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and coordination of armed forces.
Ushakov has already warned that he does not expect significant progress from the upcoming meeting, calling it more of a tentative step. At the same time, Russia continues to make demands that go far beyond the immediate cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Three Conditions Regarding Oil Refineries
According to Gavryshchak’s observations, the most recent strike on a major Russian oil refinery took place on October 8, when the Volgograd oil refinery was attacked. Since then, Ukrainian forces have continued to strike petrochemical and military facilities, but he has not recorded any new attacks directly on oil refineries.
The U.S. administration has repeatedly demanded that Kyiv cease strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Trump himself has publicly linked Ukrainian attacks to rising diesel prices, although the situation on the global market also depends on hostilities in the Middle East.
According to the host, the U.S. may use Ukraine’s dependence on military-technical aid to increase diplomatic pressure.
“It’s clear that there are certain levers of influence. Perhaps it’s Starlink, perhaps the sharing of intelligence, perhaps the sale of weapons through the NATO PURL account,”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine had proposed three options to Washington under which it might agree not to attack Russian oil refineries. The first is a mutual energy ceasefire, under which Russia would also cease strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The second involves the possibility of using Starlink satellite communications to strike Russian ballistic missile launchers directly on Russian territory. The third is a significant increase in the supply of interceptor missiles for the Patriot systems.
According to the president, the U.S. has not yet implemented any of these options. At the same time, Washington has eased some of the sanctions restrictions on Russian diesel fuel, and the Ukrainian military has encountered problems with satellite communications.
Some questions also arose due to interruptions in receiving information about Russian ballistic missile launches between October 13 and 18. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied that the relevant support had been suspended, but conflicting reports about its timeliness persisted.
The Telegram channel Ukrainian Context, which the host links to Kyrylo Budanov’s inner circle, reported that the pause in strikes on the oil refinery may be the result of requests not only from American partners but also from other partners of Ukraine. According to this information, the pause is temporary while Kyiv awaits a response to its proposals.
Gavryshchak speculated that the attacks could resume after the U.S. election on November 3. At the same time, there is currently no specific date set for such a decision.
Russian refineries are unable to keep up with repairs
Following previous Ukrainian strikes, Russian oil refineries have faced serious production problems. Oil refining at Rosneft’s facilities has dropped by about a third compared to previous levels.
Repairs to damaged equipment are complicated by sanctions, a shortage of Western components, and the need to source replacements through intermediaries. According to the host, Chinese alternatives do not always meet the required quality standards, and their delivery requires additional time and funds.
He noted that Russian companies are now facing a problem regarding the economic feasibility of repair work.
As soon as repairs are completed, another strike occurs. And this becomes unprofitable. The strikes have already reached such a level that very soon there will be nothing left to repair. We’ll have to rebuild from scratch
He cited the Tuapse, Ryazan, and Syzran refineries as examples. According to Bloomberg reports mentioned in the review, these facilities have been idle for months or have been operating at significantly reduced capacity.
The Tuapse refinery, according to the data cited, has not been operating since April. The Ryazan refinery has been unable to resume stable operations following damage sustained in the spring, and the Syzran refinery has spent most of the last six months either idle or operating at less than one-third of its capacity.
Problems with the production of finished petroleum products are forcing Moscow to rely more heavily on crude oil sales. This is changing the structure of Russian exports and limiting opportunities to profit from refined fuels.
Withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast Threatens Defense
The U.S. administration continues to discuss territorial concessions as a possible path to ending the war. In particular, Marco Rubio has called the Donetsk region the central issue in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
Gavryshchak drew attention to a map of Ukrainian fortifications published by French military analyst Clément Molin. It clearly shows a dense network of defensive positions in the area around Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Druzhkivka.
This is one of the best-prepared defensive zones that Ukraine has been building over a long period of time. Therefore, a possible withdrawal of troops from these cities would mean the loss not only of territory but also of fortifications that help contain the Russian offensive.
According to Trump’s plan, Ukraine is supposed to withdraw from these fortifications, and then there will simply be peace, friendship, and economic prosperity for Ukraine, as promised by the White House. This is unrealistic
The map shown also marks defensive lines beyond the current fortified areas, though they are less dense. Withdrawing from prepared positions would force Ukrainian units to organize their defense under more difficult conditions.
Vucic’s Defeat Will Not Change Serbia
Following the parliamentary elections in Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat, and the task of forming a new parliament and government will now fall to the winners of the election. The opposition “Student List” gained enough support to prevent the former president from realizing his plan to return to power as prime minister.
However, a change in political leadership will not necessarily mean that Belgrade will quickly distance itself from Moscow. According to Gavryshchak, representatives of the new political force have already stated that they do not plan to impose sanctions against Russia.
Another risk for Ukraine could be the winners’ stance on arms exports to conflict zones.
It would seem that pro-Russian Serbia will finally get on the right track. No, it won’t. The new political force has already stated that it has no intention of imposing sanctions against Russia and wants to stop selling weapons to conflict zones
Under the previous administration, Serbian companies produced artillery shells that were shipped to Ukraine via intermediaries and third countries. The industry employed about 21,000 workers, and exports generated significant revenue for the Serbian budget.
The cessation of such supplies could affect the Ukrainian military’s access to ammunition. At the same time, Serbia remains a candidate for European Union membership, creating a contradiction between its aspirations for European integration and its reluctance to join the sanctions policy against Russia.
Gavryshchak suggests that Brussels may respond to this course of action by increasing political pressure or revising the pace of Serbia’s European integration. For now, however, the new leadership shows no willingness to abandon its traditionally close relations with Moscow.
Gavryshchak on Ukraine’s three conditions regarding the oil refinery: watch the video
Related topics:
If you find an error on this page, select it and press Ctrl + Enter