A Shift in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Tactics and Gasoline from India: How New Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries Are Undermining Putin’s Economy

After a pause of nearly two weeks, Ukrainian forces resumed massive attacks on Russia’s oil refining industry. In just one week, about six successful strikes were carried out against key facilities, including the Afipsky Refinery – the largest in southern Russia – as well as plants in the Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, and Ryazan regions.

Israeli military journalist Sergei Ausländer told 24 Channel that the main change was not the number of attacks, but a fundamentally new approach to selecting targets within the facilities themselves.

The New Strategy: Paralysis Instead of Precision Strikes

Previously, strikes were mostly directed at complex and expensive facilities – such as catalytic cracking units – which are responsible for producing high-octane fuel.

However, Russian refineries are now switching en masse to the production of low-quality fuel (Euro 2, 3, and 4 standards), so the destruction of individual high-tech units has lost its former effectiveness.

In response, Ukrainian forces have begun striking across the entire refinery grounds, deliberately destroying inter-shop pipelines.

An oil refinery is a complex system of pipes through which raw materials are pumped between production stages. The destruction of these pipelines disrupts the smooth operation of the entire facility.

Although pipes are easier to repair than unique imported equipment, the regularity of such strikes creates constant problems and forces the Russians to spend precious resources on continuous repairs.

The Scale of Economic Losses

Oil refining remains the economic foundation of Putin's regime, and the losses from the attacks are already in the tens of billions.

According to estimates by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (as of the end of September), Russia's economic losses have reached $23 billion. Of the 38 facilities attacked, 15 were completely shut down, and another 12 significantly reduced production. At the affected plants, processing volumes have fallen by more than 50%.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms this trend.

In June, Russian refineries were processing 3.8 million barrels of oil per day – the lowest figure in the last 20 years and 30% less than before the systematic attacks began. Although Russia managed to partially restore volumes to 5 million barrels by the end of October, a new wave of attacks in November will inevitably cause these figures to plummet again.

In addition to direct losses from infrastructure destruction, the Russian economy is suffering colossal indirect losses that are difficult to quantify.

For example, Hours-long lines at gas stations indicates that thousands of people are being pushed out of the economic process: they are not working, not creating added value, and not spending money.

Furthermore, the switch to low-quality fuel with a high sulfur content has a delayed, devastating effect – it will inevitably lead to widespread breakdowns of modern car engines across the country.

A country that is little more than a gas station without its own gasoline

Systematic reduction of processing capacity has already triggered a crisis in Russia’s domestic market.

Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices in Russia have risen by approximately 20%, and diesel prices by 18%. Supply disruptions have been reported in 92% of Russian regions.

To make up for fuel shortage, Russia is forced to import fuel from Belarus and Kazakhstan at inflated prices, as suppliers are well aware of the hopelessness of the situation and are dictating their own terms.

It has reached the point of absurdity: Russia is buying Indian gasoline, produced from Russian oil, and transporting it by tanker halfway around the world to Murmansk. The logistics of such imports are extremely costly and are further complicated by a shortage of rail tank cars.

The Failure of the Diesel Deal

Amid its domestic crisis, Russia attempted to implement a bizarre scheme involving exports of diesel fuel to the United States, from which sanctions had allegedly been lifted.

However, this initiative failed completely. None of the tankers that set sail ever unloaded at U.S. ports: some turned back halfway, while others headed for Algeria or Brazil.

The reason is simple – refuses to buy Russian fuel ’s private market.

Buyers fear secondary sanctions and political investigations. As a result, this attempt to circumvent the restrictions resulted only in reputational damage, without bringing any benefit to the Russian budget.

What’s Next: Three Scenarios

There are several possible outcomes for the situation surrounding Russian oil refining.

• The first – the worsening of the crisis: Ukrainian attacks continue systematically, leading to a further decline in refining, rising prices, and a collapse of logistics.
• The second is a “recovery sine wave”: the Ukrainian Armed Forces take a break, Russia partially restores its refineries, after which new drones arrive and the cycle repeats.
• The third is a cessation of strikes, which is the least likely scenario, as it is tied to a hypothetical end to the war.

At the same time, any talk of peace in exchange for territory (for example, the surrender of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) is an illusion.

None of the proposed plans guarantees a stable peace. The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from, say, Sloviansk or Kramatorsk would merely give Russia time to regroup, after which the fighting would resume.

The aggressor does not want compromises, but rather complete surrender; therefore, halting attacks on Russia’s economic base currently seems impossible.

Israeli military journalist on Russia’s problems: video