The Belarusian regime uses political prisoners and foreigners as leverage against the West, and potential agreements on potash could bring Minsk billions in revenue. At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko’sgrowing alignment with Moscow creates new risks for Europe amid the possible deployment of Russian ballistic missiles in Belarus.
popular videos
Pavel Latushko, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, explained in an exclusive interview with 24 Channel how Lukashenko is bargaining with the West, why Europe is in no hurry to make concessions to Minsk, and what benefits the regime could gain from agreements regarding Belarusian potash. He also assessed the risks of deploying Russian missiles on Belarusian territory
Lukashenko and “human trafficking” in exchange for concessions on sanctions
Putin continues to shell Ukraine, launch ballistic missile strikes, attack markets in the Kharkiv region in broad daylight, and kill civilians. At the same time, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff calls him a humanitarian for releasing the American Mark Vogel, whom Putin himself had effectively been holding hostage. To what extent do these political maneuvers by the Kremlin resemble Lukashenko’s methods?
Lukashenko has opened the door to human trafficking, and we are watching it unfold in real time. Incidentally, he convened a meeting attended by the prime minister, the head of the KGB, the foreign minister, and Belarus’s permanent representative to the UN, Rybakov, who is the chief negotiator with the Americans. Once again, they discussed lifting sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners.
At the same time, Lukashenko doesn’t even call them political prisoners; instead, he says they are “referred to as political prisoners.” He is dissatisfied because not all the sanctions he wants lifted have been lifted. Lukashenko has paved the way for this kind of deal.
Previously, this mostly looked like a spy swap, but now it’s following the pattern of business deals. In fact, it’s a “hostages in exchange for the lifting of potash and diesel sanctions” formula.
Potash deals – that’s what you could call them, since Putin has already mentioned potash. Lukashenko was very keen to secure the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash. The Americans lifted them, after which Belarus shipped 30,000 metric tons of fertilizer, which has already arrived in New Orleans.
This refers to the “ agreements between the United States and Belarus,” under which Washington eases sanctions against Belarusian potash, and Lukashenko’s regime releases political prisoners.
It was reported today that another ship will set sail for the U.S. So, fertilizer is being shipped from Belarus – fertilizer that, among other things, holds the fate of Ukrainian children in its balance – while Lukashenko reaps political and economic dividends in return.
Why is he releasing American citizens? In January 2025, when Trump was just taking office, Lukashenko immediately released several U.S. citizens. It was a gesture toward the new American president: “Look, I’m ready to negotiate with you.”
Now Putin is doing the same thing. He’s giving Trump a gift, fully aware that Trump will speak publicly about it and that the American media will spread the news.
This is beneficial for the U.S. president, as he is currently going through one of the most difficult periods of his political career in terms of his approval ratings. At the same time, Lukashenko continues to express outrage over American demands to end the repression.
Let’s recall his most recent meeting with Trump’s special envoy, John Cole. Also present was American diplomat Panika, who previously worked at the OSCE mission and the U.S. Embassy in Minsk. In the 2000s, he was even detained while observing one of the Freedom Day marches in Belarus.
At the time, Lukashenko directly threatened him with re-detention if he violated Belarusian laws. Now, Panika is responsible for Belarus-U.S. relations and shaping the U.S. State Department’s position on Lukashenko.
Lukashenko blackmails other countries and takes foreigners hostage. A few months ago, a French citizen – a photographer who was taking pictures – was detained in Belarus. He was accused of espionage. Like the German citizen whom Lukashenko previously held captive, he could face the death penalty.
Lukashenko may issue an ultimatum to France: if you want to get your citizen back alive and prevent a death sentence, lift the sanctions. Today, he is directly hinting at this.
The European Union, however, has no intention of lifting the sanctions. Europe is maintaining a firm stance: without a change in internal repressive policies and an end to support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, there will be no concessions.
In contrast, Trump’s approach resembles a business deal, in which human lives are effectively being traded as well.
Lukashenko uses similar methods against Latvia as well. When the Americans urge the Latvian side to begin negotiations with Minsk, and Latvia refuses due to Belarus’s hybrid aggression, Lukashenkois sending groups of armed migrants into Latvian territory and provokes incidents.
The same thing is happening with Lithuania, where Belarusian hot-air balloons are disrupting airport operations. This is a method of state terrorism and blackmail: taking foreigners hostage, creating problems at the borders, and demanding negotiations in exchange for stopping these actions.
Full interview with Pavlo Latushko: watch the video
If we give in to such regimes after they blackmail us, there’s no guarantee they won’t do it again. We’ve already seen that agreements with them don’t work: they threaten, blackmail, and then break their promises.
This is clearly evident in the case of the release of political prisoners. On the one hand, it’s good that people are being released. On the other hand, the repression continues, which means this can be used as a bargaining chip indefinitely.
During the most recent release, 25 people were set free. This is certainly a positive development, but we had hoped that 200 to 300 people would be released. At the same time, after the release of these 25 people, Lukashenko has already managed to imprison twice as many.
The number of those recognized as political prisoners is growing. So where is the balance here? As a result, the number of political prisoners will continue to rise, while Lukashenko will keep demanding that the Americans lift new sanctions – for example, against “Grodno Azot” or other enterprises.
He will ask them to put pressure on Europe, while he himself continues to imprison people. How long can this go on? That is why both Brussels and Washington must act on principle: first, stop the repression; only then release the political prisoners.
Then there will be logic to it. Otherwise, it will turn into an endless cycle in which Lukashenko will constantly create new hostages to demand further concessions.
Why doesn’t Europe want to lift sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime?
You are in contact with high-ranking European diplomats and politicians. What approach do they propose to counter Belarus’s hybrid attacks – which are not stopping but only intensifying – while at the same time refusing to make concessions to Lukashenko?
Brussels has developed an approach supported by key countries, notably Germany and France. They see no grounds for lifting sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime due to the large-scale repression within the country and the hybrid attacks. Even if the attacks on Poland have stopped or decreased along the Lithuanian border, they continue against Latvia.
Let’s also recall the acts of sabotage in which the Belarusian special services were involved. In particular, during the “ the incident in Leipzig ” operation – when there was a plot to blow up a Ukrainian plane – at least two Belarusian citizens were identified as having participated in this special operation.
High-level officials in the French and German foreign ministries have confirmed to me that these countries have no intention of lifting sanctions against Lukashenko. At the same time, they do not want to intensify sanctions pressure, explaining that the U.S. negotiating track allows for the release of political prisoners.
But, in my opinion, these two approaches should be kept separate. We can apply the carrot-and-stick principle: Europe should wield the stick, while the Americans can continue negotiations. No matter how difficult it may be for us to accept these human trafficking schemes and potash-for-diesel deals, if they help free political prisoners, then so be it. Let this process continue.
But the main thing is for the Americans to secure an end to the repression. And to do that, we need to intensify sanctions pressure on Lukashenko’s regime. They only understand force.
If someone calls Putin a humanist, then why not call Lukashenko a humanist as well? We’re talking about people with the blood of Ukrainians and Belarusians on their hands, who have committed numerous international crimes.
It’s good that the European Parliament supported the International Criminal Court and awarded the Sakharov Prize. At the same time, we see inconsistency in U.S. policy. Last week, accusations of crimes against humanity – including torture – were leveled against Nicolás Maduro.
Yet Putin and Lukashenko are suddenly no longer considered international criminals, but humanitarians. Why? Because Belarus and Ukraine are located far from the United States. This is a very inconsistent policy.
Could Lukashenko earn up to a billion dollars from potash deals?
What real benefit does Trump gain from the potash deals with Lukashenko? Can Belarus earn enough from the easing of sanctions to make it profitable for the regime itself?
Let’s take a look at what Lukashenko stands to gain. According to our economists’ estimates, additional revenue from the deal with the U.S. could range from $600 million to $1 billion. When the U.S. imposed sanctions against “Belaruskali,” the company was forced to sell its products at dumping prices.
Before the sanctions, 107 countries – including China, India, and Brazil – purchased Belarusian potash fertilizers. However, buyers realized that purchasing products subject to U.S. sanctions could lead to secondary restrictions, so they demanded lower prices.
As a result, the price of potash fell by $50–80 per metric ton. Shipping costs also rose, as transportation companies took on additional risks. Financial institutions handling payments for potash also feared secondary sanctions and raised their transfer fees.
We calculated these losses based on the fact that last year Lukashenko exported 11 million metric tons of potash via Russia.
When the Belarusian regime claims there is a threat of global famine and demands that Europe lift transit restrictions, this does not reflect the actual situation. “Belaruskali” exported the same 11 million metric tons both before the U.S. sanctions and last year. The problem lies not in the volume of supplies to the global market, but in Lukashenko’s financial losses due to the sanctions.
According to our estimates, these losses could have reached one billion dollars. Now, the first ship carrying 30,000 metric tons of potash has already arrived in the U.S., cleared customs, and been unloaded. There is confirmation that the next ship will also set sail.
In effect, this is a signal to consumers around the world that they can once again purchase Belarusian potash without the previous risks associated with sanctions.
In addition, the U.S. has lifted sanctions against Rybakov, the head of “Belaruskali.” In my opinion, this is yet another concession by the Lukashenko regime. It is important to remember that the company laid off employees, imprisoned many, and forced others to leave the country. At the same time, “Belaruskali” finances the military-industrial complex and the Lukashenko regime, and the profits from its operations benefit, in particular, those in the Belarusian leader’s inner circle and his family.
There is another important aspect: The company is linked to the trafficking of Ukrainian childrenand the U.S. claim that the issue of protecting Ukrainian children is important to them, but it does not appear to have been raised during these talks.
Why not demand that Lukashenko provide lists of children who were taken to Belarus and then transported to Russia? Of course, he is unlikely to agree, as this could confirm his involvement in war crimes. At the same time, the European Union’s sanctions decision of February 26 explicitly states that “Belaruskali” is responsible for the illegal transfer of at least 2,050 Ukrainian children to a camp owned by the company.
Thus, the main question is not merely how much Trump stands to gain from these agreements. The easing of sanctions gives the Belarusian regime the opportunity to recoup the revenue it had lost due to the restrictions. At the same time, the question of accountability for the repression and the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children remains unresolved.
Why is Minsk afraid of Russian ballistic missiles being deployed in Belarus?
Lukashenko met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and stated that they need not worry about their obligations to defend the borders of the Union State. At the same time, Zelenskyy, citing intelligence reports, did not rule out that Putin would pressure Lukashenko to deploy ballistic missile systems in Belarus. It is not certain that Lukashenko will agree to this. What should we understand about this situation?
Let’s start with the meeting between Lukashenko and Belousov. When it comes to ballistic missiles, we need to understand that this is no longer 2022 or 2023, when Lukashenko provided Belarusian territory for massive missile strikes against Ukraine. At that time, over 800 missile strikes were launched against Ukrainian cities. That was a full-scale invasion.
Remember the A-50 aircraft, which commands combat aviation? It took off from Machulishchi near Minsk, but after our partisans, together with the Ukrainians, effectively damaged it, it never returned there.
Today, Lukashenko understands that Ukraine can respond. Lukashenko realizes that the presence of ballistic missiles on Belarusian territory will have dire consequences for him if they are used against Ukraine. Lukashenko bears personal responsibility for dragging Belarus into the war, providing its territory, and offering military assistance to Russia. He is committing a war crime – the crime of aggression.
However, at the moment, the logic behind deploying ballistic missiles in Belarus is not clear. Do you know why? Ukraine lacks systems to counter Russian ballistic missiles. Russia can launch strikes – which it considers effective – against Ukrainian cities, since Ukraine lacks Patriot missiles to intercept them.
Consequently, Russia can launch missiles both from its own territory and from temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands. Why, then, deploy ballistic missiles in Belarus and put an ally at risk?
But if Ukraine obtains the means to counter these missiles and is able to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, then the issue of using Belarusian territory will become more acute. After all, it is only about 150 kilometers from the Belarusian border to Kyiv. This raises the question: What will Lukashenko do? Will he be able to stand his ground and say, “No, I don’t want ballistic missiles”?
He will resist, because Madyar warned him. Remember when Brody spoke of “500 targets in Belarus”? Ukraine could theoretically strike Russian military infrastructure, military units, and facilities located on Belarusian territory.
Belarusian society will react negatively to this, and even Lukashenko’s inner circle won’t applaud the possible use of ballistic missiles from Belarusian territory. I’m convinced that Ukraine won’t forgive this.
If Lukashenko deploys ballistic missiles and attempts to use them, he will become a target for Ukraine. And Lukashenko is aware of this. It seems to me that Zelenskyy’s statement was a preemptive move. He essentially issued a public warning to Lukashenko: I am aware of these plans, but remember what we discussed – if you try to do this.
As a reminder, Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Alexander Lukashenko that the deployment of Russian ballistic missiles in Belarus would mean directly dragging the country into a war against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Kremlin may be pressuring Minsk to expand the use of Belarusian territory for airstrikes.
At the same time, Lukashenko continues to engage with the Americans, is trying to improve relations with the Europeans, but is simultaneously demonstrating his loyalty to Russia. How should we interpret his meeting with Belousov and the ongoing military exercises?
Lukashenko is playing both sides. He is trying to improve relations with the Americans, knocking on the Europeans’ door, but at the same time demonstrating to the Russians: “I am your best friend and completely devoted to you.” He claims that Belarus is fulfilling all its obligations, that a military contingent is stationed on its territory, that it is defending its western borders, and that it is preparing for war – even though it supposedly wants to avoid it.
In other words, Lukashenko is showing: “I’m doing everything you want me to do.” For example, it was announced today that a thousand militia units will be formed in Belarus. All these exercises, which we’ve been discussing broadcast after broadcast, are also intended to demonstrate military readiness and loyalty to Moscow.
The parties have agreed to hold the next “Union Shield” exercises in 2027. Previously, they were mainly held on Russian territory, with the exception of one of the first exercises, which took place in the Brest region. This time, they did not specify exactly where the exercises would take place, nor did they disclose the number of troops involved. They merely reported that the plan for the exercises had been approved.
Now let’s imagine that Russia proposes holding “Union Shield” in the occupied territories of Ukraine, closer to actual combat operations. For Lukashenko, this would be a challenge. Formally, he would have to fulfill his alliance obligations, but in reality, he would have to agree to send Belarusian troops into the line of fire of potential Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Incidentally, information was also released today stating that 418 Belarusian servicemen are studying at Russian military academies. In addition, 1,315 Belarusian servicemen have undergone training at the Joint Service Combat Training Center in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.
This potentially creates conditions for strengthening pro-Russian sentiments among the Belarusian military. There, they are taught not only military skills but also Russian ideology and the ideology of the so-called “special military operation.”
Thus, Lukashenko is effectively swearing allegiance to the Kremlin: “I am yours forever, Volodya; I am completely yours.” Belousov, for his part, stated that the international situation continues to deteriorate. But who brought it to this state? Who created all these military threats and is their root cause?
Belousov himself speaks of the deteriorating international situation, while Belarusian Defense Minister Khrenin has made no particular comments. But what can he say when he is essentially at Belousov’s beck and call?
Zelenskyy warned Lukashenko by taking preemptive action. Lukashenko will try to maneuver, but if Putin applies more pressure, will he be able to refuse? How might this threaten Lukashenko and the Belarusian economy? Russia could, after all, cut back on purchases and funding.
Undoubtedly, Russia has quite significant leverage. Up to 70% of Belarusian exports go to the Russian market. But this is a consequence of Lukashenko’s one-track policy. Currently, the Belarusian economy is growing by about 2%, but this growth is driven primarily by domestic demand.
Consumer demand is propping up the economy, thanks in part to agriculture: the harvest was the best it has been since 2019. There is virtually no growth in industry. In other sectors, people are being paid wages that are not backed by a corresponding increase in labor productivity.
In other words, consumer demand is overheating: people are spending money and buying goods, which is driving economic growth.
How long this will last is a big question. There is another line item in the Belarusian budget – “Free aid from foreign states.” Every year, the budget receives billions under this category. And it’s clear which country we’re talking about – Russia.
In fact, the Belarusian economy survives on Russian subsidies. So when I hear that everything is fine there – the curbs are painted, the grass is green – it’s worth remembering: Lukashenko receives this money from Russia. And Belarus pays for it with its national interests.
This interview has been abridged, corrected, and edited for better understanding by the audience.
Related topics:
If you find an error on this page, select it and press Ctrl + Enter