"They're afraid we'll burn everything down": Sheitelman on the new strikes on oil refineries and negotiations with Russia

The U.S. side has described the talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia in Abu Dhabi as productive, but does not promise a quick end to the war. At the same time, an unusual proposal has emerged to change the administrative boundaries of Ukrainian regions so that the Kremlin could declare that its territorial demands have been met.

Political strategist Mykhailo Sheitelman explained on 24 Channel why he doubts the feasibility of such a plan and what unexpected signal he saw in Gennady Zyuganov’s statement. He also suggested that Russia might agree to a limited energy ceasefire, discussed a possible change in the tactics of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, and assessed the Kremlin’s new ultimatums regarding NATO.

Negotiations in Abu Dhabi

Marco Rubio has described the talks in Abu Dhabi as productive but warned that a quick peace should not be expected. Zelenskyy also spoke of a complex process, while Russia is once again raising the issue of security guarantees. Is there any reason to expect a breakthrough after the first day of talks?

I’d start with the news about a possible change to the administrative boundaries of Ukrainian regions. This is probably the only real sensation to emerge from the talks. What’s interesting isn’t just the proposal itself, but also where such an idea might have come from.

Last year, as far as I recall, Member of Parliament Anna Skorokhod introduced a bill to change the boundaries of the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions. Specifically, it involved the possible inclusion of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the Kharkiv region, and Pokrovsk in the Dnipropetrovsk region. I don’t recall the exact number of the bill, but the idea itself was discussed long before the current negotiations.

Moreover, I received calls at the time from foreign experts who also proposed a similar option. In other words, this concept was discussed in various circles; it later appeared in the Verkhovna Rada, and now it is being linked to the proposals of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The logic behind the plan is to halt hostilities along the current front line, but to redraw the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk region so that the entire region would formally come under Russian control. Putin would then be able to declare that he had fulfilled his promise to seize the entire region, even though Ukraine would, in fact, retain control over those same cities.

Even Putin, for all his pettiness, I think, will realize that the whole world will laugh at him if he achieves his “victory” in this way. It seems to me that even the Russians will realize that we’ve simply trolled him.

Ukraine has no intention of recognizing any Russian territorial seizures. That is why I view this proposal as an attempt to find at least some way out of the negotiating impasse. Perhaps Trump’s team is hoping that this unusual legal construct will simultaneously halt hostilities and give the Kremlin an opportunity to declare that it has achieved its stated goal. But I don’t believe Putin will agree to such an obvious political ploy.

I wonder who exactly suggested this option to the Americans. Perhaps they came up with the idea on their own, or perhaps it was relayed through Kirill Dmitriev, who has already been involved in promoting other large-scale proposals regarding relations between Russia and the West. I don’t know for sure, but I wouldn’t rule out such a connection.

An article in *The Economist*, which discussed possible agreements, also noted what appeared to be a new flexibility on the part of Russia regarding security guarantees. And here I noticed one interesting development that may indicate that certain signals have indeed emerged within Russia.

Gennady Zyuganov spoke in the State Duma and called on Russians to pray for the negotiators who had traveled to Abu Dhabi. This is a rather unusual statement for the leader of the Russian Communists. After all, in Soviet times, one could be expelled from the Pioneers or the Komsomol for being religious, yet now the head of the Communist Party is suggesting that people pray for Vladimir Medinsky.

Zyuganov is calling on people to pray for Medinsky – not to ask Putin to agree, but specifically to pray that Medinsky reaches an agreement and that everything works out for him. This is a very interesting signal.

Zyuganov is an experienced Russian politician who has long been working within this system. I think he has a good sense of the mood among part of the population. The Communists used to be good at identifying what people wanted, and now the leader of the CPRF may be trying to voice public dissatisfaction with the protracted war.

At the same time, I don’t think Russian society is ready for a just peace with Ukraine. It shows no willingness to return the occupied territories or acknowledge responsibility for the aggression. But people may be exhausted by the consequences of the war and want it to end, if only to return to a normal daily life.

The Russian people do not want a genuine peace with Ukraine. They are not ready to return the stolen territories. But the Russian people have already raised their voices and are demanding an end to the war. And Zyuganov has placed himself at the head of these very people.

Perhaps his statement was coordinated with Putin’s administration. This is my assumption, but Zyuganov is too experienced a political operative not to understand the political significance of his own words. If such a statement was indeed coordinated, it could be a signal that the Kremlin is ready to make certain limited concessions.

Therefore, I do not rule out that the second day of negotiations will yield some result. Not a peace treaty or a complete cessation of hostilities, but, for example, an agreement on an energy truce. I have no grounds to claim that a decision has already been made, but such a turn of events seems possible.

New Strikes on Oil Refineries

You’re suggesting the possibility of an energy truce, even though Putin had planned to intensify strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector this fall and winter. What might have changed in his calculations?

I noticed one detail. Previously, the Russians would often launch a massive strike against Ukraine right on the night before a round of negotiations. It was a way to put pressure on our delegation. But this time, as far as I could tell, there was no such attack.

Of course, I could be mistaken or have missed something. Besides, the negotiations last two days, so the Russians might simply have postponed the strike until the following night. I don’t rule out that the Kremlin might want to demonstrate its strength once again and attack Ukrainian cities before the negotiations resume. However, so far we’ve seen a departure from the behavior we’ve come to expect.

Now let’s return to the energy standoff. When Putin was planning his winter campaign of strikes against Ukraine’s energy sector, he was counting on two factors. First, he hoped that Donald Trump would stop Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, and for a time, this was achieved. Second, although Ukraine’s previous strikes were effective, they typically put only parts of the facilities out of commission.

We were able to strike a primary oil refining unit with precision, cause a fire, and temporarily halt production. But the damage was not always extensive enough to prevent the refinery from resuming operations. With the latest attacks, according to reports I’ve seen, the situation has changed significantly.

If you’ve seen footage of the strikes on the last five refineries, even visually, everything looks completely different. With the exception of one case in Ufa, four out of five refineries, according to these reports, have been almost completely burned down. This is no longer a single fire at a single location.

Previously, damage was often concentrated in a single production unit. Now, in videos showing the aftermath of the attacks, numerous fire outbreaks are visible in different parts of the facilities. I’ve noticed that Russian sources themselves are also reporting on this change.

Our military command has not yet disclosed details of the relevant tactics, so I am relying specifically on Russian reports. According to their account, Ukraine may have acquired a new method of satellite communication with long-range drones, which allows for real-time adjustments to their operations while flying over Russia.

We previously reached out to Elon Musk, asking him to enable the use of Starlink over Russian territory. Such access would allow for real-time control of the drones. Now, some Russian authors claim that Ukraine may have found an alternative technological solution.

Specifically, they mention special equipment installed on drones that can operate via European satellites rather than through the SpaceX network. Among the possible suppliers, they mention a company from Israel; however, I do not know exactly which devices they are referring to, and I cannot confirm these reports.

Presumably, this refers to communication with geostationary satellites. They are located in much higher orbits than Starlink satellites. But I repeat: I do not have the technical details of this system, so I can only relay the version presented by Russian sources.

The Russians claim that we have managed to create an alternative to Starlink over Russian territory. I don’t know exactly which devices made this possible, but according to their account, our drones can now receive commands while in flight.

If this is indeed the case, this new capability explains why the strikes may have become significantly more effective. The drones receive not only a predefined route but also information that allows them to adjust their subsequent actions depending on the situation.

For example, let’s consider a hypothetical scenario in which a large group of drones is flying toward Samara. Some of them may be intercepted by Russian air defense, but the others – provided they maintain communication – are theoretically capable of taking new information into account and continuing to carry out their mission. Similarly, after one target is destroyed, the remaining drones could be redirected to other targets.

This is exactly how Russian sources explain the appearance of numerous fire outbreaks at the most recently attacked oil refineries. Instead of a single damaged process unit, the plant may sustain damage in several locations at once, which significantly complicates subsequent restoration efforts.

Previously, all drones could fly to a single facility, even if it had already been hit. But now, as the Russians write, it has become possible to change the mission. That is why we are seeing fires on a completely different scale at these plants.

I mentioned Ufa separately. In my opinion, the city’s remoteness may have influenced the outcome of the attack, as it is harder to reach. But regarding other facilities, Russian authors report much more severe damage than after previous strikes.

They also express concern that the continued use of such tactics could create critical problems for Russian oil refining. I cannot confirm the extent of the damage at each facility, but I believe that the change in the nature of the attacks deserves attention.

They’re afraid we’ll burn everything down. We’ll just burn everything down. Because now, if their reports are to be believed, we’re not talking about a single damaged facility, but about extensive destruction, after which it would be very difficult to restore the plant.

Therefore, a potential energy ceasefire would look very different to the Kremlin than it did a few months ago. Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s energy sector, but at the same time risks losing more and more of its own oil refining capacity. I suspect that this factor may also influence the Russian delegation’s position in Abu Dhabi.

Russia’s Ultimatums to NATO

Sergey Lavrov has once again accused Ukraine of failing to fulfill previous agreements and has begun speaking about European security. Is the Kremlin using the negotiations as a pretext to revive its demands on NATO and issue new ultimatums?

Of course. One simply needs to understand correctly what exactly the Russian leadership refers to as security guarantees. It is not offering to guarantee Europe’s security. On the contrary, Russia demands that European states guarantee its own security – and on the Kremlin’s terms.

Lavrov is essentially revisiting the documents that Moscow proposed to the West in late 2021. In those documents, Russia demanded a review of NATO’s military presence in the territories of states that joined the Alliance after 1997. This refers, in particular, to Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

Now, in my assessment, the Russian side is adding to this list demands regarding Sweden and Finland, which joined NATO after the start of the full-scale invasion. The Kremlin wants these countries to effectively be left outside the Alliance.

They are referring to a document that Lavrov wrote in 2021, calling for Europe to withdraw NATO troops from countries that joined after 1997. And now they are additionally demanding that Sweden and Finland be expelled from NATO. That’s their modest set of demands.

If a country truly seeks to end the war, it must discuss specific terms for a ceasefire. Instead, Russia is constantly expanding its list of demands, adding issues that go far beyond the scope of the Russia-Ukraine war.

This is how the Kremlin has been treating Donald Trump for quite some time. I remember saying at the beginning of his new presidential term that Putin would try to drag out negotiations, promise compromises, and give the impression of being ready for peace.

At the time, I thought the American president would grow tired of such behavior fairly quickly. I assumed this would happen in about half a year, back in the summer of 2025. But I was wrong: Trump kept returning to the negotiating table even after previous attempts had ended in failure.

A moment of disappointment did eventually come after the meeting in Anchorage. Trump was outraged by Putin’s behavior at the time, imposed new sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, and canceled the planned summit in Budapest. It seemed that he had finally realized the extent to which the Kremlin was exploiting his desire for a quick deal.

But later, the Russian side once again proposed new ideas and returned to talks about a wide-ranging agreement. And Trump once again showed interest in this process.

Putin will lie, wriggle out of situations, and pretend he’s ready for a truce, a ceasefire, and peace. I thought Trump would get tired of this within six months. But he fell for the new fairy tales all over again. And now, I’m afraid, things will only get worse.

I see no reason to believe that the current talks about a new European security framework signify a genuine willingness on Russia’s part to end its aggression. At the same time, I do not rule out individual agreements, particularly those related to humanitarian issues or energy. But these must be distinguished from a full-fledged peace settlement, which is not yet in sight.

Sheitelman on the Abu Dhabi talks: watch the video