Ukrainian defense forces continue to strike Russian military and industrial targets, but attacks on oil refineries have effectively paused. Meanwhile, the U.S. is discussing a possible easing of sanctions against a Russian investment fund, and Donald Trump is reporting progress in negotiations with the Kremlin.
In his analysis, 24 Channel host Ihor Havryshchak explained why Washington’s new economic agreements with Moscow could benefit Russia and how the U.S. congressional elections will affect the situation. He also discussed the successes of the Ukrainian military, the risks of the ceasefire in Oleshky, Putin’s statements regarding Elon Musk, and the Kremlin’s attempts to increase pressure on Ukraine through Europe.
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Ukraine Strikes a Key Chemical Plant
On the night of October 28, the Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the Novomoskovsk “Azot” plant in Russia’s Tula Oblast. It is one of the country’s largest chemical plants, part of the EuroChem group, and produces ammonia, urea, methanol, ammonium nitrate, and other chemicals.
Of particular significance is the production of nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, which can be used to manufacture explosives and ammunition. The Ukrainian military has already struck this facility on multiple occasions, and the damage inflicted could create problems for Russian industry.
At the same time, the Defense Forces are conducting operations aimed at driving Russian troops out of the occupied territories. Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the results of operations by the Second Corps of the Ukrainian National Guard, “Charter,” near Kupiansk, where Ukrainian defenders utilized the underground infrastructure of a gas pipeline.
According to the president, hundreds of Russian soldiers were killed during the operation, and more than 30 occupiers were taken prisoner. This refers to Operation “Veles,” which covered the area of Kupiansk, Holubivka, Lyman-Pershyi, and Vilshana.
Gavryshchak noted that the Russians had previously attempted to use the gas pipeline in this area to covertly move their units. The Ukrainian military took the terrain into account and planned their operations along an approximately 15-kilometer underground route.
In this era of warfare, dominated by drones, advancing such a distance is an absolutely phenomenal achievement. Our Defense Forces are proving that they are the sole guarantee of Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty
The successful operations near Kupiansk were a continuation of several important Ukrainian operations in 2026. Earlier, the Defense Forces liberated 26 settlements in the Komar area of Donetsk Oblast, and the Third Army Corps, under the command of Andriy Biletsky, carried out Operation “Vivaldi,” aimed at thwarting Russian plans in the Lyman direction.
These operations have different objectives, but they all hinder the Russian army’s advance. Strikes against logistics remain particularly important, as without them the occupiers cannot supply their units with equipment, ammunition, and reserves.
Ukrainian drones are disrupting Russian logistics
In the Dobropillia sector, where intense fighting continues, positions are being held by units of the National Guard’s First “Azov” Corps under the command of Denys Prokopenko. Russian troops are attempting to advance between Dobropillia and Druzhkivka but are suffering significant losses.
At the same time, Azov forces reported striking 100 trains that were supporting the Russian army’s logistical needs. The strikes were carried out using drone systems, particularly in the Donetsk, Yenakiieve, and surrounding areas.
Gavryshchak noted that such operations make it possible to disrupt the Russian troops’ supply lines far beyond the immediate front lines. This refers to the transportation on which the supply of ammunition, fuel, and military equipment depends.
“If you control the enemy’s logistics, you have an advantage in combat operations. One hundred trains is a truly significant achievement,”
Earlier, according to Gavryshchak, the actions of the Third Army Corps forced the Russians to move some of their logistics hubs back approximately 400 kilometers, all the way to the Voronezh region. This increases supply distances and makes it more difficult to quickly replenish supplies at the front lines.
Unmanned systems are being used more and more actively not only to destroy equipment and personnel but also to disrupt enemy transport routes. However, at the strategic level, another target of Ukrainian strikes remains crucial – the Russian oil refining industry.
A pause in strikes on oil refineries is helping Russia resume production
Despite attacks on chemical plants and military logistics, the most recent strikes on major Russian oil refineries took place back in mid-October. Gavryshchak recalled the strikes on the Volgograd refinery on October 8 and the Ryazan refinery on October 16.
He attributes this pause to pressure from the Donald Trump administration on Ukraine. According to him, the U.S. side insisted on limiting attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, even though Moscow had not ceased its strikes on Ukrainian cities and the energy sector.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg data cited by Gavryshchak, Russia has restored approximately 25% of its oil refining capacity and sold $2.7 billion worth of oil and petroleum products over the past week. These funds are flowing into the Russian economy, which continues to finance the war.
The issue of resuming strikes is particularly acute given the stance of Ukrainian society. Gavryshchak cited poll results showing that 80% of Ukrainians believe it is necessary to continue attacks on Russian oil refineries, even if the U.S. limits or halts aid to Kyiv.
We must strike oil refineries, because it is precisely the strikes against the Russian Federation’s oil refining industry that are forcing the Kremlin to scale back its economic initiatives. Putin’s coffers are losing hundreds of billions of dollars
He recalled that previous strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused fuel supply difficulties within Russia. At certain times, Moscow restricted the export of petroleum products, and lines formed at gas stations in some regions.
On October 15, Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about the need to resume strikes on Russian oil refineries. However, according to Gavryshchak’s assessment, Ukraine’s further decisions were complicated by its dependence on American military technology and weapons.
In particular, he mentioned previous restrictions on Starlink satellite communications and the transmission of information about Russian ballistic missile launches. The host also claimed that some of the weapons Ukraine had already paid for had not yet been delivered due to delays in the relevant decisions by the U.S. leadership.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to publicly criticize U.S. aid to Ukraine. During a speech in Texas, he again spoke of the alleged $350 billion that the Joe Biden administration had provided to Kyiv without receiving anything in return.
At the same time, the U.S. president announced a possible meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin and promised significant progress in diplomatic negotiations. However, Gavryshchak drew attention to another area of convergence between Washington and Moscow – a possible review of economic sanctions.
The U.S. is considering easing sanctions against a Russian fund
The Donald Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, headed by Kirill Dmitriev. According to Gavryshchak, The New York Times reported this, citing U.S. officials.
Restrictions against the fund were imposed in the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At the time, Washington believed that the fund’s access to the international financial system could help the Kremlin finance the war.
Former U.S. National Security Council official Eric Green, who handled Russian affairs during Joe Biden’s presidency, explained the importance of these sanctions by citing the fund’s ties to projects close to Putin.
Dmitriev now regularly engages in discussions with U.S. officials. Among his interlocutors are Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are also involved in discussions regarding potential agreements to end the war.
Gavryshchak noted that these officials were involved in drafting U.S. proposals, including a 28-point plan, the terms of which drew serious objections from Ukraine. However, he believes that the negotiations may have another dimension related to the economic interests of the participants.
“The Trump administration isn’t interested in where or how Russia will make money. They want to make money together with Russia,”
According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent Alex Rafoglu, whom the host cited, the American and Russian delegations are discussing a broader list of potential agreements in the energy and trade sectors.
These include projects on Sakhalin, cooperation with the Russian company “Novatek,” possible energy initiatives in Alaska, and supply routes for Russian fertilizers through Belarus. Some of these proposals also concern access to ports and trade infrastructure.
Gavryshchak suggested that economic cooperation could become a way for the Kremlin to gradually emerge from international isolation. At the same time, the possibility of opening new financial channels depends directly on Washington’s sanctions decisions.
The host links the intensification of such contacts to the approaching U.S. elections. In his view, Moscow may be attempting to create a favorable political landscape for Trump in exchange for the prospect of future economic concessions.
The Kremlin is creating the appearance of progress in negotiations
The U.S. midterm congressional elections will take place on November 3, and Donald Trump is keen to demonstrate foreign policy successes to his supporters. Havryshchak suggests that the Kremlin may exploit the U.S. president’s interest to advance its own economic demands.
He cited Moscow’s unexpected change in position regarding the trilateral talks as one sign of this behavior. Just about two weeks earlier, Russian officials, including Yuri Ushakov and Dmitry Peskov, had stated that no new contacts were being prepared.
However, Russia has now agreed to return to talks involving Ukraine and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi. Zelenskyy suggested that the next meeting could take place on November 10.
Gavryshchak believes that this shift in rhetoric primarily benefits Trump, who now has the opportunity to tell voters about the resumption of the peace process.
Trump offers Putin the lifting of sanctions, economic benefits, and a way out of isolation, while in return, Putin will help Trump try, at least in some way, to win the congressional elections on November 3
The day before the review, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held telephone conversations with Putin. The return of European leaders to direct communication with the Kremlin has added new diplomatic developments that the White House can highlight ahead of the elections.
However, an increase in the number of contacts does not mean that the parties have moved closer to mutually acceptable terms for ending the war. Russia continues to demand territorial concessions, while Ukraine refuses to withdraw its troops from the territories it controls in the Donetsk region.
“These negotiations resolve absolutely nothing. Nothing can be negotiated there because there’s no one to talk to,”
He noted that future meetings may take place without European representatives, despite the direct impact of Russian demands on European security. This raises additional questions about the format of the negotiations and who exactly will represent the interests of Ukraine’s Western partners.
Another development that the U.S. administration could use to demonstrate diplomatic success was the announcement of a humanitarian ceasefire in the area of the temporarily occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region.
The ceasefire in Oleshky may conceal new threats
The ceasefire in the Oleshky area was presented as the result of a humanitarian initiative involving Melania Trump. According to Gavryshchak, the agreement did indeed allow for a temporary reduction in the intensity of hostilities in that part of the Kherson region.
The ability to evacuate the civilian population is extremely important, as people have been living under occupation and in difficult humanitarian conditions for a long time. However, the host noted that residents of other settlements on the left bank, particularly Energodar, also need similar assistance.
At the same time, Moscow’s agreement to a local ceasefire raised questions for him. Throughout the full-scale war, Russia has repeatedly rejected humanitarian initiatives or violated agreements, yet now it has unexpectedly agreed to a ceasefire until November 1.
Putin couldn’t care less about his own Russians, let alone Ukrainians. But here, all of a sudden, he agreed to a cessation of hostilities
The evacuation route is the biggest cause for concern. According to information cited by the host, the Russian side is allowing civilians to leave Oleshky through territories that remain under occupation.
Havryshchak expressed concern that people might be prevented from entering territory controlled by Ukraine in this way. He linked these risks to Putin’s stance, as he continues to refer to the occupied Ukrainian lands as Russian and their residents as Russian citizens.
There is also a military aspect. According to reports from local residents and media sources cited by the host, active movement of Russian vehicles – including trucks and other cars – has been observed on the left bank of the Kherson region.
Havryshchak speculated that the occupiers might be using the lull in hostilities to regroup and build up their reserves. Of particular concern are Russian attempts to advance across the islands of the Dnipro River in poor weather conditions, when drone operations are hampered.
The worst part is that the Russians are clearing roads of mines and releasing our Ukrainians and children only into the occupied territories. Most likely, they will not let these civilians return to Ukraine
In his assessment, after the ceasefire ends on November 1, Russian troops may attempt to resume attacks using prepared positions and redeployed reserves. At the same time, how the situation develops will depend on the actual implementation of humanitarian agreements and the ability to ensure the safe evacuation of people.
However, the U.S. administration’s plans for cooperation with Russia may face resistance within the United States itself. Members of Congress are already raising questions about the legality of the new energy agreements and the preservation of documents related to them.
Congress is preparing audits of Russian agreements
U.S. congressional representatives oppose the possible resumption of purchases of Russian energy resources. Gavryshchak reported that lawmakers have appealed to banks, demanding that they retain documents related to energy agreements between U.S. and Russian entities.
He recalled the restrictions on imports of Russian energy resources imposed by the U.S. following the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. In his assessment, any resumption of such transactions would require legal justification and could become the subject of congressional investigations.
According to the host, some U.S. oil companies have also received warnings. Lawmakers want to determine whether new commercial agreements would violate existing sanctions and trade restrictions.
At the same time, bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress extends to the issue of military technology. Gavryshchak mentioned calls to allow the Ukrainian military to use Starlink for operations on Russian territory, particularly against positions from which missiles are launched at Ukraine.
The prospects for further reviews depend largely on the results of the November 3 election. Gavryshchak suggested that Democrats could gain control of the House of Representatives and strengthen their position in the Senate.
In that case, the Trump administration will face more active congressional oversight. Lawmakers will have the opportunity to initiate hearings on sanctions, energy contracts, and the role of members of the president’s inner circle in dealings with Moscow.
After the November 3 election, Trump will be reminded in no uncertain terms of all his utterly outrageous contacts and his decision to lift sanctions against Putin and the Russian Federation
He also did not rule out renewed discussions about impeaching the U.S. president. The House of Representatives can initiate the impeachment process, but removing the president from office requires the support of two-thirds of the Senate.
Gavryshchak acknowledged that securing such a majority would be difficult even if the Democrats were to win. However, the mere possibility of investigations could influence the White House’s decisions even before a formal change in the composition of Congress.
The relationships between Russian leadership and companies that receive large U.S. government contracts may become a separate focus of attention for U.S. lawmakers. In particular, new questions have arisen following Putin’s public statements about cooperation with Elon Musk.
Putin announced contacts with Elon Musk
During events related to Russian-African cooperation, Vladimir Putin publicly discussed relations with American technology companies. In particular, he called Elon Musk a genius and praised the satellite constellation created by SpaceX.
The Russian dictator noted that Musk has over 5,000 satellites in orbit, while Russia is only just beginning to develop its own low-Earth orbit satellite systems. Putin also emphasized the need to coordinate efforts so that satellite constellations do not interfere with one another.
“We are in close contact with our American partners, particularly with Mr. Musk, because in orbit it is very important not to interfere with one another and to maintain a certain discipline and order,”
Gavryshchak linked these remarks to previous issues with Starlink’s operations for the Ukrainian military. He noted that satellite communications play a vital role in supporting Ukraine’s defense, and any restrictions could directly impact the capabilities of the Armed Forces.
The host also mentioned reports from OSINT analysts who suggested that certain changes in the operation of satellite systems may have been made with Russian interests in mind. Gavryshchak believes that SpaceX’s activities and its ties to Russian entities could raise questions among U.S. lawmakers.
The company’s government contracts are of particular significance. SpaceX fulfills important orders for U.S. space and defense programs, which are funded through congressional budget decisions.
According to Gavryshchak, this gives U.S. lawmakers the opportunity to demand explanations regarding the company’s activities and its decisions that affected the availability of satellite communications for Ukraine.
He also drew attention to the political activities of the Musk family, particularly the businessman’s father’s statements expressing a positive attitude toward Putin. However, Elon Musk’s own decisions and the results of any potential congressional investigations will be of the greatest significance for SpaceX’s future relations with U.S. government agencies.
At the same time, the Kremlin is attempting to use diplomatic channels to increase pressure on Ukraine. Moreover, according to Gavryshchak’s assessment, Moscow is increasingly counting not only on Washington but also on the U.S. administration’s influence over Kyiv’s European partners.
The Kremlin Wants to Force Europe to Put Pressure on Ukraine
Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov stated the need to discuss future agreements not only with Ukraine and the U.S. but also with European states. At first glance, this could indicate Moscow’s willingness to include European representatives in the negotiation process.
However, according to Gavryshchak, the Russian side simultaneously made it clear that Europe’s participation in future trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi is not anticipated. This raised questions about exactly what role the Kremlin envisions for European countries.
The host drew attention to the explanations offered by diplomats who analyzed Ushakov’s remarks. The Russian official effectively acknowledged that, following previous talks in Anchorage, Moscow had counted on the Trump administration’s ability to secure territorial concessions from Ukraine.
However, these attempts were unsuccessful. Ukraine refused to withdraw its troops from the part of the Donetsk region under its control, and European partners continued to support the Ukrainian position.
According to Gavryshchak, this explains the Kremlin’s new rhetoric regarding the need for dialogue with Europe. This does not necessarily mean that Russia is ready to negotiate directly with European representatives.
Washington must put pressure on Europe so that Europe puts pressure on Kyiv. That’s how this scheme works
With this approach, Moscow is attempting to use U.S. political influence over European states to advance demands that Ukraine did not agree to during previous contacts.
European countries remain Ukraine’s main partners in defense funding, arms supplies, and support for sanctions against Russia. Therefore, any changes in their position could directly affect Kyiv’s negotiating leverage.
At the same time, Ushakov’s statements do not mean that Russia is ready to grant Europeans a full-fledged seat at the negotiating table. According to information provided by Gavryshchak, Moscow continues to insist on a trilateral format in Abu Dhabi without European participation, leaving the issue of European security to be addressed through separate political contacts.
The Kremlin Wants to Put Pressure on Ukraine Through Europe: Watch the Video
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