Negotiations Without a Ceasefire: ISW Explains What to Expect from the Kremlin

Such actions reveal the Kremlin’s true intentions. The ISW notes this in its report.

What is known about Moscow’s response?

On Sunday, October 25, Zelenskyy once again emphasized that Ukraine is ready to agree to an energy ceasefire or a cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea as part of trilateral talks between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, scheduled to take place on November 10 in Abu Dhabi.

However, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, stated in October that the decision to continue the trilateral talks does not oblige Russia to cease hostilities. According to him, Russian troops will continue operations against Ukraine.

Yuri Ushakov, the Russian president’s aide on foreign policy, said on October 25 that the upcoming trilateral talks would likely be nothing more than a “trial run.”

Thus, Moscow has consistently rejected all ceasefire proposals put forward by Washington and Kyiv. In contrast, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly affirmed their readiness to take such a step.

Recent statements by Peskov and Ushakov indicate that the Kremlin’s position on the eve of the upcoming trilateral talks remains unchanged: a rejection of ceasefire proposals– analysts note.

What does the Kremlin want?

ISW notes that the Kremlin’s current negotiating position on the war includes a long-standing demand from Moscow, made even before the start of the full-scale invasion. This refers to an ultimatum for NATO to return to its 1997 borders.

On Sunday, October 25, The Telegraph, citing diplomatic sources, reported that Russia’s efforts to involve Europe in peace talks are aimed at “securing concessions” on the issue of NATO expansion. Analysts believe that the Kremlin continues to insist on its long-standing ultimatum, issued in December 2021. These demands include halting the deployment of military forces and weapons systems in Alliance countries that joined NATO after 1997, as well as granting Russia veto power over a wide range of NATO’s internal matters.

Kremlin officials have repeatedly reiterated their ultimatums throughout the full-scale invasion and have shown no signs of being willing to compromise on this issue.

It is quite likely that the Kremlin will reiterate these demands during the upcoming trilateral talks scheduled for November 10, and may attempt to leverage recent concessions from the U.S. to secure further concessions regarding NATO and the post-Cold War European security architecture– the ISW reports.

As a reminder, on Tuesday, October 27, Vladimir Putin for the first time since July 2025 held talks with Ukraine’s European partners. The Russian dictator spoke by phone with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Støre. The politicians discussed the Russian-Ukrainian war.