Russia Lost the Key to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk: How the Ukrainian Armed Forces Thwarted the Plan to Encircle the Cities

The Russian army attempted to encircle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by advancing from two directions. However, one part of this plan fell apart, and the occupiers will now have to expend significantly more resources on their offensive.

Sergey Roze, a military analyst from Latvia, explained on the YouTube channel “Warrior of Freedom” how Operation "Vivaldi" thwarted the Russians’ plan, why the command’s false reports work in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and how the Kremlin is replenishing its army by sending untrained people to the front.

A Severed Tentacle: How the Plan to Encircle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk Failed

The Russian command traditionally uses a standard tactic to capture Ukrainian cities – deploying two strike groups (so-called “tentacles”) to encircle a settlement from the flanks, cut off logistics, and then launch an assault.

According to Roze, this is precisely the scenario the occupiers attempted to implement against Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The enemy formed one “tentacle” from the Dobropillia direction and the other from the north, via Lyman.

Note that on October 21, Russian troops carried out the largest assault of 2026 in the area of responsibility of one of the Ukrainian brigades in the Pokrovsk direction. The occupiers attacked at dawn under conditions of poor visibility, using motorcycles and other equipment. Ukrainian defenders repelled the assault: 43 Russian soldiers were killed, and another 12 were wounded. At the same time, according to the ISW, Russian troops continue offensive operations on several sections of the front, and recent advances have been recorded, in particular, southeast of Dobropillia.

The Russians even managed to cross the Chornyi Zherebets River and seize part of the territory, attempting to encircle the area from the north. However, a successful operation by the Ukrainian “Vivaldi” forces completely thwarted this plan.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled the enemy, regained control of 16 settlements, and secured their positions along the river. Now, the Russians’ left flank has lost all strategic significance.

To continue their advance on Sloviansk, the occupiers will have to launch a head-on attack, which will require enormous resources and delay their plans by at least half a year or a year. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops have gained the opportunity to rotate their forces and withdraw some units for rest.

Full interview with Serhiy Roze: watch the video

Infiltration tactics and record losses

NATO’s estimates of 50,000 Russians killed and wounded in September are a direct result of the enemy’s change in tactics and the improvement in the combat skills of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Roze notes that the Russian army has shifted to a tactic of constant infiltration by small infantry groups. The Russian command shows absolutely no regard for human resources: they send out groups one after another in the hope that someone will manage to gain a foothold in a basement or a wooded area.

The analyst cites a telling example from Russian sources, in which six occupiers were sent simply to plant a flag at a position. The entire group was wiped out, but the flag was raised, allowing the commanders to report a success. Such “roads of death,” literally littered with the bodies of Russian soldiers, have become a typical sight along the routes of their attacks.

The Virtual Reality of Russian Reports

The situation on the front lines is becoming increasingly difficult for the Russians due to a complete lie at all levels of command. Russian officers’ reports are so detached from reality that sometimes the front line on their maps runs 30 kilometers away from the actual one, ending up deep behind Ukrainian troops. This system of self-deception paradoxically helps the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

When a Russian commander on the ground requests air or artillery support for a specific settlement, higher command refuses, since on paper this territory is supposedly already under Russian control. New commanders taking up their posts are forced to send soldiers on suicidal frontal assaults so that reality will at least somewhat match their false reports.

However, this same lie has a downside: Vladimir Putin sincerely believes in his own invincibility and projects these illusions onto Western politicians, trying to convince them that supporting Ukraine is futile.

Covert Mobilization: Why It Benefits Ukraine

Unlike the mass mobilization in the fall of 2022, the Kremlin has now opted for a tactic of covertly drafting people. Instead of forming new divisions (Russia was able to deploy only one in a year), conscripts are being used as a steady stream to replenish current losses.

People are rounded up on the streets, taken to military recruitment offices, and physically forced to sign contracts. Roze emphasizes that, from a military standpoint, this approach poses the least danger to Ukraine. This stream of manpower arrives at the front with virtually no training and is instantly wiped out, preventing the enemy from building up a striking force capable of large-scale breakthroughs.

Russia is capable of sustaining this approach for a very long time, but it only guarantees a further increase in their losses without significant territorial gains.

Terror Against Civilians as a Sign of Military Powerlessness

Unable to win on the battlefield, Russia resorts to terrorizing the civilian population. The use of "Iskander" missiles with cluster munitions in Kyiv and constant attacks on the energy sector are an attempt to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people.

Roze compares this to a doctrine from World War II, when the bombing of cities was intended to force the population to demand surrender. However, as the history of the bombings of London and German cities shows, such terror does not lead to surrender. Moreover, by wasting expensive missiles on civilian targets, Russia is giving Ukrainian military logistics and production a breather.

The analyst identifies the only effective countermeasure as scaling up Ukrainian ballistic missile strikes against Russian military factories, data centers, and logistics hubs – a strategy capable of genuinely undermining the aggressor’s economic and military potential.