A year's worth of Su-34 production destroyed in a single operation: how Ukraine is crippling Russian aviation and oil refineries

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, air defense systems, and military airfields are gradually changing the situation behind enemy lines. In just three days, the attacks have disabled about 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, while the loss of combat aircraft and the shortage of air defense systems are creating new problems for the Kremlin.

Ukraine is seeking opportunities to boost its own missile production, while Turkey may play a role in negotiations for a maritime ceasefire. In an exclusive interview with 24 Channel, military analyst David Sharp explained just how painful the Ukrainian strikes are for Russia, why it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to replace lost equipment, and under what conditions attacks on energy infrastructure might cease.

New Tactics for Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries

The latest attacks on Russian oil refineries indicate a shift in the Ukrainian forces’ approach. Instead of scattering drones across various targets, strikes are concentrated on a single facility overnight.

Attacks on the Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery, the plant in Ufa, and the facility in Kstovo disabled approximately 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity in just three days.

The goal of this tactic is to strike several key components of a single facility at once, in order to take it out of commission not for a few weeks, but for many months. Russian oil refineries have many vulnerable points besides the fuel storage tanks themselves, and the systematic disruption of these components causes serious, long-term damage that goes beyond the mere visual image of a fire.

Full interview with David Sharp: watch the video

The Kremlin’s Breaking Point and the Prospect of an Energy Truce

There is a stereotype that the Russian government is willing to pay any price to achieve its goals. In practice, however, every state has a limit beyond which further losses become unwise.

The mounting damage to Russia’s home front is bringing closer the moment when the Kremlin may recognize that an energy truce is more advantageous than continuing the missile terror against Ukraine.

Once the U.S. elections are over, the impact of strikes on oil refineries on global oil prices will diminish. This opens a window of opportunity for behind-the-scenes negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. regarding a mutual cessation of attacks on the energy sector. However, the speed at which such an agreement is reached depends directly on how devastating Ukrainian attacks will be.

The Hunt for Air Defense Systems: Why Money Doesn’t Solve the Problem

Strikes on the Rostov region – specifically at the Kamensk Plant – where a “Pantsir-S2” complex and a command-and-control vehicle for the S-400 “Triumph” system, with a combined value of about $70 million, were destroyed, highlight yet another priority.

Air defense systems are prime targets not only because of their high cost. Their destruction sharply increases the vulnerability of other strategic facilities, such as weapons manufacturing plants.

Furthermore, the production of modern air defense systems is a lengthy, technology-intensive process with logistical bottlenecks. Even with unlimited financial resources, Russia is unable to quickly replace lost systems. The time required to replace them gives Ukrainian forces greater freedom of action in the air.

Catastrophic Su-34 Losses: A Blow to Annual Production

Among the most successful recent operations against Russian rear areas have been the strikes on the Marinivka and Borisoglibsk airfields. As a result of these attacks, Russia lost between 6 and 8 Su-34 bombers, either destroyed or severely damaged. The significance of these losses cannot be overstated.

The Su-34 is the main “workhorse” of the Russian Air Force, responsible for dropping guided bombs (KABs) on Ukrainian positions and frontline cities. The loss of 6–8 such aircraft is effectively equivalent to Russia’s annual production rate for this model. These are unplanned losses that cannot be quickly compensated for.

Taking such a large number of active combat aircraft out of service will inevitably lead to a reduction in the intensity of bombing raids on the front lines. The Russian command faces a dilemma: leave its aircraft at nearby airfields under the threat of new strikes, or withdraw them deep into the rear. Increasing the distance to the target reduces the time the aircraft spends in the air over the combat zone and lowers the overall effectiveness of the bombing runs.

Shortage of Missiles for the Patriot System and Ukraine’s Own Missile Capability

Amid successful strikes against Russia, Ukraine faces a shortage of interceptor missiles for its Patriot systems. The U.S. produces just over 50 such missiles per month, of which Ukraine receives about 12.

European countries have limited stockpiles (about 400–500 missiles for all of Europe) and are reluctant to share them due to their own security concerns.

The situation is complicated by the escalation in the Middle East, where the U.S. is forced to devote significant resources to repelling Iranian attacks.

Under these circumstances, the development of Ukraine’s defense industry has become critical. Scaling up production of domestic quasi-cruise missiles, such as the "Ruta" (with a stated production rate of up to 300 units per month, a range of 300 km, and a warhead weighing over 100 kg), is becoming a powerful argument. Unlike drones, ballistic and cruise missiles are capable of more effectively penetrating enemy air defenses and rapidly striking mobile targets, thereby strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating and military position.

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet: Loss of Control and the Turkey Factor

The Russian Black Sea Fleet has demonstrated a complete inability to fulfill its strategic missions. Attempts to protect the remaining ships using nets, tires, and “barbecue grills” are merely a pretense of security.

The fleet is incapable of protecting itself or ensuring safe navigation, as the situation in the Sea of Azov has clearly demonstrated.

In this context, Turkey’s role is growing, as it has significant economic interests in the region. Ankara may use its leverage to promote the idea of a “maritime truce,” possibly in conjunction with an energy agreement. However, the success of any agreements will depend on how painful Ukrainian strikes remain for Russia.

It should be recalled that during his visit to Istanbul on October 31, Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The parties discussed the possibility of holding peace talks and summit-level meetings in Turkey, as well as further diplomatic steps to end the war.