The controversy surrounding Starlink has brought into sharper focus the issue of Ukraine’s defense dependence on the decisions of Elon Musk and the Donald Trump administration. In the run-up to the U.S. congressional elections, the question of the American leadership’s responsibility for its policy toward Ukraine is also becoming increasingly pressing.
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American political analyst Yuriy Rashkin appeared on 24 Channel to explain why Musk may face pressure from lawmakers and what dangers Trump poses after the election. Journalist Roman Tsymbalyuk joined the analysis, assessing Ukraine’s strikes against Russia, the controversies surrounding the Donbas, and the Kremlin’s unchanging demands.
Musk Risks Losing Contracts
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that Donald Trump would deserve the Nobel Peace Prize only if the war against Ukraine were brought to a just conclusion. At the same time, he publicly responded to Elon Musk, reminding him that European countries are paying for the Starlink services used by Ukraine.
Rashkin believes Warsaw’s position is correct, as Trump might interpret his allies’ silence as consent to his own decisions. Musk finds himself in a particularly vulnerable position: his companies receive large government contracts, and he himself has spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting American political campaigns.
According to the columnist, the current U.S. president has significantly more leverage over Musk than the other way around. At the same time, lawmakers from both parties in Congress are increasingly raising questions about the billionaire’s political influence and the dependence of government systems on his companies.
My experience in the United States suggests that when you stand up against the state, the state will eventually crush you. No single person has ever defeated this machine. And a coalition is now forming against Musk from both the left and the right
One reason for the discontent was Musk’s behavior following the satellite communication issues. He accused Ukraine of corruption and questioned the use of U.S. funds, even though European partners are paying for a significant portion of the relevant services.
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Even after Starlink resumed operations, questions remain about the stability of access to the system. Rashkin does not rule out a recurrence of these problems after the U.S. elections, as Ukraine’s and its partners’ technological dependence on a single private company has not gone away.
The situation regarding alternatives is particularly challenging. Even SpaceX’s competitors use its rockets to launch their own satellites, as they lack the capacity to conduct independent launches.
If you don’t invest in research and development of your own technologies, you’ll end up depending on people like that. And then you’ll ask: how did we even end up in this situation? We should have taken action much earlier
European countries are already exploring options for creating independent satellite communication systems, particularly for Ukraine. However, these projects require time and investment, while the military needs reliable communication right now.
Trump Could Become More Dangerous
After the midterm congressional elections on November 3, Donald Trump may find himself in a more difficult political position. If the Republicans lose their majority in the House of Representatives, his administration will have to answer lawmakers’ questions about its decisions much more frequently.
Rashkin agrees that, under such a scenario, the U.S. president will have fewer opportunities to act unilaterally. However, a weakening of his political influence will not mean that he will abandon his confrontational style.
He will be more limited in his options, but he will become angrier and more dangerous. If things are going well for Trump, he gets cocky. If they’re going badly, he flies into a rage. I haven’t yet seen a situation where he simply calmed down
He cites attempts to cast doubt on the election results as one of the risks. The U.S. president and his supporters are already using legal channels in disputes over electoral procedures, and Rashkin does not rule out a much more intense confrontation after the results are announced.
The analyst even suggests that unrest similar to the events of January 6, 2021 – when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol – could recur. However, he believes that high voter turnout and a decisive election result are the best ways to prevent such a scenario.
Historically, the party of the incumbent U.S. president often loses seats in midterm elections. A significant defeat for the Republicans, Rashkin suggests, could limit Trump’s ability to challenge the results and mobilize his supporters for street protests.
He will do everything he can, but not everything he wants. Just like Putin. They would both like much more, but their capabilities are still limited
U.S. government institutions – particularly Congress, the courts, and law enforcement agencies – will play a crucial role. Rashkin believes that even in the worst-case political scenario, they remain the main obstacle to the president’s unlimited power.
Donbas Will Not Stop Putin
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the Donbas the central issue in negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, Rashkin is convinced that reducing the entire conflict to the Kremlin’s territorial claims merely oversimplifies Vladimir Putin’s true intentions.
Moscow is demanding that Ukraine cede the unoccupied areas of the Donetsk region, particularly key defensive lines. According to the analyst, Washington may view this as a separate concession that would allow for a peace agreement, even though Russia is not abandoning its much broader goals.
Rubio is not a strategist here, but a tactician. It’s as if a terrorist is demanding that we hand over all the keys, and we’re told: he just wants the keys, nothing more. This is madness
In his view, Rubio understands the nature of authoritarian regimes very well. He served in the Senate for many years, dealt with foreign policy, and knows full well how dictatorships operate, particularly the Cuban regime.
However, his position as Secretary of State and his political ambitions may force him to support Trump’s approach, even when it contradicts his previous convictions. Rashkin speculates that some U.S. officials are counting on Ukraine to reject Russia’s terms, after which the blame for the failure of the negotiations can be shifted onto Kyiv.
He understands all of this. But he hopes that Ukraine will never agree to this, and then the main thing will be to shift the blame onto someone else. It’s not Rubio’s fault, not Putin’s, not Trump’s. Who’s left? Ukraine
Washington’s stance puts additional diplomatic pressure on Ukraine. After all, the demand to vacate the fortified areas of Donetsk Oblast concerns not only the territories themselves but also Ukraine’s ability to deter a further Russian offensive.
Congress is preparing an investigation
If the Democrats win the election, one of the first issues could be a review of the Trump administration’s decisions, particularly regarding Starlink and SpaceX government contracts. Rashkin expects lawmakers to demand documents, testimony from officials, and explanations regarding restrictions that may have impacted Ukraine’s defense.
At the same time, the new Congress will not officially begin its work until January 3. Until then, Republicans will retain their current powers, and the Trump administration will have time to push through its own decisions.
According to Rashkin, Democrats are already signaling their intent to scrutinize financial transactions and government contracts. However, even after securing a majority, investigations may face difficulties, as Trump has vowed to defend his allies, including through presidential pardons.
The analyst suggests that Russia is trying to use the final weeks before the election to increase pressure on Trump. He links this to Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and the Kremlin’s reluctance to abandon its attempts to secure concessions through diplomatic channels.
Every new plan that Trump comes up with always originates in the Kremlin. It’s no longer just that all roads lead to Putin – all information comes from there. He’s simply Putin’s governor
At the same time, he highly commends the resilience of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is forced to maintain contact with Washington while refusing to yield to Russian demands. According to the analyst, the decisive factor remains the resistance of the Ukrainians, who are holding the line and preventing the Kremlin from carrying out its plans.
After the election, tensions may spill over into budget disputes. In particular, Trump and Pentagon leadership will need lawmakers’ support to approve new defense spending, and some Republicans, following a possible defeat for their party, will no longer have the same reasons to unquestioningly support the president.
Iran and Kushner’s Problems
The situation in the Middle East could also influence the outcome of the U.S. election. Rashkin pointed to rising energy prices and the risk of renewed large-scale hostilities against Iran following the elections in the U.S. and Israel.
He speculates that the Trump administration is seeking to avoid a new escalation before November 3, as further increases in fuel prices could fuel discontent among American voters. The analyst also mentioned Lev Parnas’s suggestion that Russia and Iran might be coordinating their actions in light of Trump’s domestic political interests.
It appears that Israel and the United States are preparing to resume military operations against Iran after the election. First, voters will be allowed to cast their ballots, and then talk of a new military operation will begin. Expect prices to rise further
The oil situation is already creating difficulties for the White House, as Americans are feeling the effects of rising fuel prices along with the impact of Trump’s tariff policy. The analyst considers attempts to shift the blame for this onto Ukraine to be politically misguided.
Criticism also extends to the role of Jared Kushner, who participates in important international negotiations. Rashkin cited reports of his financial ties abroad and insists that the issue of potential lack of transparency in such relationships must be investigated by the relevant U.S. authorities.
Instead, a significant portion of the administration’s foreign policy contacts is handled by people from the president’s immediate family circle. According to the columnist, this creates additional risks for U.S. foreign policy, especially when it comes to negotiations with Russia and countries in the Middle East.
A Summit to Divide the World
Following the U.S. elections, trilateral negotiations involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia may resume. At the same time, there are discussions about a potential meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, which the Kremlin hopes to use to demonstrate its own international clout.
Rashkin is skeptical about the possible outcome of such contacts. He believes that the major powers may try to discuss spheres of influence, but the reality is far more complex than the plans of politicians who want to decide the future of other countries without their participation.
“I expect what I always expect from Trump: photos and embarrassment. And not necessarily in that order. Maybe the embarrassment will just be in the photo,”
In his assessment, a hypothetical scenario of such a division would entail Russian control over Ukraine and part of Europe, American influence over the Western Hemisphere, and Chinese dominance over Taiwan. However, this is hindered by domestic political processes in the U.S., Ukraine’s resistance, and Beijing’s own interests.
Rashkin considers the period between the November 3 election and the start of the new Congress on January 3 to be particularly dangerous. If the Republicans suffer a defeat, Trump will retain his current powers for some time, even though he will already be aware of the future tightening of control by lawmakers.
After the election, he will have two months during which he cannot yet be fully hindered. And Putin clearly wants to use this window of opportunity for his deadly purposes
He suggests several scenarios for Trump: significant political weakening, protracted legal battles, or mass unrest in the U.S. In any of these cases, it will be more difficult for the American president to present himself as a strong international leader.
Rashkin also drew attention to the situation of other potential summit participants. Russia has not achieved its main objectives in the war against Ukraine, the U.S. faces serious challenges regarding Iran, and China has yet to carry out its plans regarding Taiwan.
Strikes Are Shaping the Negotiations
New Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and industrial targets demonstrate the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces even with limited supplies of Western weapons. In particular, there have been reports of attacks using Storm Shadow missiles on targets in Togliatti and Orel.
Journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk believes that the timely delivery of a sufficient number of long-range weapons to Ukraine could have changed the course of the war much earlier. He pointed out that even a relatively small number of precision-guided missiles is capable of inflicting serious damage on key Russian industrial facilities.
“What’s most infuriating is that if we’d been given enough weapons, the war would already be somewhere in the Ural region. This could have been done long ago if the necessary missiles had been delivered on time,”
At the same time, Ukraine’s military cooperation with the U.S. has not ceased. Ukrainian units continue to use HIMARS, and Starlink satellite communications have been restored.
Ukraine is also actively developing its own medium- and long-range weapons. Tsymbaliuk attributes this to the need to compensate for delays in Western deliveries and to independently find opportunities to strike at Russian military infrastructure.
Negotiations regarding the Donetsk region also remain important. According to the journalist, Washington is gradually beginning to realize that a unilateral withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from fortified areas in the Donetsk region would pose a threat to the defense of other regions.
Tsymbaliuk speculates that following the talks in Oslo, the American side presented a position in St. Petersburg that calls for a cessation of hostilities along the current front line, rather than the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from unoccupied territories.
At the same time, the Kremlin was in no hurry to endorse it. According to the journalist’s assessment, Russian statements about the need for further consideration may indicate Putin’s reluctance to agree to an option that does not provide for new territorial gains.
Starshield and Patriot Missiles
Issues with the military segment of satellite communications remain one of the most contentious topics in relations between Kyiv and Washington. Tsymbaliuk suggests that the relevant restrictions may have been part of political pressure on Ukraine linked to Donald Trump’s demands to end the war.
In his view, a decision of this magnitude could not have been made solely by Elon Musk or individual Pentagon officials. SpaceX’s military technologies are used under U.S. government contracts, so the key political responsibility, according to the journalist, lies with the White House.
Only Trump could have done this. Talk that someone at the Department of Defense or Elon Musk himself simply decided to shut everything down is, in my view, frivolous. All these companies operate within the framework of U.S. law
Following criticism within the U.S., the situation regarding communications began to change. The journalist does not rule out that Washington may eventually agree to expand the operation of these services near the Russian border, which would increase Ukraine’s ability to counter missile threats.
Tsymbaliuk recalled that many decisions regarding Western weapons initially seemed impossible. This was the case with the transfer of cluster munitions, long-range missiles, F-16 fighter jets, and Patriot systems.
He paid particular attention to strikes against Russian launchers used to shell Ukrainian cities. Destroying such systems reduces the threat before the missiles are even launched, rather than wasting scarce interceptors after an attack has begun.
How can we conserve Patriot missiles? By destroying Russian launchers along with their crews. Our allies could have saved both money and human lives if they had provided the necessary weapons earlier
As an example, he cited the Russian shelling of Kharkiv with S-300 missiles. After authorization was granted to use Western long-range weapons against the relevant military targets, Russian units were forced to move some of their launchers farther away from the Ukrainian border.
Putin Is Not Backing Down from His Demands
Vladimir Putin has once again stated the need to achieve all the objectives of the so-called “special military operation” and has returned to Russia’s demands regarding the future architecture of European security. In particular, the Kremlin continues to push for limiting Ukraine’s military capabilities and rolling back NATO to its 1997 parameters.
Tsymbaliuk noted that the Russian dictator is essentially repeating old demands, even though Russia’s own situation has changed significantly. Moscow has failed to achieve the demilitarization of Ukraine, which has instead acquired the latest Western weapons systems and developed its own domestic production.
At the same time, Putin does not rule out the possibility of further negotiations. According to the journalist’s assessment, his recent statements have become less categorical, as the Kremlin is trying to find a way to continue contacts with the U.S. that is acceptable to it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for his part, emphasizes the possibility of ceasing hostilities without legally recognizing the occupied territories as Russian. Tsymbaliuk considers this a fundamental difference between a ceasefire and Ukraine’s relinquishment of its territories.
Putin’s statements about Donbas as allegedly historically Russian territory are of particular significance. Following this logic, the Kremlin could make similar claims on other Ukrainian regions, as there is no clear limit to its historical arguments.
In this crazy line of thinking, how does Donetsk Oblast differ from Lviv, Kharkiv, Odesa, or Kyiv? When you start talking about “historical lands,” don’t be surprised if someone later applies that same approach to you. It’s a Pandora’s box
Meanwhile, large-scale problems with electricity supply have arisen in the temporarily occupied territories. There have been reports of rolling blackouts in Crimea and power outages in parts of the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Tsymbalyuk pointed out that Russian federal media are devoting significantly less attention to these problems than to disruptions at Moscow’s airports. In his view, Moscow is almost entirely indifferent to the lives of people in the captured Ukrainian cities.
At the same time, drone attacks are increasingly disrupting air traffic in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Russian authorities are having to strengthen the protection of key facilities, and reports of air defense systems being deployed even near the mausoleum in Moscow demonstrate the extent of their concern.
They shouldn’t be thinking about Yalta, but about Nuremberg. That’s much closer to justice
The journalist also doubts that Russia can claim equal participation in a new world order alongside the U.S. and China. He suggests that Washington’s economic interests may also be behind the talk of a major summit, particularly the possibility of gaining access to Russian rare-earth metal deposits, which Moscow had previously offered to Beijing.
Full video interview: watch the video
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