Why Putin Is Not Interested in Peace Right Now, and What Ukraine Should Do in This Situation

Despite this, I am convinced that we should not expect anything in the coming weeks, and in fact, it is no coincidence that the Russians themselves mention the term “in November.” There are several reasons for this. Read more in Andriy Shtangret’s exclusive column for 24 Channel.

First, Putin feels like the king of the world because the situation has clearly improved for him for the first time in recent years of war: agreements with Trump, the sale of diesel fuel, and the prospect of restoring his image on the international stage – all of this matters. Even though “diesel agreement ” is purely a political gesture, it will still provide Russia with billions of dollars to continue this war, and the “extra” funds will help him in a clearly difficult economic situation.

There’s a sense that Putin has gotten everything he wanted from Trump so far, including pressure on Ukraine regarding the attacks on oil refineries, and the sudden emergence of unknown issues with Starlink – which we, among others, use for our defense. And now, at least until the U.S. midterm elections – which scheduled for November 3 – Trump can expect nothing from Russia, because they have no interest in helping him win them.

Rather, they will wait and watch from a distance, ready to exploit the situation for their own purposes at the right moment.

Second, Putin is convinced that he can break the spirit of the Ukrainians with strikes deep into Ukrainian territory, since he has had no success on the front lines; moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have recently carried out several successful operations and pushed back the occupiers on several fronts. But they’ve caused us plenty of problems in the air over the past few months, and things could get even worse. I think the reason for this may be the Russians’ recent shift from jet-powered drones to cheap cruise missiles, and this is truly a “wake-up call.”

In particular, Presidential Advisor Serhiy Flash Beskrestnov recently reported on the the new Russian "Filin" missile. It’s faster, more maneuverable, flies at low altitudes, and carries a larger warhead than the “Shahed.” We haven’t even fully figured out what to do about jet-powered drones yet, and now this missile is already appearing.

Its emergence could cause us a lot of problems, so the key questions now are: How quickly can Russia ramp up production? And is Ukraine prepared for a new wave of terror?

Until we find out the answers to these questions, Putin will try to inflict the greatest damage on Ukraine by striking logistics, energy facilities, transportation hubs, and civilian infrastructure. For our cities, this could turn into a living hell with constant strikes if we are unable to intercept and shoot them down quickly. If the Kremlin feels it has air superiority, then why would they want peace?

Third, and perhaps most importantly, is A trilateral meeting between the U.S., Russia, and China may take place at the summit on November 18–19. I won’t delve too deeply into this topic, but I just want to note that it is Russia itself that is initiating this meeting, because they really need it. It’s an opportunity for Putin to get the most out of Trump in Xi’s presence. It’s a chance for Putin to break out of his relative diplomatic isolation and make his presence felt at the highest level. And it’s an opportunity for Russia to stabilize domestic sentiment, even if only illusory. Because if Putin is shining at such meetings, maybe things aren’t so bad after all? – some Russian worker might think while watching TV at home in Chelyabinsk after a long day at the factory. And that’s just what’s apparent on the surface. What exactly the leaders will discuss – or whether this meeting will even take place – remains unknown.

In conclusion, I’d like to say that Russia currently has no reason to end the war anytime soon or to agree to even the slightest concessions. Accordingly, they’ll drag their feet; Russian media have reported that Medynsky might once again be part of the Russian delegation and give lectures on historical topics.

All of this is possible. But these meetings are necessary as well. Even if they do not lead to global peace, but mark the beginning of a new exchange of prisoners of war, I will consider that a major achievement. And the return of our soldiers home will be very good news.

It seems that right now, the most important thing for Ukraine is simply to be patient, gather strength, make its position known, and observe what is happening around it. For now, it does not seem to be the right time for diplomacy to succeed.