This week, Israel held parliamentary elections for the Knesset, which were supposed to determine the direction of a country facing growing social divisions and a political crisis, with no single party enjoying sufficient public support.
Several days have passed since the polls closed, and 100% of the votes have been counted, but there is still no clarity regarding Israel’s future political course. Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his potential coalition partners failed to secure a majority of seats. Nor have the opposition parties, led by Gadi Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Golan, managed to do so.
The only winners of the election can be considered the candidates from Arab parties, who collectively won a record 19 seats. Netanyahu has already accused the Arabs of stealing the elections, and his party is challenging the results.
24 Channel summarizes the parliamentary elections in Israel, highlights the main trends, and predicts a deepening political crisis in the country.
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What Are the Results of the Knesset Elections and Why Did They Disappoint Everyone?
Historically, Israel has had a large number of parties competing for representation in the “small” Knesset.
The electoral threshold for a political party is only 3.25%. By receiving between 150,000 and 180,000 votes, a party earns four seats in parliament.
In total, there are 120 members of the Knesset. This year, representatives of eleven parties managed to clear the threshold.
Netanyahu’s Likud party retained its lead with 27 seats, while Gadi Eizenkot’s opposition party, “Yashar!”, finished second and will have 21 members of parliament. A majority or minority coalition could form around these two forces.
However, for now, the task of forming a coalition of 61 lawmakers appears challenging for both Netanyahu and his main opponent, Eizenkot.
The experienced Israeli prime minister has so far relied on the support of right-wing and religious parties, such as Shas, “Otzma Yehudit” with its controversial leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, and “Religious Zionism” led by the equally controversial radical Bezalel Smotrich.
A golden opportunity for those previously overlooked
According to the results of these elections, Netanyahu’s likely allies won a total of 53 seats, while the camp of former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eizenkot secured 48 “seats.” It turns out that the “golden share” went to 19 Arab lawmakers from the “Joint List” and the Ra’am party.
The 2026 elections shattered many illusions. One of them is the notion that Israel is a mono-national state.
This is because local Arabs make up about 20% of Israel’s population, yet they have never been adequately represented in the Knesset until now. And only this year Thanks to their activism and solidarity, Israeli Arabs have at least come closer to achieving proportional representation in parliament.
Her success has already sparked dissent from other political forces in the country. Netanyahu and his allies have already claimed that the election was rigged due to interference by external forces.
Perhaps men felt something similar a hundred years ago, after women finally gained equal voting rights and went to the polls for the first time.
Following a statement by Central Election Commission Chair Noam Solberg, the Israeli security service Shin Bet is investigating possible financial inducements offered to voters of Arab descent by Iran, Turkey, and Qatar in order to boost voter turnout.
Netanyahu’s opponents – Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett – are mocking the incumbent prime minister for his panicked reaction to the defeat, pointing to the ties between Netanyahu’s inner circle and Qatar.
It is believed that Netanyahu’s associates were corrupt and had been receiving substantial sums from Qatar even before the tragic events of October 7, 2023 (this scandal is known as “Qatargate,” which is not over – a trial is currently being prepared, and Netanyahu’s exposed aides, Yonatan Urich and Eli Feldstein, have been suspended).
At the same time, “Qatargate” is just one of the grievances Israeli society has against its “perpetual” prime minister. 24 Channel covered them in detail at an in-depth profile of Benjamin Netanyahu.
The issue of corruption within Netanyahu’s team became one of the key issues the opposition focused on during this year’s campaign. The prime minister is also actively accused of deliberately allowing the October 7 massacre to happen. However, the popularity of the hashtag #BibiKnew did not prevent the Likud party from winning a significant number of votes.
What’s Next
While the investigation into possible election interference is ongoing, active behind-the-scenes negotiations on forming a coalition have already begun. Local media have reported a possible split within the opposition camp. Allegedly, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the secular nationalist party “Our Home Israel,” has cut off communication with Eisenkot and Bennett.
Lieberman does not wish to join a minority coalition involving the left-wing “Democrats” and Arab parties, so he hopes that Eizenkot will reach an agreement with Netanyahu on a broad coalition between the ruling party and the opposition.
At present, there are several possible scenarios for how events might unfold.
First, there remains the possibility of forming a “national unity” coalition that would represent the majority of the population (but only the Jewish majority, i.e., excluding Arabs).
For this to happen, the “cunning fox” Netanyahu would need to agree with Eisenkot on the terms of cooperation. For example, there are reports that in two years, Bibi could step down as prime minister and become president of Israel, with Eizenkot taking his place. Such an arrangement seems very fragile and short-lived.
A second possible scenario involves forming a coalition and a minority government, which would require active cooperation with Arab parties. However, not everyone in the Israeli opposition is willing to actively cooperate with Arab lawmakers.
And we still do not know how the investigation into possible interference by Qatar, Iran, and Turkey in the elections will conclude. It is possible that the number of Arab lawmakers in the Knesset could decrease.
The third scenario involves a prolonged political crisis without the formation of a coalition, preparations for new elections, and Netanyahu retaining the prime minister’s seat during this transitional period. This will be a time of turbulence and an escalation of all the social conflicts that have built up within Israeli society.
Moreover, a new “hot” phase of the war with Iran is approaching – few in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem have any doubts about this. And Donald Trump (who also has elections coming up) is openly hinting at a new “ campaign against Iran ” in his speeches.
Most likely, Israel will end this year without a new government, but with a new old war against Iranian Islamists. And this is the ideal scenario for Netanyahu.
As for Israel’s longer-term political prospects, they give rise to considerable concern. Of course, the high turnout among voters of Arab origin can be attributed to external influences, but it is worth noting that internal factors have also played a part, namely the rise of far-right and orthodox religious sentiments in Israeli politics.
Religious Jewish parties are gaining ever-greater support, although for their representatives, concepts such as democracy, freedom of speech, human rights and a secular state carry no weight whatsoever. Combined with far-right nationalist approaches, these parties are shaping an openly hostile policy towards Israel’s Arab population and providing ammunition for Israel’s critics to speak of a revival of the shameful practices of the apartheid regime.
It is hardly surprising that the residents of Ramallah, Hebron and other cities in the West Bank perceive these parties and their leaders as a direct threat to their very existence. When bulldozers, under army supervision, demolish Palestinian neighbourhoods, and the so-called ‘youth of the hills’ carry out pogroms under the cover of the security forces, going to the polls and voting for ‘their own’ is a perfectly normal and understandable reaction. And it is a perfectly legitimate form of protest.
Therefore, when Netanyahu seeks to understand why nearly twenty Arab MPs might end up in the Knesset, he needs to look in the mirror — at himself and his political partners, such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. If current trends continue, they will lead to social division in Israel and call into question the very possibility of its existence as a secular, democratic state and a society that shares Western values.
If you want to dive deep into Israeli politics and get a handle on the 2026 elections, we recommend an interview with Israeli expert Yehiel Fishzon, who laid everything out in detail in perfect Ukrainian.
Interview with an expert on the Israeli elections – watch the video:
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