Vucic Is Out, Putin Stays: What Ukraine and Europe Can Expect from the Opposition’s Victory in Serbia

Last Sunday marked the end of an entire era for Serbia. For the first time in 14 years, the country’s long-time leader, Aleksandar Vučić, publicly acknowledged his party’s defeat in the special parliamentary elections.

As a result, Belgrade and other cities are now engulfed in massive celebrations – thousands of people have taken to the streets to celebrate the dismantling of the system that has dominated the country since 2012.

The main winner was the non-establishment opposition movement “Student List.” According to preliminary results, the opposition has secured a convincing majority in parliament and must now form Serbia’s new government.

To understand what agenda these new faces are bringing to power and whether we should expect a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy, 24 Channel spoke with Dimitar Keranov, an analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center and an expert on Balkan politics. An analysis of events in Serbia is available in the 24 Channel report.

The long-standing hegemon has suffered a defeat

The political rout of the ruling party in Serbia had been brewing for nearly two years. The catalyst for the public outcry was the tragedy on November 1, 2024, in Novi Sad, when the collapse of a concrete canopy at the newly renovated train station claimed the lives of 16 people.

The public closely linked the renovation of the facility to the president’s inner circle, and the incident itself became, for Serbs, the primary symbol of rampant corruption, negligence, and growing authoritarianism. Student protests that erupted immediately after the tragedy quickly grew into a powerful nationwide movement.

Serbia is celebrating:

In an attempt to seize the initiative – and with the example of Rumen Radev, who had moved from the presidency to the prime minister’s office, Serbian authorities called for early elections – the calculation proved to be wrong. The decisive factor was a record-breaking mobilization of the public: voter turnout reached nearly 68%, the highest rate since the breakup of Yugoslavia.

Without waiting for the official results, Vučić publicly conceded defeat, declaring that a “revolution” was taking place in the country, which, according to him, was allegedly supported by certain European and American political forces.

“We don’t have a result, and many will be surprised. You will realize just how much some people lied. Based on the stratified sample, it is clear that we lost this election,” Vučić said, conceding defeat.

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also among the first to congratulate the “students” on their victory.

A historic event, but not the end for Vučić

The victory of the “Student List” has become the most significant political event in Serbia over the past two decades. But experts urge people not to harbor any illusions about quick and easy transformations.

As Dimitar Keranov, an analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center, noted in a comment for 24 Channel, the recent parliamentary elections mark a key turning point since the 2000s.

At the same time, Aleksandar Vučić is a political heavyweight who has been in power since the 1990s, when he served as Minister of Information in Slobodan Milošević’s government. Given this, Vučić will remain an influential figure and will not disappear from the political arena overnight.

Dimitar Keranov

Analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center

The real lesson for all of Europe is that a change in government does not automatically mean a change in the system itself. Clan-based networks of influence, the bureaucratic apparatus, and the prosecutor’s office – none of this disappears overnight. Over 14 years of one-party rule, these networks have taken root extremely deeply. The country’s greatest challenge lies ahead – in the coming months and throughout the next year.

The Student List: New Leaders in Power Fighting Corruption

Despite its convincing victory, the “Student List” still holds the main mystery – the opposition has not announced either its candidate for prime minister or the composition of the future Cabinet of Ministers.

Interestingly, there are no students on the lists themselves; they deliberately chose not to run for parliament. This was a pragmatic and calculated move: the electorate would hardly have entrusted the country’s governance to young people without sufficient life and professional experience.

Ilya Srdanović – a respected professor of cardiology from Novi Sad – topped the electoral list. However, analysts doubt that he will be the one to take the helm of the government. The media has mentioned economist Dejan Šoškić among the likely candidates, but for now, this remains mere speculation.

Dimitar Keranov

Analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center

If we look at this from a traditional perspective, the lack of clear candidates does indeed seem strange. But the “Student List” is not a classic political party in the sense we’re used to. It’s an extremely interesting case and a lesson in how a modern student movement can organize and operate.

Despite skeptics’ claims that the winners lack political experience, experts urge us to evaluate the new team based on its actual actions and the candidates who will be announced in the near future.

According to Dimitar Keranov, the lack of a traditional political background should not be considered a drawback.

Dimitar Keranov

Analyst at Delphi Global Research Center

Even if you’re a professional politician with decades of experience, that doesn’t make you a good leader or guarantee effective governance. They deserve a chance to prove themselves. Most likely, we’ll see a technocratic form of government. The next step is to wait and see the backgrounds of specific ministers, their domestic policies, and their foreign policy direction.

Representatives of the student movement themselves emphasize that their goal is to bring in specialists who will work responsibly and remain mindful of their obligations to society.

The elected representatives of the “Student List” are entering parliament with a clear manifesto. Among the main priorities of their 11-point program are:

• A tough fight against corruption: Creating a special police unit to investigate and arrest corrupt officials.
• Purging the security apparatus: Dismissing from the Ministry of Internal Affairs all officials involved in the violent suppression of protests or linked to organized crime.
• Media reform: Dismantling political control over the public broadcaster and revitalizing Serbia’s media market.
• Depoliticization of the State Apparatus: A ban on appointing individuals to leadership positions in state-owned enterprises based on party affiliation or cronyism.

Dimitar Keranov emphasizes that rapid changes should not be expected. Furthermore, he urges people not to compare the change of power in Serbia with the elections in Hungary. According to the analyst, the countries operate in different contexts, and the opposition’s victory does not yet signify irreversible changes.

Dimitar Keranov

Analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center

I know it’s very tempting to compare Serbia with Hungary, but I believe we shouldn’t do that, because Serbia is obviously not Hungary – it’s not a member of the European Union, and it’s not in NATO. The Serbian student movement is not at all the same thing… and Serbia also has a completely different history in terms of the breakup of Yugoslavia, the Yugoslav Wars, and, as I mentioned earlier, there has been a rise in nationalism during Vučić’s tenure.

Does an opposition victory mean Serbia will break ties with Russia and China?

Vucic’s long-standing policy has been based on maneuvering – from feigning European integration to cultivating friendships with Russian dictator Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

This friendship involved refusing to impose sanctions, receiving discounted gas, and receiving Moscow’s support on the Kosovo issue. At the same time, Belgrade supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, while Serbian weapons – though routed through third countries – steadily found their way to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In 2026, Vučić was particularly active on this front – he hosted Zelenskyy in Belgrade, later visited Ukraine himself, held lively negotiations with Kyiv, and hinted that not everything was so black and white.

Vucic explains the nuances of Serbian foreign policy to Zelenskyy / Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine

At the same time, Russia’s position in Belgrade remained strong. Thanks to Moscow’s support, Vučić tried to quell the student protests, and the Russians actively backed him up and assisted him.

But Vučić’s downfall does not mean that the “students” will turn away from Moscow, so one should not expect a radical shift from the new government. This is because the EU isn’t particularly eager to welcome them (even if a significant portion of the protesters would like that), whereas relations with Russia are long-standing and well-established.

The “Student List” has already stated: “The Republic of Serbia will maintain its principled stance against the introduction of restrictive measures against the Russian Federation.”

Given this, the consequences of the change in power in Belgrade for Kyiv may turn out to be much more significant than merely restrained geopolitical rhetoric. Even the indirect level of support that existed under Vučić is now at risk of being cut off.

This is because key candidates from the “Student List” have stated that Serbia’s future government plans to completely halt all exports of defense products to combat zones. This applies, in particular, to sales to Western intermediaries through whom Serbian ammunition and weapons have been reaching the Armed Forces of Ukraine until now.

At least, that is what the editors at Reuters wrote in their in-depth article on events in Serbia.

Screenshots of the controversial Reuters article and its subsequent retraction, in which the errors were acknowledged.

However, the publication later corrected itself and provided a clarification.

This article has been corrected: it states that the student leaders did not comment on whether the future government would halt arms exports, the Reuters editors wrote.

The text of the article now reads "did not state" instead of "stated", which literally echoes the plot of the famous novel by Nobel laureate José Saramago, "The History of the Siege of Lisbon", in which the protagonist changed the course of history with the help of the word ‘no’.

Nevertheless, this is still a wake-up call, as such views do indeed exist in Serbia. On the other hand, politicians from Slovakia, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic used similar rhetoric during their election campaigns, but then quickly realized that this meant “real money” and jobs for their own constituents, so they quietly continued their work. Perhaps something similar will happen in Serbia. However, for now, there are no concrete details – only words that can always be forgotten later.

A Window of Opportunity for European Integration

The winners also have no clear-cut plans regarding integration with the European Union. The movement’s main focus remains on domestic issues – the fight against corruption and strengthening the rule of law. As analyst Keranov explains, this position is deeply pragmatic. This is because there is a divide within Serbia itself regarding European integration.

Dimitar Keranov

Analyst at the Delphi Global Research Center

If they succeed in implementing these reforms, it will strengthen trust from Brussels, since the rule of law is a fundamental value of the EU. However, the country’s foreign policy must meet the EU’s requirements. And this balance – trying to align with the EU while remaining friendly toward China and Russia – will be extremely difficult to maintain on the path to accession.

As Ulyana Bakh, head of DIGNITY in Ukraine and founder of GNIZDO, points out, about 75% of voters in the student movement see Serbia’s future in close ties with the EU, rather than with Russia. However, there is still no unified front within the winning bloc.

“Representatives of the movement have already called for a referendum on EU accession. And that’s not even the most interesting part. Opposition figure Dragan Djilas claimed that students had previously proposed putting the question of whether to continue European integration to a referendum. In other words, the situation remains extremely ambiguous for now,” notes Ulyana Bakh in her Facebook post.

Incidentally, Brussels reacted immediately to the election results, making it clear that the replacement of Vučić’s authoritarian regime opens a new window of opportunity for Serbia.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was among the first to congratulate the winners, outlining the framework for future partnership.

We congratulate the “Student List” on its victory in the parliamentary elections. “We are ready to support reforms in the areas of the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption, and the strengthening of democratic institutions, as well as to work together to advance Serbia’s future within the European Union,” she said.