Russia continues its massive attacks on Ukrainian cities, leaving people without electricity, water, and heat. Following the attack on Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, rescue workers are still clearing the rubble, while shelling of Kyiv, Dnipro, and Chernihiv has caused serious disruptions to urban infrastructure.
In his analysis published by 24 Channel, journalist Serhiy Aussländer examined the consequences of the Russian attacks and explained why the restoration of utility systems may take time even after power is restored. He also discussed Ukrainian strikes against the Russian military-industrial complex, assessed the vulnerability of bridges across the Volga River, and evaluated the prospects of a Russian offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
popular videos
More bodies continue to be found following the strike on Komyshuvakha
On November 2, Russian troops struck Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region with heavy aerial bombs. The attack targeted a former school building, where humanitarian aid was being distributed and a shelter for local residents had been set up.
According to information provided by Ausländer, the building was initially struck once, resulting in casualties and injuries. Some people gathered in the shelter, after which the Russians attacked again. It was the second strike that caused the greatest number of casualties.
Even six days after the tragedy, search operations were still underway. At the time of the inspection, 55 people were confirmed dead, and in the last 24 hours alone, rescuers had recovered nine more bodies from under the rubble. The death toll could rise, and the rescue operation was complicated by the threat of new Russian attacks.
One piece of evidence of the tragedy was footage from the body camera of a police officer who arrived at the scene after the first strike. The video shows people taking shelter and talking to one another, followed by a flash and then the recording cuts off.
This is the deadliest Russian strike against the civilian population in the past two years. The last time so many people were killed was during the strike on Poltava in September 2024
The journalist recalled that at that time, Russian troops attacked the area around the Institute of Communications and a nearby hospital. According to his data, more than 50 people were killed as a result of the strike.
In the case of Komyshuvakha, he sees no military necessity for the attack. According to him, civilians, as well as police and emergency responders, were inside the former school building.
The village is located near a road used to supply Ukrainian troops in the Orikhiv and Stepnogorsk sectors. However, Ausländer emphasized that mere proximity to a transportation route does not turn a settlement or civilian shelter into a military facility.
There was no military necessity there. There are no major industrial or infrastructure facilities in Komyshuvas. A road runs nearby that supplies the frontline units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but that does not mean the village itself is a military facility
Komyshuvakha is located in the rear area of the Ukrainian defense line, near regions where combat operations are ongoing. However, Aussländer emphasized the need to distinguish between military routes and civilian facilities located near them.
Claims of “dual use” could be exploited by the Russians
Following the tragedy in Komyshuvakha, discussions began in the media about an interview with a Ukrainian political scientist named Pyatihorets, which was published back in September. In it, he claimed that Ukrainian schools could be used as dual-use facilities, and that drone operators were allegedly stationed in their basements.
What particularly concerned Aussländer was that the Komyshuvakha school was specifically mentioned during that conversation. The journalist criticized such public statements, as they could become a tool for a Russian information campaign following an attack.
In his view, the Russian side could use such statements as a pretext to attempt to justify shelling civilian buildings. It is especially dangerous when someone speaks about the military use of a specific facility without confirmed data.
“I find it completely baffling why anyone would refer to schools as dual-use facilities. This is a striking example of how people’s loose lips can cause so much harm,”
The journalist suggested that such statements could later resurface even during an international investigation into the circumstances of the Russian strike. Russian officials might cite such interviews in an attempt to portray the attack as allegedly justified.
At the same time, no direct link has been established between the September interview and the Russian military’s decision to attack the building. Aussländer does not rule out this possibility, since Russian agencies are actively monitoring Ukrainian media and social networks.
Imagine there’s some kind of international tribunal regarding Komyshuvakha. The Russians will show this video and say: ‘Look, the man himself admitted to having a dual role. What’s our role here? We were within our rights,’
He cited examples of how reports by Russian military correspondents had previously helped the Ukrainian military pinpoint the locations of military equipment or repair bases. The reports sometimes showed specific facilities, which were then targeted.
According to Ausländer, such risks exist for both sides, as information from open sources has long been used during wartime. That is precisely why careless statements about the possible deployment of military personnel in civilian buildings can have serious consequences.
Shelling left Ukrainian cities without power, water, and heat
Russian strikes on energy infrastructure caused widespread problems in several Ukrainian cities at once. Following the shelling in Dnipro, electric transit came to a halt, traction substations lost power, and there were disruptions in heat supply.
Chernihiv also suffered serious consequences; following a nighttime attack, the city was reportedly left completely without electricity. In Kyiv, the strikes caused power outages, problems with the water supply, and disruptions to heating systems.
Ausländer noted a change in the nature of Russian attacks. According to him, the enemy is deliberately targeting not only large energy facilities but also substations on which the operation of water supply and sewage systems depends.
Such damage creates significantly broader problems than a typical power outage. If a city remains without water and sewage services for an extended period, additional health risks arise.
At the same time, the journalist emphasized that medical and emergency services are operational in Kyiv, so there is no reason to speak of an inevitable epidemic. However, the extent of the damage and the necessary restoration work remains extremely extensive.
One specific consequence of the Russian attacks was damage to the Northern Bridge across the Dnipro River. According to information provided by Ausländer, the road surface, the trolleybus overhead contact system, and power lines were damaged, as were vehicles.
In the capital, efforts are underway to establish a backup water supply. Specifically, in the Obolon district, powerful generators helped ensure the operation of the relevant infrastructure, while problems persisted in other parts of the city.
Using this example, Ausländer raised the issue of Ukrainian cities’ preparedness for prolonged attacks on the power grid. He drew attention to reports about the need to build several additional power stations by the end of the year, with a combined capacity of approximately 40 megawatts.
“It’s not entirely clear to me why these reserve capacities weren’t secured earlier. After all, from the very first days of the invasion, it was obvious that the Russians were targeting power plants. They held out for nearly four years under constant shelling, but everything has its limits,”
In his view, cities need a more decentralized power supply system that would allow critical infrastructure to continue operating even after major power plants are damaged.
To achieve this, additional generators and other backup equipment can be used, including those purchased with the support of European partners. At the same time, the journalist acknowledged that creating such a system requires significant resources, and the equipment must be installed under the constant threat of shelling.
The problem is not limited to the capital. Dnipro, Chernihiv, and other Ukrainian cities are also forced to keep their public infrastructure running amid regular Russian attacks.
Ausländer paid particular attention to the interdependence of urban systems. He cited an explanation by Dnipro Mayor Boris Filatov: the water supply depends on electricity; water is necessary for heating systems to function; and repeatedly shutting down and restarting equipment places an additional strain on the networks.
Even after power is restored, utility workers must start the pumps, inspect the pipelines, and repair damage caused by pressure fluctuations. As a result, the return of electricity does not automatically mean that heat and water will be restored to every home.
Even in peacetime, it’s no easy task to get the heating system up and running before winter in a city like Dnipro or Kyiv. And under constant shelling, which has been going on for five years now, it’s extremely difficult
He emphasized that emergency and utility services are working under extremely difficult conditions, and their capabilities are not unlimited. Without improvements to the air defense situation, Ukrainian cities may continue to face repeated damage to infrastructure that has already been repaired.
Ukraine is targeting electronics production for Russian missiles
In parallel with Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities, the Defense Forces continue to strike facilities linked to Russia’s military-industrial complex. Among the latest targets, Ausländer named the “Proton-Elektrotex” plant in Orel and an oil refinery in the Saratov region.
"Proton-Elektrotex" specializes in the production of semiconductor devices, including diodes, thyristors, and transistors. According to the journalist, its products are used in the electronic systems of Russian armored vehicles, “Pantsir” air defense systems, “Iskander” missiles, and other types of weaponry.
The facility has been targeted before. Specifically, on October 23, there were reports of strikes and fires there, and now it has been reported that it was struck again.
Ausländer highlighted the unique aspects of semiconductor manufacturing. Such facilities require extremely precise equipment and strict control over the cleanliness of the production environment.
The sterility in these facilities is higher than in surgical operating rooms. I mean this in all seriousness. Therefore, a strike, contamination of the production process, and all the associated consequences could shut down the plant, at least for a certain period of time
That is precisely why the consequences of an attack on such a plant are not limited to visible damage. Damage to equipment or disruptions to production processes can affect the ability to restore full operation of the production lines.
Another target of Ukrainian strikes remains Russian oil refining. In the Saratov region, following yet another attack, local authorities reported damage to a facility, which they described as a civilian infrastructure site.
Subsequently, based on satellite data cited by Ausländer, the targeted facility was identified as a Rosneft facility. According to his estimates, the Saratov refinery accounted for more than 2% of Russia’s total oil refining capacity.
Ukrainian attacks also targeted other Russian regions. The journalist mentioned the launch of hundreds of drones and reports of strikes on various targets.
In his view, strikes on military-industrial complex facilities and oil refineries are gradually hampering the Russian economy. Of particular importance is the ability to strike facilities repeatedly as the enemy attempts to restore them following previous attacks.
Bridges across the Volga could become a problem
Vladimir Putin has threatened to continue destroying Ukrainian infrastructure – including power plants, ports, roads, and bridges – if negotiations do not yield the result the Kremlin desires. Ausländer noted that Russia has been trying to destroy such targets for several years now, but even its significant military capabilities have not ensured the complete destruction of Ukraine’s transportation networks.
The journalist does not believe that the recent strikes on bridges in Kyiv will significantly affect the situation on the front lines. He emphasized that these structures primarily provide urban transportation links, rather than supporting major military transport to combat zones.
At the same time, Ausländer drew attention to the vulnerability of Russia’s own transportation infrastructure. In his view, the large railway bridges across the Volga River, which connect different parts of the country, could be significant for Russian logistics.
Among the relevant routes, he mentioned the Nizhny Novgorod region. The journalist suggested that damage to key railway crossings could cause serious disruptions to freight traffic, particularly that connecting the European and Asian parts of Russia.
There are several bridges across the Volga that are of immense importance for rail transport. If attacks were to begin on them, major transport flows from east to west and in the opposite direction could come to a halt
It is difficult to completely destroy large bridge structures, even with a large number of drones. However, damage to the structures could necessitate temporarily suspending traffic and inspecting the technical condition of the facilities.
Therefore, according to the journalist’s assessment, the consequences of potential attacks must be considered not only in terms of physical destruction but also in terms of possible disruptions to the transportation system.
He also cited the experience of strikes on the Crimean Bridge. Despite the significant resources Russia is devoting to its defense, the structure has already sustained damage on multiple occasions.
A particular challenge for the Kremlin lies in the need to simultaneously defend a large number of facilities. Russian air defense forces must protect military facilities, oil refineries, transportation hubs, Moscow, and other critical areas.
Ukrainian attacks on various types of targets are forcing the enemy to reevaluate the deployment of its air defense systems. When they reinforce coverage in one direction, they must also ensure protection in others.
The Ukrainians are constantly playing a game of cat-and-mouse with these targets. One moment they attack military factories, and the Russians begin redeploying air defense systems there; the next, they strike oil refineries again. And with fairly limited resources, it’s impossible to protect absolutely everything
It was precisely this shortage of air defense assets that Ausländer cited as one of the factors that could complicate the defense of Russian infrastructure against further attacks. He does not rule out the emergence of new targets for Ukrainian strikes, although the specific course of events remains unknown.
The Russian offensive has reached a stalemate
Assessing the situation on the front lines, Ausländer stated that the Russian advance has slowed significantly. This applies most notably to the Kremlin’s plans regarding Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which remain key Ukrainian defensive strongholds in the Donetsk region.
According to the journalist, the Russian command had targeted spring 2027 as one of the possible deadlines for achieving its objectives. However, in his view, the current position of the troops offers no grounds for expecting a rapid advance toward these cities.
Ausländer attributed the Russian army’s difficulties to Ukrainian defensive and counterattacking operations. In particular, he mentioned Operation “Vivaldi,” which, in his assessment, disrupted one of the directions of the Russian offensive on Sloviansk.
If they manage to at least reach the outskirts of Sloviansk or Kramatorsk by spring 2027, it would be an incredible success for them. A major miracle, which is unlikely to happen
He identified the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka sector as another important area. In his assessment, Ukrainian counterattacks have helped stabilize the situation and prevent the Russian command from carrying out its plans.
Citing his own interpretation of assessments by the Institute for the Study of War, the journalist provided an approximate breakdown of the territory of Kostiantynivka: one-third is under Russian control, one-third remains a gray zone, and another third is under the control of the Ukrainian military.
Given this situation, he emphasized, claims of a complete capture of the city do not correspond to the situation he described. The northern districts of Kostiantynivka, he said, remain under Ukrainian control.
Ausländer is also skeptical about possible future reports from the Russian command regarding the capture of Sloviansk or Kramatorsk. He suggested that the Kremlin might try to portray the appearance of isolated assault units on the outskirts as a full-scale capture of the city or use fabricated images for this purpose.
In reality, there’s a complete stalemate on the front lines. Everything has come to a complete standstill. Perhaps some Russian assault unit will reach the outskirts of Sloviansk or Kramatorsk, wave a flag, and then they’ll announce that the city has been captured
Ausländer cited the Kupiansk sector as a specific example of the discrepancy between Russian plans and results. He noted that fighting continues in the area around the city, located approximately 40 kilometers from the Russian border.
Despite the prolonged war and the deployment of significant resources, the Russian army, according to the journalist’s assessment, has failed to achieve even a fraction of its initial territorial objectives. The situation around major Ukrainian cities in the Donetsk region also remains significantly more challenging for the enemy than its initial calculations had anticipated.
At the same time, the lack of major successes on the front does not mean the Kremlin is ready to end the war. Ausländer is convinced that Vladimir Putin will continue military operations as long as he retains power and the ability to make the necessary decisions.
The journalist did not rule out an unexpected turn of events that could change the situation without any prior warning. He referred to such a scenario as a “black swan” – an unpredictable event capable of influencing the further course of the war and the position of the Russian leadership.
Ausländer on the strike on Komyshuvakha: watch the video
If you find an error on this page, select it and press Ctrl + Enter