After his defeat in the election, right-wing Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly claimed the results were rigged, declared himself the country’s “legitimate president,” and then fled – not to Rostov-on-Don, but to the United States. Where else would a politician who is convinced that the election was stolen from him flee but to Donald Trump – the world’s leading expert in this field?
The American president, who himself has for years spoken of fraud in the 2020 election, and isnow suing the BBC, which hinted that there are questions about him as well, gladly welcomed his Brazilian like-minded colleague and even supported him in his criticism of the election results in Brazil. However, it remains unclear whether Trump’s support was actually beneficial for achieving the desired outcome.
The election was ultimately won by Brazil’s incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is now preparing to lead the country for the fourth time. And although Bolsonaro’s defeat was a real windfall for his political opponents, the election results are hardly cause for celebration for Ukraine. After all, while Bolsonaro seeks refuge with Trump, President Lula continues to cozy up to Vladimir Putin.
24 Channel analyzed the results of the presidential election in Brazil to understand how and why Lula da Silva secured victory once again, why Bolsonaro Jr. decided to flee to the United States, and why, for Ukraine, the rivalry between the two Brazilian politicians is more of an interesting political spectacle than something capable of influencing Brazil’s pro-Russian policy. Dmytro Korniienko, founder of the Resurgram analytical community, helped shed light on the intricacies of Brazilian politics .
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“Legitimate” Bolsonaro and the Stolen Election: How Brazil’s Presidential Race Ended
Even at the start of voting, it seemed as though the political career of 80-year-old Lula da Silva was gradually coming to an end. There were both political and purely physiological reasons for this view.
In the first round of the presidential election on October 4 The incumbent head of state unexpectedly lost to his main rival from the right, Flávio Bolsonaro. The son of Brazil’s 38th president, Jair Bolsonaro, received 47% of the vote, while Lula received only 45.2%. For a politician who had already won three presidential elections, this result came as a rather unpleasant surprise.
However, just three weeks later, the situation changed dramatically. According to official data, on October 25 , in the second round, Lula received 51.8% of the vote, compared to 48.2% for Bolsonaro. Thus, Luli managed to completely turn the situation around and, for the first time in the history of Brazilian presidential elections, won in the second round after losing in the first.
Moreover, one of the main factors behind this turnaround was the active mobilization of the left-wing electorate. After the setback in the first round, Lula’s team ramped up a broad social media campaign, organized numerous street protests, and effectively turned the election into a showdown between democracy and the Bolsonaro clan’s return to power.
Local media report that the campaign proved so successful that a single WhatsApp group for Lula supporters, created by Congressman André Janones, brought together over 10 million people.
Political analyst Dmytro Korniienko, in a comment to 24 Channel, points out that one of the factors behind Lula’s victory may well have been Donald Trump itself. After all, its threats and attempts to influence the Brazilian election could only have strengthened support for the incumbent president.
Dmytro Korniyenko
founder of the Resurgram analytical community
Lula managed to mobilize an additional 10 million voters, compared to Bolsonaro’s 3 million. And this ultimately proved to be the decisive factor. Trump’s attacks on Brazil – including threats of trade wars, aggressive rhetoric, and so on – are also cited as important factors here. If we look at Lula’s latest statement regarding Bolsonaro, he emphasized that Bolsonaro went to kiss the Americans’ boots.
Bolsonaro himself came up with a rather interesting explanation for his defeat. On election day, due to heavy rains and public transportation problems, Brazilian authorities allowed some polling stations to remain open for two hours longer.
Flavio Bolsonaro immediately took advantage of the situation, alleging vote rigging, and even demanded that the results be annulled. However, he never provided any evidence of widespread fraud, and the margin between the candidates ultimately stood at a whopping 4.4 million votes.
What adds a certain irony to the situation is that even Bolsonaro’s own Liberal Party eventually officially recognized Lula’s victory. Moreover, party members did not encounter any problems with the voting at all, as the right wing managed to significantly strengthen its position in the Brazilian Congress. So it’s hardly accurate to speak of a political defeat for Bolsonaro’s party; it’s more a matter of a personal fiasco and his leader’s dissatisfaction with the results.
And Flávio Bolsonaro actually has plenty of reasons to be concerned; these problems date back to his father’s presidency. In the end, while his party colleagues were celebrating an increase in seats in the Brazilian Congress, the former presidential candidate had already was looking for a way to leave Brazil as quickly as possible. And his choice ultimately fell on the United States of America.
Father under arrest, son in exile: how the Bolsonaro clan is fighting for power in Brazil
The story of the Bolsonaro family is gradually turning into a sort of political sitcom for Brazil. Back in late 2022, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, having lost the election to that very same Lula da Silva, decided not to wait for the transfer of power and hastily left for Florida, refusing to acknowledge his defeat at the polls.
Then, in January 2023, his supporters – refusing to accept the results – staged a full-scale storming of government buildings in Brazil’s capital. The resemblance to the events in Washington on January 6, 2021, was so obvious that the Brazilian unrest was quickly dubbed a local version of the Capitol riot. It’s no wonder that Bolsonaro Sr. earned the nickname “Tropical Trump” even before he took office.
However, unlike Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro has not managed to return to power. Nor did he manage to evade justice – which could be a compelling argument in a debate over the rule of law in the United States and the Federative Republic, should such a debate arise. In September 2025, the Brazilian Supreme Court sentenced the former president to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup d'état.
Currently, Bolsonaro Sr. is under house arrest, so his eldest son, Flávio, had to represent his political clan in the 2026 presidential election, promising not only to continue his father’s legacy but also to secure his release.
However, Flávio Bolsonaro himself has faced no fewer legal troubles. According to The Washington Post, he is under investigation for financial ties to a banker suspected of large-scale fraud, as well as to another individual suspected of laundering money linked to the gambling industry. Bolsonaro himself denies all charges and openly calls these investigations political persecution.
On October 26, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered the politician to surrender his passports and barred him from leaving the country. However , instead , Bolsonaro, along with his wife and two daughters, quickly crossed the land border with Argentina the very next day – October 27 – from where he flew by private jet to Ecuador and eventually to Miami. Notably, just the day before this escape, he had publicly insisted that he had no intention of leaving Brazil #BolsonaroDidNotFlee
A particularly interesting detail of this “special operation” is that people from Donald Trump’s inner circle were involved in organizing Bolsonaro Jr.’s escape. According to The New York Times, Jason Miller, an adviser to the U.S. president who runs My own history of dealings with the Brazilian judiciary, helped find a private jet for Bolsonaro. Moreover, Trump himself eventually called the Brazilian elections “very strange” and confirmed that he had allowed the politician to come to the U.S.
Dmytro Korniyenko
founder of the Resurgram analytical community
Flavio Bolsonaro is promoting a narrative that Donald Trump finds very relatable – he speaks of a “stolen election.” This is a familiar theme that will provide the necessary political support, particularly so that his family – essentially the Bolsonaro political clan – can continue to operate at the parliamentary level.
This is not the end of the story
It would be premature to call this story the definitive collapse of a political dynasty. After all, while Flávio Bolsonaro was fleeing possible arrest in Florida, other members of the family were successfully winning seats in the Brazilian parliament.
For example, his father’s wife – Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle – became a senator, as did his son Carlos.
Flavio Bolsonaro with his brother Eduardo at an audience at the White House / Photo – Wikimedia
According to Dmytro Korniyenko, Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight to the U.S. may have not only legal but also quite pragmatic political motives. After all, the former presidential candidate now has the opportunity to represent his family’s interests directly within Donald Trump’s inner circle.
Dmytro Korniyenko
founder of the Resurgram analytical community
He will now serve as a sort of honorary ambassador for the Bolsonaro family within Trump’s inner circle. This is necessary, in particular, to secure a certain degree of immunity for himself and his family and to maintain the ability to operate within Brazilian politics.
Thus, Bolsonaro’s departure may turn out to be not so much the end of his political career as the beginning of a new role – that of an unofficial representative of the Brazilian right within the Trump administration. And given the U.S. president’s penchant for interfering in the domestic politics of other countries, this could become quite a troublesome issue for Lula.
The Struggle Among Putin’s Friends: What Lula da Silva’s Victory Means for Ukraine
Amid all these transatlantic twists and turns, a key question arises: which of these figures is more acceptable to Ukraine today?
In reality, there is no difference in the broader sense, since both political camps, despite all their mutual hatred, turn out to be surprisingly lenient toward Vladimir Putin.
The figure of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva himself also deserves special attention. After all, Brazil’s current president has come a long way from being an ordinary worker and union leader to becoming one of Latin America’s most influential politicians.
He previously served two terms as president from 2003 to 2010, becoming famous for his large-scale social programs and the fight against poverty, only to later find himself behind bars due to a corruption scandal.
However, in 2021, the Supreme Court overturned the convictions of Brazil’s 35th president due to procedural violations and ruled that the judge who presided over one of the cases was biased. Ultimately, this allowed Lula to return to national politics and win the presidential election again, defeating Jair Bolsonaro.
But while Lula positions himself domestically as a defender of the poor and a champion of social justice, his foreign policy appears somewhat less principled, especially when it comes to Russia and Vladimir Putin.
For example, in 2025, the Brazilian president personally traveled to Moscow for the May 9 celebrations, which played into the Kremlin’s hands and allowed it to show the world that Russia is not, in fact, internationally isolated. Moreover, during his meeting with Putin, Lula expressed a desire to expand trade and strategic relations between the countries within the framework of the “ BRICS ” (note that the “B” in this acronym stands for Brazil).
At the same time, political analyst Dmytro Korniienko notes that despite its close economic and diplomatic ties with Russia and China, Brazil is far from always willing to support their geopolitical ambitions. This is especially true when it comes to Latin America, which the Brazilian leadership traditionally views as its own sphere of influence.
Dmytro Korniienko
founder of the Resurgram analytical community
Within the BRICS framework, Brazil blocked Russian proposals supported by China, particularly regarding the admission of Venezuela – led by Nicolás Maduro – into BRICS, as well as Nicaragua and other countries. In other words, Brazil views South America as its geopolitical sphere of influence and believes that only it can determine which countries join alliances such as BRICS.
But this isn’t just about diplomatic games with the Russian dictator. According to Brazilian government statistics, in March and April 2026 alone , Brazil purchased nearly one and a half billion dollars’ worth of Russian diesel fuel. This accounts for over 81% of all diesel imported by the country during that period.
There are reports that the Russian diesel fuel granted amnesty by Trump will be shipped to Brazil, because In the U.S., no one wants to deal with toxic substances.
Thus, while Ukrainian cities suffer from Russian missile strikes and the European Union – albeit reluctantly – is moving toward phasing out Russian energy resources, Lula’s government is effectively helping to flood the Russian economy with billions in revenue.
In addition, Lula has repeatedly spoken of the need for peace talks and even, together with China, presented a separate “peace plan” in 2024. However, this did not prevent him from previously accusing Ukraine and the West of prolonging the war.
Specifically, as early as April 2023, he claimed that the decision to go to war was allegedly made by two countries, and that Western arms supplies are merely prolonging the hostilities.
However, Lula da Silva did take certain steps toward Kyiv. In June 2026, he met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France and offered to help advance peace talks. The Ukrainian side agreed to continue consultations, although Zelenskyy separately emphasized at the time the need for stronger pressure on Russia.
And this raises an obvious question: if Lula can be considered predominantly pro-Russian, would Flávio Bolsonaro have been a better alternative? Given his father’s political legacy, there is, in fact, little reason for such optimism.
After all, on February 16, 2022 – just eight days before the full-scale invasion – Jair Bolsonaro personally met with Putin in the Kremlin and declared solidarity with Russia. And after the war began, he refused to condemn the Russian dictator, declaring Brazil’s neutrality.
To be fair, Brazil itself did support a draft resolution in the UN Security Council condemning the Russian invasion at that time. But it did not refuse to purchase Russian diesel fuel. Specifically, this one: This feature was launched even before Lula.
Yet in today’s political climate, a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro could still open up certain opportunities for Ukraine, as he is aligned with Donald Trump and would therefore act in line with Trump’s interests, particularly regarding China. Dmytro Korniyenko points this out in an interview with 24 Channel.
Dmytro Korniienko
founder of the Resurgram analytical community
Of course, we wouldn’t know what his policy toward Ukraine would be, but we would be aware of several factors that, in principle, are of interest to us. One is a cooling of relations between Brazil and China. It’s unlikely to mean a cooling of relations with Russia, but rather the establishment of a certain balance in those relations, which could also be viewed as a positive.
That said, Trump is so unpredictable to everyone (even to himself) that it’s definitely not worth building any strategy on this assumption.
Ultimately, though, the main issue for Ukraine isn’t even who won the Brazilian election. After all, despite all ideological differences, both Lula’s left-wing supporters and Bolsonaro’s right-wing camp have traditionally viewed Russia first and foremost as a beneficial economic and geopolitical partner. Consequently, a change in president is unlikely to radically alter Brazil’s stance toward the Kremlin.
Congratulations to the winner of the Brazilian election from the President of Ukraine:
And while Brazilian politicians argue about democracy, corruption, and rigged elections, Vladimir Putin may be satisfied with the election results regardless of who wins. After all, in this scenario, Russia has a much better chance of retaining its partners than Ukraine does of gaining a new ally.
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