Putin Disrupted the Ceasefire, Trump Failed to Reach an Agreement: Why Ukraine Is Striking Russian Oil Refineries Again

Ukraine has paused its strikes on Russian oil refineries, but the Kremlin has used this time to launch new attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector. Following the strike on the Kremenchuk oil refinery, Kyiv resumed large-scale operations against Russia’s oil infrastructure, and hopes for an energy truce and agreements between Washington and Moscow were jeopardized.

Diplomat Volodymyr Ogryzko, in an interview with 24 Channel, explained why Russia perceives concessions as weakness, what happened to Trump's “diesel deal” and why negotiations with the Kremlin without real pressure will not yield results. He also assessed how Ukraine can force Moscow to take its conditions into account and why Europe still misunderstands the Russian government.

The End of the “Energy Truce”: Why Ukraine Resumed Strikes on Oil Refineries

For over three weeks, Ukraine maintained an unofficial pause in its attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure. It was expected that this would be a step toward the so-called "energy truce",” which was actively discussed in Western political circles.

However, reality turned out differently: Russia used this time to continue the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s energy sector, culminating in a brazen strike on the Kremenchuk oil refinery in the Poltava region.

This move by Moscow served as a catalyst for a shift in Kyiv’s approach. As Volodymyr Ogryzko notes, Ukraine can no longer remain in a wait-and-see position until its Western partners give the green light for active measures.

The response was a large-scale drone attack on three major oil refineries in Ufa (Bashkortostan) owned by key Russian oil giants. This is a clear signal: any attempts to negotiate with the aggressor without the use of force are perceived by it solely as a sign of weakness.

Full interview with Ogryzko: watch the video

The Failure of Trump’s “Diesel Diplomacy”

Against the backdrop of escalation on the front lines, political maneuvers in the U.S. appear detached from reality. Donald Trump’s attempts to demonstrate his ability to negotiate with Russia – particularly through so-called “ "diesel deal" ” – are falling apart. The Russian diesel fuel, which was supposed to signal a thaw in relations, will most likely never even reach American ports.

The reason lies in the hardline stance of Democrats and state officials, who have warned tanker owners and insurers of the inevitable legal consequences for violating U.S. law.

Reputational and financial risks are forcing businesses to abandon Russian energy resources, redirecting them to countries such as Brazil or Cuba. Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been forced to admit that no real breakthrough in relations with the U.S. has occurred, and that the pressure from sanctions is only intensifying.

As a reminder , on October 30, 2026,Sergey Lavrov stated that despite the resumption of contacts with Washington, there has been no real progress in relations between the two countries. At a press conference in Atlanta, he emphasized that sanctions against Russia remain in effect, and that the Donald Trump administration is imposing new restrictions on the Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Lavrov also urged people not to harbor any illusions about the agreement to supply Russian diesel fuel to the U.S., as it does not indicate a genuine thaw in relations.

The European Illusion of Institutions: Why the West Does Not Understand Russia

An even bigger problem is the fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of Russian power by European politicians. Statements by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who called on Lavrov to behave like a “gentleman in a club,” vividly illustrate this gulf in perception.

Volodymyr Ogryzko emphasizes that applying the concepts of European diplomacy to Russian officials is like banging one’s head against an open door. In Russia, there are no independent institutions, no parliament, and no ministers in the Western sense.

All officials, including Lavrov, are merely executors of the dictator’s will, possessing neither their own opinions nor the right to act independently. Europe’s belief that a constructive dialogue can be held with Russian ministers is a delusional fantasy.

The only way to change the situation is to pull the rug out from under the Russian dictator’s throne, rather than trying to negotiate with his subordinates.

The Dead End of the Negotiation Track

All talk of possible negotiations, whether in Turkey or elsewhere, is currently devoid of practical meaning. Russia continues to insist on achieving all the objectives of its aggression, which makes any political dialogue impossible. The only areas where specific agreements are still possible are humanitarian issues and the exchange of prisoners.

Ukraine has no “territorial issues” to discuss – there are only the issues of a ceasefire and the restoration of territorial integrity. Any territorial concessions constitute a criminal offense under Ukrainian law.

Therefore, the only effective means of compelling Putin to make peace remains force: strengthening long-range sanctions, destroying Russia’s economic base (particularly oil refineries), and providing continuous support to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Only total pressure can create the conditions for negotiations – but only on Ukraine’s terms.”