The author of the Telegram channel “Byt Ili” analyzes the extent of U.S. President Donald Trump’s dependence on Russia and points to the very real possibility of a scenario in which Trump refuses to acknowledge the results of the November 3 election, and his supporters, incited by Russian bots and trolls, could potentially spark a civil war in America with all the negative consequences that entails.
24 Channel, with the author’s permission, is publishing a text version of the analytical report. It has been translated and abridged for better audience comprehension.
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Trump Is Not Agent Krasnov – It’s Even Worse
Many people try to explain Donald Trump’s actions by citing the existence of long-standing compromising material or his recruitment by the KGB (the Soviet intelligence agency known as the Committee for State Security – 24 Channel) as “Agent Krasnov” as far back as 1987. However, this is merely a conspiracy theory that does not explain the actual state of affairs.
If Trump were truly an agent of Moscow, it would be in the Kremlin’s interest to keep him in power as long as possible, avoiding drastic moves before the election. Instead, Trump’s behavior can be explained by his unique approach to high-level politics. He strives to reduce any geopolitical issue to a commercial matter.
This logic has already failed during attempts to reach an agreement with Kim Jong Un. Trump offered the dictator “economic prosperity” in exchange for a nuclear compromise, failing to understand that the well-being of the North Korean people is, in fact, perhaps the greatest threat to the dictator’s own power.
The situation with Putin is identical. The Russian president has a completely different set of values – he wants an empire, not a prosperous population (because then people might start thinking about their rights). Trump, who is accustomed to measuring the success of political agreements in terms of money, fundamentally fails to understand this.
The Technology of Division: 85 Percent Subversive Activity
Instead of simply supporting a favorable candidate, Russia employs sophisticated methods of subversive activity.
Former Soviet spy Yuri Bezmenov, who defected to the West in 1970 and spent the following decade detailing the KGB’s operating principles in his lectures – including the methods of Soviet psychological warfare, disinformation, and ideological subversion – said that espionage itself accounted for only 10–15 percent of the KGB’s resources, while the remaining 85 percent consisted of subversive activities aimed at dividing society from within.
Modern Russian bot farms operate according to Philip of Macedon’s principle: “divide and conquer.” Their main goal was not to instill a love for Russia in Americans, but to turn them against their own government.
To this end, they exploited the most contentious issues in American society: the right to bear arms, minority rights, and religious issues.
A striking example of this strategy was the 2016 events in Houston, where Russian operatives simultaneously organized two rallies: one against the “Islamization of Texas” and the other in defense of Islam. The goal was solely to pit people against one another.
The Kremlin has no ideological bias in its information operations. For example, in 2016 and 2020, Russian bot farms supported not only the nominally right-wing Trump but also the far-left Bernie Sanders.
The same tactic is used in Europe, where Moscow simultaneously funds far-right and far-left politicians in Germany, France, Greece, and Poland. Even during the student protests in the U.S. in 2024, the same Kremlin-linked networks were spreading both pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli narratives.
The goal is to drive public debates to the point of absurdity by pouring fuel on the most heated conflicts. Russia exploits traditional values solely for its own interests, while remaining a plain-and-simple dictatorship.
A Trap for Trump: Flattery Instead of Blackmail
Putin skillfully plays on Trump’s psychological traits. Instead of the mythical blackmail with compromising material, the Kremlin acts much more subtly.
The Russian dictator methodically highlights the benefits of potential cooperation, portraying Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the main obstacle to these riches.
Putin plays into Trump’s ego by publicly stating that if Trump’s “victory hadn’t been stolen in 2020,” there would be no war. Additionally, Putin plays up his ties to Iran, offering himself as a mediator.
This is the subtle work of a KGB agent against a New York stockbroker who is susceptible to flattery, has a penchant for dictatorial tendencies, and takes pride in passing a basic cognitive test to memorize five words, calling himself a genius.
The Threat of Non-Recognition of the Election and the Kremlin’s True Goal
The main danger lies not in the fact that Trump is someone’s agent, but in the fact that he is an extremely convenient figure for destabilizing the U.S.
And this raises the key question: What will happen if Trump refuses to accept the election results?
No one knows the answer to that yet. But there are grounds for concern – and they are very serious.
The Kremlin’s true goal is not a friendly United States, but a war among the states themselves. Russian propagandists and bot armies are already preparing to stoke the narrative of a “stolen election.” Because polls are already predicting that Republicans will lose ground in both houses of Congress.
By exploiting the core of Trump’s supporters – who are willing to believe in conspiracy theories – Moscow hopes to provoke the most massive domestic political crisis, one that could make Trump the last president in U.S. history.
Is a civil war possible in the U.S.? Watch the video:
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