Old Military Complexes vs a New Threat: How Ukraine Can Thwart Russia's Plans with the "Gerans"

Russia continues to improve its weapons systems, in particular by developing new variants of jet-powered drones and increasing its use of ballistic missiles. However, not all of these developments pose an equally serious threat: some targets can be destroyed even with older anti-aircraft missile systems. At the same time, Ukraine needs to strengthen its own air defense, develop missile programs, and strike at the enemy’s logistics and military infrastructure.

Military expert and retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel Roman Svitan told 24 Channel why the Russian “Geran-5” will not be a difficult target for Ukrainian air defense, which systems can effectively counter such drones, and whether Ukraine is capable of developing its own ballistic missile interception capabilities. The expert also explained why strikes against Russian logistics and military facilities are more important than diplomatic promises.

Why the “Geran-5” Is an Easy Target for Missiles

The new version of the Russian “ "Geran-5" ” drone is essentially a makeshift missile. It lacks terrain-following capabilities at extremely low altitudes, powerful electronic countermeasures, or composite materials for stealth.

Its main advantage is speed, achieved thanks to its cigar-shaped fuselage and jet engine. However, this speed is strictly subsonic. With the speed of sound near the ground at about 1,200 kilometers per hour, the "Geran-5" can reach a maximum speed of 1,000 kilometers per hour.

Reaching supersonic speeds is impossible for this design – the vehicle would simply fall apart due to the laws of aerodynamics, which require a swept-back wing and other complex engineering solutions.

For mobile fire teams armed with machine guns, this speed is indeed a critical problem – they simply won’t have time to take aim. But for anti-aircraft missiles, it’s an easy target.

The interceptor missile from the old Soviet “Osa” system (9M33) flies at a speed of one and a half Mach (1,500–2,000 km/h), which is twice the speed of the new “Gerani.” More modern missiles, such as those used in the Finnish Crotale systems, reach speeds exceeding 4,000 km/h.

Furthermore, the “Geran-5” is incapable of maneuvering under high g-forces. Anti-aircraft missiles were designed to destroy fighter jets that maneuver at g-loads of up to 9G, whereas the anti-missile missiles themselves can withstand 40–60G. Therefore, a non-maneuvering subsonic target is easily shot down by them.

Relying on Short-Range Air Defense Systems

The optimal solution for countering new jet-powered drones is the deployment of a frontline air defense system based on the " short-range anti-aircraft missile systems."

These include systems such as the British Stormer, the French Crotale, the Finnish Sisu, or the Soviet “Osa.” The main need right now is a sufficient number of the systems themselves and inexpensive missiles for them, which will serve as expendable munitions.

For example, the Ukrainian design bureau “Luch” is already working on developing the RK-19 missile to replace the outdated ammunition for the “Osa.”

There are thousands of “Osa” systems in the world, produced over the past half-century. They need to be located, purchased, have their guidance systems digitized, and put on combat duty. This will create a dense shield that will not allow a single such aerial target to penetrate the country’s rear.

Ballistic Missile Interception: From “Oreshnik” to Domestic Designs

Another serious challenge remains Russian ballistic missiles, particularly medium-range missiles such as the "Oreshnik".

These weapons travel beyond the atmosphere (over 100 kilometers), and they must be intercepted before the warhead breaks up into sub-units. This requires exoatmospheric interception systems, such as the American THAAD (altitude up to 200 km), the Israeli Arrow 3, or the Aegis ship-based systems with SM-3 missiles, capable of engaging targets at altitudes of up to 1,500 kilometers.

However, these are extremely expensive and scarce solutions. The best defense against ballistic missiles is the destruction of the enemy’s launchers and infrastructure on its own territory. To achieve this, Ukraine needs its own ballistic weapons.

The “ "Sapsan" ” program, which is currently receiving active funding, is expected to yield results in the near future. Mass-produced batches of these missiles, with a range of 500 kilometers, will allow Ukraine to keep key targets – all the way to Moscow – within striking range.

In addition, Ukraine has the potential to develop its own anti-ballistic systems based on the “Kilchen” project from Pivdenmash.

Drawing on their experience in developing intercontinental missiles, Ukrainian engineers are capable of creating medium- and long-range systems that can intercept Russian ballistic missiles by generating a cloud of warheads at the point of impact.

Strikes on Logistics as an Element of Active Defense

While production of its own missiles is ramping up, Ukraine is already successfully using existing capabilities to disrupt Russian logistics.

an attack on the bridge over the Mius River in the Rostov Region, is a prime example. This crossing is part of the so-called Trans-Azov highway, which connects Rostov via Taganrog and Mariupol to the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and Crimea.

The destruction of this bridge by drones proves that Ukrainian forces have taken full fire control of the enemy’s land corridor.

The Russians will attempt to set up pontoon bridges, but these are even easier targets for drones – just 50 kilograms of explosives are enough to sever the connections, after which the river’s swift current will destroy the structure.

Systematic strikes on bridges and overpasses on Russian territory significantly complicate the supply of the occupying forces and are an integral part of the strategy to wear down the enemy.

Diplomatic Illusions and Reality on the Battlefield

All the talk of so-called “ "peace agreements",” “freezing the conflict,” or “territorial concessions” coming from Western politicians has nothing to do with a real solution to the problem.

Any halt to hostilities or cessation of strikes against the Russian economy will only give Moscow time to regroup for the continued destruction of Ukraine. European leaders’ contacts with the Kremlin only provoke the aggressor into launching new terrorist attacks against civilian infrastructure.

The only effective argument in this war is mathematics and technology. Instead of hoping for a shift in the political landscape, Ukraine must focus on expanding its own military capabilities: from modernizing old air defense systems to shoot down “Geraniums” to the mass production of “Sapsan” ballistic missiles.

Only by shifting the war onto Russian territory and posing a symmetrical threat to its capital can the security of Ukrainian cities be guaranteed.

Military expert, retired Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel, on countering the enemy: video