Putin Is Stalling, Trump Is Pressuring Kyiv: Why the Negotiations Could Turn Into a Trap for Ukraine

Ukraine could simultaneously be deprived of critically important military aid and pressured into making concessions that would play into Russia’s hands. Delays in the delivery of Patriot and SAMP/T systems, the deactivation of Starshield, and proposals for territorial swaps and an energy truce paint a dangerous picture for Kyiv. Meanwhile, Moscow is using the negotiations to advance its own demands and buy time.

Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics, explained in an interview with the War & Politics 24 Channel why he considers the blocking of air defense deliveries to be a tool for exerting pressure on Ukraine, what the risks are of negotiations without political guarantees, and why proposals regarding Donbas and an energy truce may ultimately benefit the Kremlin most of all. He also assessed how the results of the U.S. election could affect continued support for Ukraine.

Blocking air defense and communications as a tool of pressure.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has faced unexpected obstacles in receiving critically important military aid. European allies are ready to transfer Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems to Kyiv – systems that have already been paid for and are urgently needed to defend against Russian attacks this winter. However, the process has stalled due to a lack of approval from the U.S.

According to Scott Lucas, this delay is not a bureaucratic error. The supply mechanism stipulates that the U.S. sells weapons to NATO members, who then transfer them to Ukraine. The blocking of this process – in which Pete Hegseth and his deputy, Elbridge Colby, are involved – is a deliberate move.

Moreover, this is not an independent decision by individual officials. The "shutdown of the military version of the Starshield satellite communications system", which lasted over a week, also fits into this logic.

Lucas emphasizes that Elon Musk did not act on his own – the decision was coordinated with the White House, likely with the involvement of advisors at the level of Stephen Miller. The goal of this campaign is to exert maximum pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to force it to agree to unfavorable terms for ending the war.

Full conversation with Lucas: watch the video

The “technical negotiations” trap

Against the backdrop of this pressure, Russia is demonstrating its readiness for so-called “technical negotiations mediated by the United States,” which may take place in Abu Dhabi. An aide to the Russian dictator, Yuri Ushakov, even stated that the war is nearing its end.

However, Lucas warns against optimism: for the Kremlin, this merely means moving closer to achieving its maximalist goals, specifically the complete occupation of the Donbas. Technical negotiations, which may concern prisoner exchanges or de-escalation along the line of contact, are a convenient format for Moscow. They allow Moscow to mimic a diplomatic process while avoiding substantive political decisions regarding security guarantees for Ukraine or its territorial integrity.

Russia is simply stalling for time while preparing for a winter air offensive to force Kyiv to capitulate. This is precisely why President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists on the need for a summit-level meeting, as any technical agreements will be futile without resolving fundamental political issues.

The Illusion of an Energy Truce and Territorial Bargaining

At the same time, within Donald Trump’s inner circle – specifically through Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – ideas for a partial ceasefire are being promoted. One of these is an energy truce in the form of “oil refinery for oil refinery.”

Lucas points out the absurdity of such a proposal: it benefits Russia exclusively. Ukraine currently has no fully operational oil refineries, whereas Russia has numerous such facilities, which are legitimate targets for Ukrainian strikes.

Another dangerous idea is a territorial exchange. The proposal is to cede the remainder of the Donetsk region to Russia in exchange for the liberation of part of the occupied territories in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

However, Russia has no intention of relinquishing the southern regions, and handing over the fortified Donbas would constitute a strategic defeat. Moreover, some U.S. officials are talking not only about de facto but also about de jure recognition of the Russian occupation, including Crimea. This is a direct violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and a betrayal of the millions of Ukrainians living under occupation.

A Phantom Summit with China

Another Kremlin initiative is a proposal for a trilateral summit between Russia, the United States, and China, where discussions on Ukraine’s fate are planned without Ukraine’s participation. This is a repeat of a dangerous scenario in which major powers attempt to impose terms over Kyiv’s head.

However, Lucas doubts the feasibility of such a format. First, Beijing has so far refrained from directly supporting Russian aggression, and it is unclear what benefit it would gain from participating in such talks.

Second, the radical plans of some members of the Trump camp regarding a possible air war against Iran could push China away from the negotiating table with the Americans. Therefore, at this point, this idea appears to be more of an attempt by Moscow to legitimize its demands by leveraging Beijing’s influence than a viable diplomatic track.

The U.S. Election Factor and Global Risks

Further developments depend largely on the domestic situation in the U.S. If Trump’s hardliners maintain or strengthen their positions, the pressure on Ukraine will only increase.

They will view this as a mandate from voters to cut off aid and move closer to Putin. Conversely, their defeat could create space for those Republicans who disagree with the anti-Ukrainian course.

A separate threat is a potential political crisis within the United States itself. Lucas draws parallels with the elections in Brazil and warns that Trump’s team may try to challenge the results, leading to weeks of chaos. In such a situation, Washington will have other priorities than Ukraine.

Another alarming sign is that the Trump administration is considering supporting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for the position of UN Secretary-General. The willingness to support autocrats on the international stage indicates that this political group will have no moral qualms about trying to force Ukraine to capitulate.