Will Russia Plunge Ukraine into Darkness: What Will Determine the Fate of the Power Grid This Winter – An Analysis by 24 Channel

Russia is intensifying its attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector in an attempt to deprive the country of electricity and heat ahead of the cold snap. The effects of the attacks are already being felt in various regions, and energy workers are forced to simultaneously repair damaged facilities and prepare the grid for increased consumption this winter.

But are Russian shelling attacks capable of causing a large-scale blackout, and what could be the deciding factor in the struggle to maintain the stability of the power grid? Even with preparations underway for new attacks, much will depend on the extent of the damage, the speed of repairs, and the air temperature.

Furthermore, the question is not only whether there will be electricity, but also how prepared Ukrainian cities and their residents are for prolonged outages. President Zelenskyy and city residents have already drawn attention to problems with Kyiv’s preparations for winter, while energy officials are warning of various scenarios for the coming cold season.

24 Channel has compiled what is known about the consequences of Russian attacks, what power outages might look like this winter, and what steps should be taken in advance to prepare for potential disruptions. Read on for details.

Russia is trying to deprive Ukrainians of light and heat

Russian troops are systematically attacking power grids, substations, and power generation facilities, ignoring U.S. President Trump’s “energy truce.” Ukrainian energy workers are repairing damaged equipment, and protective structures are helping to mitigate the impact of the strikes.

According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research, Russia has not achieved its goal of completely cutting off power to the capital and isolating the Left Bank from power generation on the right bank of the Dnipro River.

“All this talk from Moscow’s propagandists will lead nowhere. We are faster and better at defending our energy sector than they are at destroying it,” he said.

At the same time, this does not mean there will be no prolonged power outages. The situation will depend on the intensity of future attacks, the scale of the damage, and the speed of repairs.

Massive attacks are causing power outages in various regions

In the second half of October, Russia launched several massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The strike, which lasted from the evening of October 16 to the morning of October 17, involved more than 320 drones and missiles. More than 15 power generation and transmission facilities were hit; the situation was most critical in Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Shepetivka, Slavuta, and Netishyn.

On the night of October 18–19, Russian forces attacked Kyiv and the Kyiv region, including 16 ballistic missiles. More than 10 energy facilities were damaged, and at least 550,000 families were left without power.

On the evening of October 20 and the night of October 21, the enemy deployed “Iskander-K” missiles and 186 attack drones, 150 of which were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense forces. Impacts were recorded at 27 locations, with debris falling at another 13. Energy facilities in the Bucha district of Kyiv Oblast and in Odesa Oblast were targeted.

A new attack on the night of October 23 and in the morning of the same day affected, in particular, the Zhytomyr, Volyn, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, and Rivne regions. According to the Ministry of Energy, more than 500,000 Ukrainians were left without electricity. New power outages were also reported in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.

On the same day, the occupiers attacked an energy infrastructure facility in the Lviv district. As a result of the strike, 175 settlements in the region were left without power: 154 completely and another 21 partially. Energy workers are working to restore power.

In Rivne Oblast, shelling caused a fire at an energy facility. Due to the threat of further strikes, rescue workers temporarily withdrew to a safe distance but later extinguished the fire.

Utility workers are continuing repairs, particularly in the Odesa and Ternopil regions. Due to damage to power grids in certain regions, hourly power outages are in effect for residential customers, and power restrictions are in place for industrial consumers.

As of the morning of October 23, electricity consumption was 3.6% lower than at the same time the previous day. Ukrainians were urged to use electricity sparingly and to limit the use of high-power appliances from 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.

Zelenskyy Warned of Problems with Kyiv’s Winter Preparedness

Against the backdrop of Russian attacks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized Kyiv's resilience plan, noting that the capital is lagging behind other regions. According to him, the problems concern not only critical infrastructure but also the readiness of residential buildings, schools, shelters, and transportation for the cold weather.

Isolated “Shahed” strikes are causing power and water outages. Unfortunately, there are many other issues as well. These include shelters, school preparations, the construction of protective structures, transportation operations, and the preparation of buildings in Kyiv for winter. Kyiv is lagging behind our other regions in implementing resilience plans. We need solutions; we need to accelerate our efforts,” the president emphasized.

To speed up the capital’s preparations, Zelenskyy even consulted with Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov and Zaporizhzhia Regional State Administration Head Ivan Fedorov. Members of Parliament also supported the decision to summon Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko to appear before the Verkhovna Rada to report on the city’s winter preparations.

By the way, Vitali Klitschko gave a report to the Verkhovna Rada regarding the capital’s supply of generators and boiler rooms for the winter amid large-scale attacks on the energy sector. The official demonstrated his political footwork and dismissed accusations of disrupting the heating season as baseless. The mayor also made sure to mention political pressure and the blocking of funds by the central government.

How many hours without power could Kyiv face this winter?

Kyiv depends on electricity supplied through the national grid. Damage to key nodes and substations in the Kyiv region could limit the supply to the capital, so consumption must be regulated.

Kyiv’s current demand is estimated at approximately 1.1–1.2 gigawatts, and in winter, the load could rise to 2 gigawatts.

There are three possible scenarios for power outages:

• Favorable: in the absence of critical damage and with prompt repairs, power outages may last 8–10 hours per day;
• Moderate: If there are new attacks and moderate cold, outages could last 12–16 hours.
• Worst-case: If severe cold coincides with regular attacks on key substations, power outages could last up to 20 hours a day.

These are possible scenarios, not guaranteed schedules. The actual situation will depend on further shelling and the speed of the power grid’s restoration.

How to Prepare for Power Outages

Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research, advises residents of apartment buildings to ensure proper insulation and have backup power for their heating systems.

The most important thing right now is to check how well your buildings are insulated, how well the entryways are sealed, and whether cold air is seeping under the roof or into the basement. Second, ensure a backup power supply for the circulation pumps that deliver hot water. This is a preparatory step that can still easily be implemented in every home right now,” the expert explained.

Sean Piner, a former British soldier and Ukrainian marine who was held captive by the Russians, said that his home is equipped with solar panels, an inverter, and a diesel generator. The family also has power banks and charging stations, but such equipment isn’t available to everyone.

That is why the “resilience centers” being set up in cities are of paramount importance. You just need to walk into a supermarket in Dnipro to see people charging their phones and staying warmhe emphasized.

Zelenskyy called for maintaining pressure on Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy linked the continuation of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector to the easing of sanctions pressure and called on international partners not to deviate from the chosen course.

Important! Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced that Donald Trump’s easing of economic pressure on Moscow will not stop the aggression, but will only embolden the Kremlin. The lifting of restrictions on Russian fuel is just the beginning of a dangerous process. Despite this, the head of state is counting on the White House’s resolve to stop attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and bring the war to an end.

An American sanctions blackout and easing pressure on the aggressor will only encourage it (the Kremlin – 24 Channel) to keep striking. We must not give up our positions and must try to end the warthe president emphasized.

Oleksandr Kharchenko also noted the assistance from European partners who are supplying Ukraine with necessary equipment, although the process is sometimes delayed by bureaucratic procedures.

Despite Russian attacks, the expert believes that Ukraine has the resources and understanding of how to act in the face of energy threats.