Russia Is Looking for NATO's Weak Spot, While Trump Is Preparing a Major Deal: What Does This Mean for Ukraine?

Russia may be preparing a strike against NATO countries that does not require its army to cross any borders: it would be enough to disable critical undersea cables to disrupt financial transactions and the exchange of intelligence. At the same time, the Kremlin is rushing the negotiations, and Ukraine risks finding itself at the center of a major geopolitical game, where attempts may be made to discuss its future without Kyiv.

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Espionage Under the Guise of Fishing

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin realizes it is impossible to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, so he may be changing tactics by preparing large-scale hybrid operations against NATO countries. The main target for a potential strike is not the Baltic region, as previously thought, but the United Kingdom.

Russia has launched “a large-scale intelligence campaign ” off the coast of Great Britain. Civilian fishing vessels are being used for this purpose, with cartography specialists – and, presumably, FSB or counterintelligence officers – boarding them under special orders. Their main task is to conduct a thorough survey of the seabed.

Russian vessels were spotted near strategic NATO facilities / photo from open sources

The very existence of undersea cables connecting the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States is no secret. However, the Russians are seeking the exact coordinates of their locations, creating detailed maps for potential targeted sabotage.

The Kremlin’s likely goal is to be able to, at any moment, supposedly “accidentally” snag a critically important cable with an anchor, thereby physically cutting off Britain from its key allies.

Catastrophic consequences for the financial system and NATO intelligence

Damage to these communications would have the effect of a fragmentation bomb on the digital world.

First, it would instantly paralyze the operations of banks and international financial systems. In today’s world, which is entirely dependent on digital data exchange, such a move could set the United Kingdom back technologically to the early 20th century.

Second, and most importantly for Russia’s military strategy, such sabotage would critically hinder the exchange of information among NATO countries. The United Kingdom is a key partner of the United States in obtaining intelligence data from satellites.

Journalist Oleksiy Dushka on Russia’s plans: video

American spacecraft are capable of monitoring specific targets on the ground 24 hours a day in real time – no other system in the world, except perhaps China’s, is capable of this.

If undersea communications are cut off, the transmission of this critical data would revert to “pigeon post,” effectively leaving the Alliance blind. It is precisely after such an information blackout that a kinetic strike against the Baltic states would become a much more realistic scenario.

Fear of the Ukrainian Army and the Elites’ Expectations

Threats against Europe are being made against the backdrop of Putin’s obvious fear of the strengthening of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The dictator understands that his time is limited: age is taking its toll, and his original plan to seize Ukraine and advance to the borders of Moldova has suffered a crushing defeat. The Russian army has “bit off more than it can chew,” and all members of the Russian establishment are well aware of this.

The Russian elite are waiting for the moment when Putin finally weakens, either physically or politically. The dictator fears that at that very moment, Ukraine – with its strong, well-equipped, and well-trained army – will be able to retake the occupied territories – Donbas, Luhansk Oblast, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia – by military means.

What is the current situation on the front lines: see the map

Holding these territories requires enormous resources, and in the event of an internal crisis in Russia, Russian troops simply won’t be able to hold their defenses. To raise a new generation of Russians blindly devoted to the ideas of the “Russian World,” Putin would need at least 20 years (as was the case with the denazification of Germany, which took three generations) – time he simply does not have.

Historical Manipulation as a Justification for Aggression

In order to somehow sell the “victory” domestically and retain power, Putin continues to demand recognition of the occupation of Donbas and other regions, referring to them as “historical Russia.” At the same time, Kremlin propaganda regularly finds itself in absurd situations.

A telling example is when Russian pseudo-historians presented Putin with an old map to prove that “Ukraine never existed,” but the map had “Ukraine” written on it in large letters in French.

The rhetoric about "historically Russian" landsThis argument does not stand up to any scrutiny, because if one delves into history, the Novgorod, Bryansk, or Rostov regions have no less reason to be considered historically linked to Ukraine.

Negotiations and a Trap for Trump

Aware of its own vulnerability, Moscow is trying to push for negotiations – Putin Says He Is Ready to Resume Dialogue, mediated by the U.S., as early as the beginning of November – demanding “security guarantees” for both sides.

This is a direct reaction to NATO’s expansion: American missiles could now be deployed in Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland, creating a sense of complete encirclement for the Kremlin.

At the same time, these negotiations are critically important for Donald Trump, whose approval ratings are plummeting on the eve of the election. Even influential Republicans, such as the Bush family, are turning their backs on him. Trump needs a quick foreign policy solution; otherwise, his campaign will collapse.

There is a serious risk that during the summit in November, Trump will attempt to strike a global deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the division of spheres of influence, using the Ukrainian issue as a bargaining chip with Russia behind Kyiv’s back.

Ukraine’s Position: Weapons Instead of Memoranda

Kyiv clearly articulates its red lines. Ukraine will not agree to recognize the occupation of its territories and will not accept yet another piece of paper like the “ The Budapest Memorandum,” whose guarantors have proven incapable of providing real protection.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists: any agreement must be voted on by the U.S. Congress to have ironclad legal force.

A powerful Ukrainian army must become the primary guarantee of security. Europe and the U.S. are obligated to ensure its quantitative and qualitative strengthening with clear funding. Moreover, Ukraine’s accession to NATO is beneficial even for Russia itself, as the Alliance operates under strict rules.

If these rules are violated, a member country simply loses funding and arms supplies – a far more reliable safeguard than any promises made outside the alliance. In the context of compliance with international rules, the contrast with Russia itself – which employs cynical schemes – is striking.

For example, Moscow organized so-called “humanitarian trains” from Iran, which in reality were used to transport “Shahed” attack drones, while components for them were shipped in the opposite direction.

Journalist Oleksiy Dushka believes that the coming month promises to be extremely difficult for the entire world. Prices for fuel and basic foodstuffs are expected to rise.

For Ukraine, November will likely bring an intensification of Russian terror: new ballistic missile attacks on energy infrastructure and civilian targets (such as construction supply stores), which Russian propaganda will cynically continue to refer to as “NATO bases.”