Russia is trying to conceal the extent of its own losses, and its hybrid attacks pose an increasing threat to European countries. At the same time, the Kremlin continues to mislead the Americans in negotiations, and Elon Musk’s influence on Ukraine’s satellite communications could become a serious problem for the front lines.
In an exclusive interview with 24 Channel, military expert Serhiy Roz analyzed the consequences of the hack on the Rosstat database, explained what is happening with the Russian army’s actual losses, and revealed how Musk could influence the operation of Starshield in Ukraine.
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Putin’s “Peace” and Russia’s Lies at the Negotiations
At a meeting with Trump’s envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, Russian dictator Putin said he wants there to always be peace in Ukraine. What do you think? I can’t just let that statement slide. Did he just mix up his words and mean war instead?
He really is seeking peace – just peace on his own terms. As you know, his terms are quite simple: to seize five regions of Ukraine, which he has enshrined in his constitution, and then install a regime friendly to him in the rest of Ukraine.
Something like the Byelorussian SSR, where his regime is currently quite satisfied with the situation. And it’s clear that it poses no threat whatsoever to him – in fact, it’s essentially his satellite or servant.
That’s why he wants the same thing in Ukraine. And it’s entirely logical that in such a case, there would be peace. It’s just that in that case, there would be no Ukraine in its current form, and there would be no Ukrainian people in their current form. That’s what was hidden behind those words.
I’d also like to return to the negotiations that took place in Abu Dhabi. There’s an interesting point that Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned: that the Russian side lied to the Americans about settlements that were supposedly captured by Russia, but where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actually stationed. Why do you think, in this age of modern technology, the Russians continue to lie so blatantly to the Americans about this?
I think the reason is very simple: because they believe it themselves. It’s like what those who lived in the Soviet Union remember as “pripiski” – they even coined a special term for it.
So, I report a little more about my work to my boss, and he reports it higher up, and higher still. And eventually, Putin is told that his troops are five meters – or maybe five kilometers – from the city of Zaporizhzhia, for example. Or that they’ve taken Svyatogorsk and are conducting a mop-up operation there.
In other words, it’s a lie that gradually builds up throughout Putin’s entire hierarchy. And obviously, since they believe it themselves, they report it to the Americans as well. So I think they’re lying completely sincerely.
Full interview with a military expert: watch the video
The Rosstat Hack and the Russian Army’s Actual Casualties
Hackers recently gained access to Rosstat’s restricted registries, which record approximately 400,000 Russian military fatalities. At the same time, the lists do not include casualties from the occupied territories, and the registration of deaths in Russia is delayed by at least four months. Why did this massive leak happen right now?
They hacked it as soon as they were able to. It’s clear that hacking various systems is easier now, since artificial intelligence has started to assist in this. If used correctly, it can hack virtually any system. That’s why I think there will be many more such cases.
And data released following this hack is actually nothing new for those who are familiar with this topic and engage in such calculations. We’ve already obtained similar figures through other methods on multiple occasions.
For example, we analyzed obituaries in open sources and then, by checking cemeteries and memorials, counted how many victims we were able to identify by name. The BBC and Mediazona, in particular, are engaged in this work.
There is also a Ukrainian group called “Goryushko” that conducts such tallies. Previously, we were able to identify the names of approximately 250,000 Russians. If we assume that only half of the dead can be found this way, we arrive at the same figure of 500,000 indicated by the data from the hacked database.
Therefore, in my opinion, nothing fundamentally new has happened. We’ve simply received yet another confirmation that our estimates were correct.
It’s also interesting that the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff match these numbers quite closely. It turns out that, oddly enough, militaries around the world are used to lying, while the Ukrainian General Staff, for some reason, provides accurate data that can be relied upon.
According to statistics from a hacked Rosstat database, among young men aged 18 to 29, the war accounted for nearly two-thirds of all deaths in Russia. Among 50-year-olds, the proportion increased 16-fold. At the same time, regional budgets are already cutting contract payments. How will this data affect Putin, and will he have to resort to unpopular coercive measures as early as this winter?
In reality, he couldn’t care less – not only about the people of Ukraine, but also about his own citizens. He himself said: “Better this way than from vodka and colds.”
In other words, he looks at it this way: in some region, 50-year-old men have died off. Indeed, there are regions where Russia is suffering very serious losses. So what? It’s better than dying from vodka and colds.
Young people? Not a problem either. They’ll be remembered, he says, for having performed a heroic deed. We’ll have new veterans, since the old ones are all gone. Who should we honor? Who should we decorate with ribbons?
In other words, he’s completely unfazed by this. I don’t think anything will change. The only thing is that he’ll be short on manpower now. After all, as we know, casualties are rising at an alarming rate.
And we just discussed that the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff can be trusted. According to the General Staff, Russia is constantly suffering new losses, while the Unmanned Systems Forces are setting new records. In other words, Russian losses are rising, but the recruitment of personnel isn’t keeping up.
By the way, according to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian army’s losses already exceed the rate of contract soldier recruitment. Specifically, from January to July 2026, Russia lost about 240,000 troops, while fewer than 232,000 people signed contracts. Because of this, the Kremlin is even considering an additional wave of mobilization involving 600,000 people.
That’s why they’re now resorting to covert mobilization. People are simply being rounded up on the streets. They don’t even expect to end up at the military registration office in the evening, only to find themselves on the front lines the very next day. For now, that’s exactly how the situation looks.
I don’t think this will affect the big cities. There, they’ll try to prevent such incidents so as not to provoke discontent. But in small towns, go ahead – after all, no one there will take to the streets to protest.
If we recall the mobilization in 2022, mothers themselves brought their children to register. So it’s clear that under these circumstances, no one will take to the streets to protest the mobilization.
So I don’t think Putin will have to resort to any special measures right now. On the other hand, if he is indeed briefed on serious manpower shortages – especially if there is a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, which, admittedly, is unlikely to happen – then he may have to take such steps.
In Moscow, in the Kitay-Gorod district, young people complained on social media that they were being forced to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Some of those detained were minors, so this did not apply to them. Could this be preparation for a new mobilization, despite police statements that these were merely preventive measures?
They are now trying to take people to military registration offices at every opportunity and force them to sign documents. For them, this has become a routine practice.
As a reminder, on November 7 in central Moscow, security forces conducted a “large-scale raid” in the Kitay-Gorod district and detained over 200 young people, including minors. According to those detained, adults were offered the chance to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense while in police vans, and at police stations, they were handed summonses to military registration offices – even students with deferments. The Ministry of Internal Affairs called the raid “preventive measures.”
But what interests me most in this situation is the reaction of the Russians themselves. If you recall, the Maidan began with the refusal to sign the agreement on European integration. However, the key point was that people were outraged when students – essentially children – were forcibly dispersed. Back then, everyone took to the streets to protest against the government and Yanukovych.
Now let’s look at what’s happening in Russia. Nothing at all. On the contrary, people are leaving comments on my posts saying: “Well, yes, that’s right – order needs to be restored. They’re drinking and swearing over there. Of course, they need to be drafted into the army immediately.”
I read this and think: guys, but these are children – your children. I imagine what it would be like if my child were beaten by local authorities and forcibly dragged to the military recruitment office. My reaction definitely wouldn’t be: “Well, that’s right – I still have a daughter and a son, so fine, take him.” That wouldn’t happen.
That’s why the Russians’ reaction here is far more interesting than the detentions themselves. And it’s quite obvious that such incidents will keep happening. When young people are being screened, or when concerts or other events are held, representatives from the military registration and enlistment offices often show up and immediately try to hand out draft notices.
However, this primarily concerns conscription for active duty. And even there, conscripts are already under pressure: authorities are trying to forcibly transfer them to contract service and then send them to war.
Strikes Against Drone Operators and Launch Sites
The Ukrainian military is increasingly trying to destroy not only Russian drones, but also their operators and launch sites. In other words, they’re striking not only at the consequences but also at the cause. This is especially true for the “Rubicon” unit. Could eliminating the operators seriously weaken Russian drone forces?
I pay more attention not even to the destruction of drones, but to the destruction of launchers – for example, Iskander missiles. From time to time, news emerges about the destruction of yet another such launcher.
To what extent can Russia compensate for these losses? Of course, they’re manufacturing new launchers, but at what rate? We know, for example, that Russia has serious problems with its air defense systems. Ukraine is destroying far more launchers than Russia can produce.
If they don’t have launchers, the missiles become useless. How are they supposed to be launched?
The situation is the same with drones. Ukraine is trying to strike both warehouses and other targets. But so far, unfortunately, there have been no major successes. There are instances where strikes are reported on locations where Russian drone operators were stationed. However, there is no clear evidence, and we do not see a noticeable decrease in the number of Russian drone attacks.
Although, for example, during Operation "Vivaldi", it was reported that Russian drone operators were forced to retreat from a certain area because they were being deliberately hunted down. Thanks to this, Ukraine, in particular, was able to gain an advantage in the so-called “low sky” – that is, at the altitude at which drones fly.
If we can achieve such results again and again, that would be wonderful. But I doubt it will be that easy to accomplish.
Is it known how long it will take Russia to replace the destroyed or damaged launchers? Could it be a month, two months, or half a year?
No, unfortunately, there is no such information, since we have no data on production volumes. For example, regarding tanks or certain air defense systems, some information is available, though not for all systems.
Specifically, there is data on the “Pantsir” and S-400 systems. It is known that Russia is unable to produce enough to compensate for the number of systems that Ukraine is managing to destroy.
As for “Iskander” launchers, however, we do not have such information. But logic suggests that at this rate, they should not be able to make up for their losses. Although I do not know how difficult it is to manufacture them. Perhaps they are, after all, capable of manufacturing the launchers themselves in sufficient quantities to make up for their losses.
Trump’s Signals on Ukraine’s Borders
Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump gave a high-profile interview to the American program “60 Minutes,” in which he stated outright that, under the terms of any future agreement for Ukraine, Kyiv would have to accept completely different borders for its country. How do you interpret this particular signal from the U.S.? What other borders is he referring to? Is Trump hinting at a freeze along the current front line?
Indeed, Trump believes – first of all, Trump is absolutely certain that Russia is successfully advancing and that every day, every week, they are seizing more and more territory. And if that’s the case, why not meet them halfway and make peace with them?
Because, in any case, all these territories will be lost sooner or later. In other words, no one is telling him that Russia is currently experiencing what is known as a “negative territorial gain.”
And so he thinks – well, his logic is quite understandable. On the other hand, Ukraine, through Zelenskyy, has agreed to end the war. That is, it’s not a peace treaty, but at least a freeze on the war along the current front line.
Admittedly, it’s unclear where exactly the front line runs, because, as we know, the Russian front line is somewhere deep in the Ukrainian rear, but they’ve agreed to this.
On the other hand, we know that Russia, as before, is demanding a full five Ukrainian regions. And that means they’re demanding not only, say, the Luhansk region, where they lack control over just two villages.
All right, that’s understandable. They’re demanding Donetsk, where they actually have several large cities that they simply cannot take. But they’re even demanding Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
They’ve never even been to Zaporizhzhia. While Kherson was at least once occupied, they’ve never even set foot in Zaporizhzhia, and yet they’re still claiming that territory for themselves. And that’s exactly what Putin is saying today, in my opinion – confirmed – that he agrees to the state border, and by “state border” he means one that includes these occupied regions.
The Russian equivalent of Starlink and Starshield malfunctions
Information has surfaced online and in specialized communities that Russian occupiers are testing a new system called “Rassvet” in Ukraine – a counterpart to Starlink. How serious a threat does it pose to our positions on the front lines, and how can the Defense Forces counter it?
This will indeed be a serious threat. But looking back, the Russians have been using Starlink for quite some time. In particular, they installed terminals on drones and used them to attack Ukrainian targets. Now they are developing their own system, which could be called the Russian Starlink.
Incidentally, Russia is deploying its own "Rassvet" satellite communications system, which is referred to as the equivalent of Starlink. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Moscow plans to expand its constellation to 292 satellites by 2027 and to nearly 1,000 by 2035. Currently, the system only works when the satellites are flying over a specific area.
So far, they have managed to launch satellites. Reports indicate that some of them fail to reach the intended orbits or arrive there with a delay. But that isn’t all that important. As long as they can launch new satellites and those satellites reach the intended orbits one way or another, we can say that everything is fine for them.
Currently, these satellites aren’t constantly over Ukraine. However, there are certain periods when it’s possible to establish communication with them. I don’t know how many terminals the Russians have, how cheap they are, or what kind of signal strength they provide.
In other words, I have no information on how this system compares to Starlink. It’s very difficult to jam the operation of such terminals on the ground. We see that the Russians are trying to jam Starlink, but they aren’t succeeding either. Therefore, it’s unlikely that Ukraine will be able to reliably jam the Russian system.
The only correct solution is to target the factories that manufacture these systems and satellites, as well as the launch pads and facilities used to launch space rockets. In other words, we must do everything possible to hinder the development of the Russian space program.
After all, in addition to its own corruption, Russia faces additional problems in the space sector due to Ukraine. But this is likely the main course of action. Sooner or later, they will still be able to launch this system.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that after the conclusion of the talks in Abu Dhabi and Kushner and Witkoff’s departure for Moscow, large-scale disruptions in Starshield’s operations were again detected over Ukraine. At critical moments, the loss of communication and coordination puts the lives of military personnel and the conduct of operations at risk. Could this be coordinated pressure from certain circles in Washington to force Kyiv to make concessions?
You know, I have my own theory about this. I believe Musk himself might be behind it. He once admitted that he consumes Russian propaganda in large quantities. In particular, he watches or reads Russia Today – I’m not sure in which format.
It’s clear that Musk is actively spreading various anti-Ukrainian posts on his social media platform. I have a feeling that he’s the one creating this pressure, including on Trump himself. They used to be quite close, and in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, Musk wrote extensively about how Ukraine is bad, how Zelenskyy needs to be removed, and how Russia is supposedly doing nothing wrong.
It seems to me that Trump simply adopted many of these arguments from Musk. And what happens? At some point, Musk can’t take it anymore, goes to his office, and just flips a switch there. And Ukraine is once again left without Starlink and Starshield.
By the way, if you recall, Rubio even claimed that Ukraine doesn’t have Starshield. The Ukrainian military responds that we do have this system. But it doesn’t matter.
In my opinion, Musk is genuinely trying, through his behavior, to force Ukraine to the negotiating table and agree to cede its own territories for the sake of peace with Russia. Perhaps he’s doing this with Trump’s approval. After all, Musk is genuinely convinced that Russia is on the offensive, Ukraine is dragging out the war, and Zelenskyy is doing this personally because he’s afraid of the elections.
The argument goes that as soon as the war ends, he’ll be re-elected immediately, since his approval rating is supposedly 4 percent. This was also a well-known manipulation by Russian propaganda. That’s why I think all of this is linked precisely to this view of the situation. In other words, Musk, Trump, or Hegseth – someone from this “golden trio” – is trying to influence Ukraine in this way.
The U.S., the Elections, and Prospects for Aid to Ukraine
If the Republicans suffer a crushing defeat in the U.S. midterm elections or Trump loses political ground, how might that affect the situation on the front lines and the position of the Russian army?
As far as I know, there has been no direct military aid to Russia from the Republican Party so far. I hope there won’t be any. At the same time, there are rumors that Democrats have already begun discussing the need to unfreeze aid programs and send Ukraine what was prepaid or allocated by certain funds. In other words, the money was allocated, but Ukraine received nothing.
Now they’re proposing to at least send what’s already been paid for. Also, it’s alleged that Hegseth didn’t sign certain documents for several months, which is why Ukraine couldn’t receive the aid. But these are just rumors. I’m not in Washington, so it’s hard for me to say what’s actually going on there.
It seems to me that the Democrats are, after all, more sympathetic toward Ukraine. Although this is quite surprising, since the Republican Party has traditionally taken a tougher stance on foreign policy. And now it turns out that we have to pin our hopes on the Democrats. What a turn of events.
I really hope that, one way or another, U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be resumed. After all, if you look at Europe, the situation there is also becoming increasingly unstable.
It may happen that European aid will no longer be sufficient. I hope they won’t cut it off entirely. But we’re seeing Le Pen’s support grow in France, and in Germany, the AfD is now one of the most popular – if not the most popular – parties.
Therefore, very serious political changes could take place in Europe that will affect aid to Ukraine. This aid is needed both to continue the war and to support the Ukrainian economy. The situation is quite troubling. So, unfortunately, we can only hope for the democrats.
Russia’s Hybrid Attacks in Europe
Speaking of Europe, European intelligence agencies are investigating a wave of anonymous reports of bombs planted on passenger planes. No final conclusions have been reached yet, but Western intelligence circles consider Russia to be the main organizer of this hybrid campaign. Why is the Kremlin bringing terror to European airspace right now? Does it want to intimidate the public so that people will vote for political forces such as the AfD in Germany or Le Pen’s party in France?
Yes, without a doubt, that is their plan. There are political forces that – whether for money or for free – advocate for friendship with Russia, an end to aid for Ukraine, and a return to so-called normality. They argue that we should buy Russian energy resources again, live well, and not pay so much for utilities.
Here, for example, rent has gone up significantly. In some places, cutting off Russian gas has nearly doubled heating costs. And yet these people say: “What do we care about those Ukrainians? What are they doing over there? Let’s be friends with Russia again.” I’m from Latvia, and we have a few parties like that, too.
Elections were held recently, and two of them made it into parliament. One openly declares its support for Russia. The other tries not to speak about it directly but emphasizes the need to pursue what is in Latvia’s best interest.
And when they talk about what’s in the country’s best interest, they mean, in particular, resuming trade with Russia. It is through such terrorist attacks – whether small-scale or large-scale – and other issues that Russia constantly pushes Europeans toward the idea that they should be friends with Russia and avoid conflict.
As for the threats of bombs on airplanes, there is, of course, another version of the story. For example, in the case of European refrigerators that overheated and reached abnormally high temperatures, an Iranian connection was allegedly discovered in the end. So something similar could be happening with the airplanes. But I don’t rule out that Russia is behind this. So we’ll keep an eye on how things unfold. In any case, this is an attempt to put pressure on European voters.
Oleshky, “humanitarian pauses,” and pressure over Kostiantynivka
Finally, I’d like to ask you about Oleshky. What was the point of this whole operation? Was it to mobilize and reinforce Russian troops? While Melania Trump was carrying out a humanitarian mission and helping to free people whom the Russians had effectively starved to death by denying them access to food, medicine, and water, Russia simply moved troops into the area. Are we understanding the situation correctly?
Yes, without a doubt. But, to be honest, the Ukrainian side probably took advantage of this as well. I read on Russian Z-channels that we, too, were given this opportunity and are now moving in weapons and strengthening our positions. In other words, neither side attacked the other, and it’s clear that both took advantage of this lull.
But it’s not worth saying that the Russians are planning some kind of major offensive there. They can’t launch a large-scale offensive from Oleshky. After all, the Dnipro River is there, and such attempts have already been made. We know they never end well. It’s simply impossible to ensure the logistics.
What’s left? Perhaps only to reinforce the positions of drone operators there, who will attack Kherson itself. Yes, that’s entirely possible. But sooner or later, Ukraine will find them too, and the situation will return to the way it was before. After all, there won’t be any new supplies, since the ceasefire has ended. But it’s good that they managed to save people. That’s a positive development.
It seems to me that Melania Trump was sincere in this case. Despite the fact that her husband seems willing to do anything for money, she, in my opinion, behaved quite sincerely. But we’ll see.
Meanwhile, Putin made a completely bizarre statement. It seems that just today he proposed repeating a similar operation in Kostiantynivka. At the same time, he’s absolutely certain that he has complete control over the city. In reality, fighting is still going on there, and part of the city is under Ukrainian control. So it’s completely unclear how he plans to organize a ceasefire there to evacuate civilians.
But this may be his way of putting pressure on the Americans, particularly on Melania Trump. As if to say, “I’m a peacemaker; look, I’m proposing initiatives like this.” At least, that’s how I see it.
And what does this pressure consist of? He positions himself as a peacemaker, but a significant part of Kostiantynivka is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
That is precisely where the pressure lies. He declares, “I am a peacemaker.” The Ukrainian side will respond, “But we control half the city.
We can’t just agree to such a strange ceasefire, under which you claim the city is yours, and therefore you’ll be able to move about freely, and no one will be allowed to shoot at you.” And then the Russians will say: “See, they don’t want peace. I want peace, but they refuse.”
This interview has been condensed, corrected, and edited for better understanding by the audience.
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