Behind the talk of ending the war may lie a much larger plan, the consequences of which will be felt throughout Europe. The Kremlin seeks not only to extract territorial concessions from Ukraine but also to weaken NATO so that it can dictate its own security rules on the continent.
Journalist and psychologist Larisa Voloshina, in an interviewwith 24 Channel , explained why Putin specifically needs a peace agreement, how Donald Trump’s interests could play into the Kremlin’s hands, and how Ukraine can thwart Moscow’s dangerous scenario.
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The Difference Between a Ceasefire and a Peace Agreement
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, during meetings at the Kremlin clearly articulated his demands:, maintains that there is no demarcation line for him; instead, a new state border must be established between Russia and Ukraine. He demands that Russia recognize Crimea, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as part of its territory, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from those territories that Russia does not control.
As Larisa Voloshina notes, statements by some Ukrainian politicians regarding the possibility of concluding a “peace agreement” before the New Year are playing into the Kremlin's hands due to a misunderstanding of international law. A peace agreement is a document that brings the war to an end and establishes new borders (what Putin calls “new territorial realities”). Once signed, the war is considered legally over.
A ceasefire, on the other hand, merely means a halt to hostilities. In such a case:
* The demarcation line remains, and troops or peacekeeping contingents must be stationed along it.
* There is no legal recognition of the annexed territories.
* Sanctions remain in effect for decades until territorial integrity is restored.
Full interview with Voloshina: watch the video
Russia’s Economic Noose
Russia desperately needs a respite and the lifting of restrictions due to the rapid deterioration of its economic situation. According to leaked data from Rosstat’s confidential statistics, the aggressor nation is suffering colossal losses:
- The decline in the agricultural sector amounts to 16% over the course of a month (comparing August and September, when the harvest traditionally takes place and figures should be rising).
- Oil revenues to the state budget have fallen by 20% compared to last year, despite the fact that the price of Russian oil has risen from $40 to $100.
- Grain exports from Novorossiysk have plummeted from 4 million metric tons to barely 4 metric tons per day.
A simple ceasefire will not save the Russian economy. Without the lifting of sanctions, Russia risks becoming a “giant North Korea” and beginning to collapse over the next ten years due to its inability to maintain its army along the line of contact and the absence of foreign trade.
Why Trump’s interests align with Putin’s plans
Donald Trump is also interested specifically in a peace agreementrather than in freezing the conflict. His motivation lies in financial considerations and the desire to attract investment. Under U.S. law, sanctions imposed for the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war can be lifted only when the reasons for their imposition no longer exist.
To lift the restrictions, the U.S. president must go before Congress and declare that the war is over. And under international law, a war ends exclusively through the conclusion of a peace treaty. Therefore, Trump needs a document between Ukraine and Russia that will formalize the new borders. If Ukraine itself acknowledges the loss of territory, Trump will gain the legal right to recognize these “new realities” and lift the sanctions.
Russia’s Attempt to Replace NATO in Europe
Putin and Trump are trying to blackmail Europe. Russia is proposing to create a new “Russia–NATO” framework, where it would act as the guarantor of security instead of the U.S. The Kremlin is proposing that European countries sign bilateral treaties (similar to the agreement between Russia and Iran), the essence of which is that if one country is attacked, the other will not aid its enemy.
Incidentally, "Russia–NATO" Council could become anew platform for discussing security in Europe. This idea is being considered by U.S. President’s Special Representative Jared Kushner, who proposes using this format for broader negotiations between Moscow and European countries on the future security architecture.
This is a direct attempt to destroy European unity, dismantle NATO from within, and sideline Ukraine as the continent’s primary guarantor of security.
At the same time, Russia is stepping up its networks of influence within Ukraine, which masquerade as “pro-American” or “pro-Chinese” forces. Their goal is to sow despair and convince Ukrainians that Europe is supposedly “waging war through us” and has no intention of supporting us.
The European Safety Net and the Failure of the Russian Lobby
Despite fears that center-right or outright populist parties (such as Marine Le Pen in France or “Alternative for Germany”) might come to power in Europe, the European bureaucracy has created a reliable mechanism to prevent the rapid lifting of sanctions.
The European Union has adopted the “consolidated decision ”: as of January 1, 2027, all Russian gas and oil supplies (via pipelines or tankers) will be completely halted, and the import of petroleum products manufactured from Russian raw materials in third countries will be prohibited. To lift these sanctions, a unanimous vote by all 27 EU member states is required. Even if, hypothetically, Le Pen or Sarah Wagenknecht wanted to bring back Russian gas, the Baltic states would never vote for it.
The only way for an individual country to circumvent these sanctions is to leave the European Union. However, major local corporations (such as France’s Renault or Germany’s Rheinmetall, Mercedes, and Porsche) will never allow the single European market to be destroyed for the sake of Gazprom’s interests.
How Ukraine Can Seize the Initiative
Ukraine now has a unique window of opportunity to, together with its European partners, corner the Trump administration by leveraging U.S. legislation. This refers to the so-called “Crimea Declaration” (the Pompeo Declaration) from 2018, which Trump himself signed. This document prohibits the U.S. president from recognizing Ukrainian territories as Russian and from pressuring Ukraine to relinquish them.
Instead of agreeing to the vague wording of Trump’s envoys regarding “minor territorial concessions,” Kyiv must publicly demand that they explain Putin’s ultimatum. Trump must be forced to answer openly whether he supports the Kremlin’s demand to cede five Ukrainian regions and establish a new state border there.
If Trump publicly supports these demands, he will violate U.S. law, which could lead to new criminal investigations – something he fears most. On the eve of the congressional hearings, he will have to justify himself and prove that he is not forcing Ukraine to capitulate. This will make it possible to overturn the negotiating table and derail the scenario of a forced peace agreement.
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