Russia has drafted a bill that could change the rules governing the use of pension savings for 71 million citizens. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to strike at Russian oil infrastructure, and the Kremlin is seeking additional ways to finance government spending, a significant portion of which is directed toward the war.
Political strategist Boris Tizengausen, in an opinion piece published by 24 Channel, explained how Russia could use 6.5 trillion rubles in pension savings and why this poses risks for Russians themselves. He also analyzed the consequences of Ukrainian strikes, the U.S. proposal to resume Russian gas transit, suspicious ship activity in the Baltic Sea, and the controversy surrounding Russia’s return to international sports.
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Ukrainian drones attacked a major oil hub
Ukraine continues to strike at Russian oil infrastructure, focusing not only on oil refineries but also on facilities critical to the transportation of crude oil. One of the latest targets was the “Samara” linear production and dispatch station near the village of Prosvit in the Samara region.
Following a nighttime attack, local residents reported seeing thick black smoke rising from the direction of the station. The region’s governor, Vyacheslav Fedoryshchev, reported only that the drone attack had been repelled and urged Russians not to film or share videos, warning of possible legal consequences.
Tizengausen highlighted the strategic importance of the targeted facility. The station is part of the Russian company “Transneft” and features a large tank farm used for storing and subsequently pumping oil.
There are 71 massive storage tanks there with a total capacity of 1.5 million cubic meters. But this station is also important because it is where four major oil pipelines converge
Oil flows to this hub from Western Siberia, Tatarstan, the Orenburg region, and Kazakhstan. From there, it is transported via pipelines to oil refineries and for export.
According to the political strategist, this is already the fifth attack on the station in the last 30 days. During previous attacks, he claims, four RVS-50000-type storage tanks were damaged, each of which is designed to hold 50,000 cubic meters of oil.
Tizengausen emphasized that strikes on such facilities can create problems for several sectors of the Russian oil industry at once. If the storage or pumping system is damaged, even enterprises that were not directly targeted by the attack may feel the consequences.
In three days, Ukraine has taken out about 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. That’s quite a pace!
According to the data he cited, the Kstovo and Novokuybyshevsk oil refineries, as well as the “Bashneft-Novoyl” facility and other industry sites, were attacked during this period. He estimated the combined capacity of the four mentioned enterprises at approximately 33 million metric tons of oil per year.
The damage, he said, affected both primary and secondary refining units. This means that resuming operations at these facilities may depend not only on repairing individual pieces of equipment but also on restoring technological processes between different production lines.
Russian military losses have reached new highs
Alongside the blows to its industry, Russia continues to suffer significant losses on the front lines. Tizengausen cited data showing that October was one of the hardest months for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.
In particular, he said that on October 21, 2,250 personnel casualties were recorded in a single day. The political strategist emphasized that this figure includes both the dead and the wounded, not just those killed in action.
Nearly 54,500 Russians killed and wounded in a single month. Simply because Putin wants to continue this war
He also claimed that throughout October, the Ukrainian military liberated more territory than the Russian occupiers were able to seize. In his view, the Russian army’s heavy losses are not accompanied by corresponding territorial gains.
As early as November 1, according to data cited by the political strategist, Russia’s daily casualties reached 2,500 soldiers. He called this figure a new high since the start of the full-scale war.
Separately, Tizengausen drew attention to reports from Russian regions regarding the burial of fallen occupiers. He mentioned a video in which the authors claimed that soldiers were being buried in different sections of cemeteries to avoid large clusters of graves marked with Russian flags.
The political strategist suggested that local authorities might be attempting to make the scale of the losses less noticeable to the public. At the same time, he emphasized that the Russian leadership is continuing the war despite its human cost.
The arrest of a teenager in Moscow raised new questions
Following reports of heavy Russian losses, Tizengausen referred to a previous incident in which the U.S. side had warned of a possible terrorist attack in Moscow. The threat was in the area of Tsaritsyno Park, following which the U.S. Embassy advised its citizens to avoid large crowds.
The political strategist recalled a similar warning that the Americans had issued before the attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue. This time, following the U.S. report, Russia’s FSB announced the detention of a teenager suspected of planning violent acts.
According to the Russian security service, the teenager had posted photos on TikTok wearing tactical clothing and a balaclava, along with an object resembling an automatic weapon. Among his posts were photos from Tsaritsyno Park with the caption “I found the spot.”
The FSB also claimed that the teenager was subscribed to a neo-Nazi Telegram channel and was interested in information about mass killings and terrorist acts. However, the details of the released materials raised doubts in Tizengausen’s mind regarding the version of events presented.
The object resembling an automatic weapon turned out to be an airsoft rifle that fires plastic pellets. “I don’t understand why they detained this teenager then
He drew particular attention to the video of the arrest released by the FSB. According to Tizengausen, one of the teenager’s patches featured a “val’knut” – a symbol consisting of three intertwined triangles.
This symbol is used, in particular, by members of the Russian neo-Nazi group DShRG “Rusich,” which is participating in the war against Ukraine. The political strategist mentioned one of its members, Yan Petrovsky, who was convicted in Finland.
It is precisely this detail, in Tizengausen’s view, that does not align with the attempt to portray a potential threat as the activity of forces linked to Ukraine.
“I very much doubt that the Americans warned the FSB specifically about this schoolboy. Most likely, it was a preemptive warning to the Russian side,”
Tizengausen suggested that the American warning might have concerned the risk of another provocation and drew parallels with the apartment building bombings in Russia in the late 1990s. He suggested that Russian intelligence agencies might be interested in using such an incident to justify new strikes against Ukraine.
At the same time, this is merely a political analyst’s speculation, not established facts of the case. The mere fact that a teenager was detained does not provide grounds to claim that the FSB was planning a terrorist attack, and the reasons behind the U.S. warning remain a separate issue.
The U.S. Proposes Restoring Russian Gas Supplies to Europe
Another area of contact between Washington and Moscow has been potential energy agreements. According to The Wall Street Journal, as cited by Tizengausen, the U.S. has proposed considering the resumption of Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukrainian territory.
Representatives of the Donald Trump administration, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, discussed this idea back in September. The proposal involved bringing in an American intermediary through whom Russian gas supplies would be routed.
Washington was considering such a mechanism in connection with a possible energy truce. However, Tizengausen questioned the very idea of linking a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure with the resumption of trade relations with Russia.
“I don’t understand how this can even be called a ceasefire. If they stop striking industrial facilities but continue to strike residential buildings, what kind of ceasefire are we talking about?”
In his assessment, the American mediator could profit from reselling the gas. For Russia, the main benefit would be a gradual return to the European energy market and the opportunity to mitigate the impact of economic sanctions.
At the same time, the proposed scheme called for a special account into which proceeds from the sale of Russian gas would be deposited. According to the American side’s plan, this would prevent the use of those revenues directly to finance the war.
Tizengausen believes that such a mechanism does not guarantee a real limit on the Kremlin’s military spending. In his view, the ability to redirect new revenues toward civilian needs would simultaneously free up other budgetary resources.
“They’ll transfer the money to a special account and use it, for example, to plug a hole in healthcare spending. They’ll say, ‘See, this isn’t a war.’ And the funds that previously went to healthcare will be redirected to the war,”
European governments, he said, oppose the resumption of such energy cooperation. The EU plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027, so resuming transit through Ukraine would contradict the chosen direction of energy policy.
Tizengausen emphasized that Moscow continues to seek ways to generate revenue from resource exports, despite sanctions and restrictions. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration must simultaneously address its own foreign policy challenges, particularly those related to Iran.
Trump Seeks Those Responsible for the Iran Crisis
As the war with Iran drags on, Donald Trump has begun to take an interest in the work of his military leadership. According to a report by The Atlantic, cited by Tizengausen, the U.S. president has been questioning his advisers about the activities of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane.
The political strategist suggested that Trump may be looking for officials on whom he can conveniently pin the blame for the course of the military campaign. Commenting on the president’s behavior, he ironically mentioned other countries that had previously been the targets of his public criticism.
“Ukraine is always to blame. Maybe Canada? Greenland? Or Norway, which didn’t give him the Nobel Peace Prize?”
According to the political strategist, the focus on Hegseth did not arise by chance. His activities have already raised questions in American political circles, which is why, in Tizengausen’s view, he may find himself under the most intense pressure.
At the same time, the decision on possible personnel changes rests with the U.S. president. Tizengausen did not provide any evidence that the decision to fire Hegseth had already been made, but he did not rule out increased criticism directed at him.
The Kremlin is preparing to transfer Russians’ pension savings
The Russian Ministry of Finance has drafted a bill that would transfer citizens’ pension savings to a long-term savings program. According to information provided by Tizengausen, the potential changes would affect approximately 71 million Russians.
He estimated the total amount of funds in question at 6.5 trillion rubles. The political strategist noted that the proposed model does not require obtaining the individual consent of the account holders for the transfer of their savings.
For now, the money is not being openly taken away from Russians. It is being transferred to another program, with different rules, but without the consent of the Russians themselves. They are simply being presented with a fait accompli
He emphasized that this involves a change in the mechanism for managing the savings, rather than the actual withdrawal of money from citizens’ accounts. However, it is precisely the new rules that will determine how the state can use these funds and under what conditions they will be available to the account holders.
According to the political strategist, the Russian authorities view pension savings as an additional source of revenue for the budget. One possible mechanism involves investing these funds in government bonds.
In effect, this would allow the state to draw on citizens’ money to finance its own expenditures. At the same time, the question arises as to what specific needs the Russian authorities will allocate the resources obtained through this mechanism toward.
Essentially, they want to use this money to plug holes in the budget right now. Through bonds, they would extend credit to the state and thus finance the military budget – that is, the war
The political strategist linked the possible change in pension savings rules to the overall state of Russian finances. In his assessment, the protracted war is placing increasing pressure on the budget, and the Kremlin is forced to seek additional sources of funding.
He also noted that Putin had previously called for more active use of the population’s financial resources. Tizengausen views the current initiative by the Ministry of Finance as a continuation of this approach.
At the same time, the proposed changes create uncertainty for the savers themselves. After all, transferring funds to another program will mean the application of new rules over which citizens, under the described scheme, will have no direct influence.
Tizengausen drew a parallel with the experience of the Soviet Union’s collapse, when the savings of millions of people were devalued due to the economic crisis and inflation. People who had been saving money for years for major purchases lost a significant portion of their purchasing power.
Fans of the Soviet Union surely remember how, in an instant, the savings people had accumulated over their entire lives lost their value. Some had been saving for a car; others, for a refrigerator. And in a short time, those savings were wiped out by hyperinflation
He did not rule out that further financial difficulties could prompt the Russian authorities to make new decisions regarding the population’s funds. However, the current discussion centers specifically on the proposed bill and the possible consequences of its implementation, rather than on a confirmed write-off of pension savings.
Sweden inspected a ship with a Russian crew
Russia’s problems are not limited to the economy and losses on the front lines. In the Baltic Sea, European law enforcement agencies are increasingly scrutinizing merchant ships that may be linked to intelligence operations.
According to the Swedish TV channel TV4, police and special forces officers boarded the dry cargo ship Germanica off the coast of Gotland during the night. Law enforcement officers checked the ship’s documents and interviewed the crew members.
Tizengausen explained that the interest in the vessel stemmed from suspicions regarding the activities of the shipping company that operates it.
“There is a suspicion that Russian intelligence is using this shipping company’s vessels as floating bases for launching drones,”
The Germanica is an 82-meter-long dry cargo ship built in 1984. It flies the flag of Antigua and Barbuda and is managed by the Norwegian company Haf Ship Management.
The company has a representative office in Kaliningrad, where crew members are recruited. According to TV4, the ship’s crew consisted of Russian citizens.
The investigation itself does not prove the Germanica’s involvement in intelligence activities. However, German intelligence agencies had previously taken note of the routes of other dry cargo ships in this shipping group.
In 2025, the movements of two such vessels coincided in time and location with the appearance of unidentified drones near German military facilities. And in September, German police searched the dry cargo ship Scanlark on suspicion of launching a reconnaissance drone that was photographing a German Navy vessel.
Tizengausen noted that such incidents pose a complex challenge for European law enforcement agencies. Merchant ships can legally operate near strategic facilities, so it is difficult to establish that a specific ship was used for reconnaissance without additional evidence.
Civilian ships may conceal the launch of drones
The scale of the appearance of unidentified drones in Europe has already been the subject of separate studies. According to Tizengausen, the British International Institute for Strategic Studies analyzed 144 suspicious incidents recorded since August 2024.
Drones were spotted near military bases in Germany and the United Kingdom, strategic sites in France, airports, ports, and energy infrastructure. Researchers considered the possibility that Russia might be using civilian vessels to launch some of these drones.
One of the cases cited by Tizengausen involved the Russian ship “Zhigulovsk.”
In February 2026, the Swedish military recorded the launch of a Russian drone from the ship “Zhigulovsk.” The drone appeared near the French aircraft carrier “Charles de Gaulle,” which was in Malmö
According to him, the Swedish military jammed the drone using electronic warfare equipment. He cited this incident as an example of how ordinary shipping can be used to bring reconnaissance assets close to military facilities.
Tizengausen also described a possible mechanism for such operations. A commercial dry cargo ship, officially carrying construction materials or other cargo, could sail near the target facility, after which several small drones would be launched from it.
The drones are capable of gathering information about military infrastructure and transmitting it to operators. After completing their mission, they do not necessarily return to the ship.
After receiving and transmitting the information, the drone can simply fall somewhere into the sea and sink. “Try to prove afterward that it actually came from the dry cargo ship,”
This method of using drones complicates the work of law enforcement, since by the time a suspicious vessel is inspected, the drones themselves may no longer be on board.
According to the political strategist, European countries will have to step up monitoring not only of Russian military ships but also of civilian vessels suspected of engaging in reconnaissance activities.
Russian military ships are far from the only threat. Civilian cargo ships, even those flying the flags of other countries, can also be used for such operations
Among possible measures, Tizengausen cited sanctions against companies whose involvement in espionage is proven, as well as stricter liability for the shipowners and crews involved, up to and including the confiscation of vessels.
He also suggested that European partners could draw on Ukraine’s experience in countering Russian drones and maritime threats.
Finland Opposes the Return of Russian Athletes to Sports
Alongside increased attention to Russian activities in the Baltic Sea, Finland has raised the issue of new restrictions on Russian athletes. Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen announced her intention to seek a ban on their entry into the European Union.
According to Tizengausen, the Finnish diplomat had already proposed in October that her EU counterparts consider similar restrictions for the Schengen Area. This involves the possibility of barring Russian athletes from international competitions held in European countries.
A new debate arose following the announcement of the Court of Arbitration for Sport’s decision on October 30, which, according to the political strategist, paved the way for Russian teams to participate in hockey tournaments during the 2026–2027 season.
Russian national teams were suspended from international competitions following the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The Finnish Ice Hockey Association called the possible return of the Russians an incomprehensible decision.
“If the ban was imposed because of the invasion of Ukraine, then what – has the reason disappeared? Have Russian troops been withdrawn from Ukraine? No. Has Putin started killing fewer people?”
He sharply criticized the idea of separating international sports from the war while the state continues its armed aggression against its neighbors. In his view, allowing Russian teams to compete without a change in the Kremlin’s policy could be perceived as Russia’s gradual return to the international community without ending the war.
Tizengausen drew a historical parallel with World War II, suggesting that one imagine Nazi Germany’s teams participating in international tournaments under their own flag while hostilities were ongoing. He used this comparison to explain his rejection of the argument that sports should remain apolitical under all circumstances.
According to him, five Finnish lawmakers also supported calls to impose new sanctions and visa restrictions that could prevent Russian hockey teams from returning to international tournaments.
The political strategist linked Finland’s position to its own historical experience. He recalled the Soviet invasion of the country in 1939 and the USSR’s attempt to quickly defeat an enemy that was significantly outnumbered.
The Finnish army was able to put up prolonged resistance, although the country lost some of its territory as a result of the war. At the same time, Finland retained its independence and statehood.
Tizengausen compared this experience to Ukraine’s struggle against the Russian invasion. He expressed hope that once Russian aggression ends, the issue of restoring territorial integrity will arise not only for Ukraine but also in the broader context of future changes in Russia and its relations with its neighbors.
Tizengausen on Russian intelligence in Europe: watch the video
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