Donald Trump’s negotiations with Russia create the illusion of rapid diplomatic progress, but despite the high-profile meetings, there are still no concrete solutions regarding territories, Ukraine’s security, or ending the war. Businessmen Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff have been brought into the process and are attempting to resolve geopolitical issues through commercial agreements. At the same time, their plans are running up against U.S. law, resistance from the states, and Congress’s stance.
Andriy Dobryansky, a representative of the U.S.-Ukraine Relations Center, explained to 24 Channel why the White House’s negotiation strategy is not yielding the expected results, whether Trump will be able to lift sanctions against Russia, and what might change for Ukraine after the U.S. elections. The expert also assessed the internal crisis within the U.S. administration, the prospects for military aid to Kyiv, and the risks of a protracted U.S.-Iran standoff.
popular videos
The Illusion of Progress: Why Businessmen Cannot Replace Diplomats
Negotiations in Abu Dhabi, attended by U.S. Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Stephen Witkoff, are being presented as a significant step forward; however, there has been no real diplomatic breakthrough regarding territories or security guarantees.
The main – and perhaps only – positive outcome of these meetings remains the agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange, which is the traditional minimum for such formats.
The problem lies in the lack of a professional diplomatic approach. The American side is represented by businesspeople who are attempting to apply commercial methods to complex geopolitics. Their previous experience – in particular, the summer agreements with Iran – has yielded no tangible results.
It is worth recalling that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were involvedprior to the U.S. negotiations with Iran, but the parties failed to reach any substantive agreements. Specifically, in February 2026, the negotiations in Geneva ended without an agreement being signed, despite statements about some progress. The parties were unable to overcome key differences regarding Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Moreover, Kushner and Witkoff’s positions are temporary, and it is already known that they do not plan to remain active in the federal government for long.
This creates a vacuum of expertise, where ad hoc business deals are proposed instead of systematic work.
Conversation with Dobryansky: watch the video
The Failure of the Diesel Deal and State Resistance
The situation with Russian diesel fuel has become a striking example of the clash between populism and actual legislation. The Trump administration touted the arrival of tankers in New York as a major victory that was supposed to drastically lower fuel prices for American farmers and the rest of the world. However,None of the tankers ever entered U.S. ports.
The reason lies in strong opposition at the state level and federal legislation. Governors, including the governor of New Jersey, warned companies of severe fines for violating the 2022 law, which blocks the purchase of Russian oil.
Meanwhile, in Congress – which is returning to work after the election campaign – bills are already being drafted (such as the Ronald Reagan Act) aimed at completely repealing this diesel deal and stripping the president of the authority to unilaterally circumvent sanctions.
A sanctions dead end for Russia.
Trump’s desire to trade with Russia and his intentions to force Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for the lifting of the 2014 sanctions face an insurmountable legal obstacle.
U.S. and European sanctions are strictly tied to the status of the occupied territories, and many legislative acts explicitly reference the 1991 borders.
It is impossible to lift these restrictions with the stroke of a pen.
This is where the incompetence of advisors like Steve Bannon or Kushner is most evident; they do not understand the mechanisms for amending federal legislation and view international sanctions as a mere contract that can be rewritten.
Amid political turbulence, Republicans whose careers are coming to an end are trying to leave a positive legacy. By the end of their term, they plan to release $400 million in aid approved last year and push through a new bill to support Ukraine for the next period.
Incidentally, the U.S.Congress allocated $$400 million in military aid for Ukraines as part of the 2026 defense budget. However, the Pentagon had long delayed the allocation of these funds, prompting senators from both parties to demand explanations from Defense Secretary Pete Hagset and call for the funding to be released as soon as possible. At the same time, Congress was advancing the Ukraine Support Act, which provides for new mechanisms of military support for Ukraine, including the extension of the USAI program and additional sanctions against Russia.
There is bipartisan agreement on the need to urgently provide Patriot systems and other weapons now, without waiting for a change in control of Congress.
Iran’s Blockade and Ignoring Domestic Problems
After the election, Trump’s rhetoric on the economy changed dramatically. Whereas he had previously promised an immediate drop in prices, that political pressure has now disappeared.
The president openly states that he is no longer concerned about the cost of Christmas gifts for ordinary Americans. This gives him free rein to impose a prolonged economic blockade on Iran instead of military strikes.
However, such a policy, which could last for months or years, will inevitably affect global price levels, causing serious concern among American political scientists and economists.
But the greatest challenge for the administration is internal division. Instead of seeking a compromise with the opposition, which won a historic victory in the elections, Trump is trying to establish a rigid power structure.
This has already led to mass firings at the Department of Justice due to fears of congressional investigations into corruption. Key figures, such as Pete Hagset, whose actions are undermining the future of the armed forces, are also at risk of being fired.
Since Trump is a president who cannot run for re-election, his administration is considered weak. Traditionally, under such circumstances, officials try to leave their posts as quickly as possible.
As early as next month, when the federal budget comes up for approval, Trump’s unwillingness to compromise could lead to a repeat of the 2018–2019 scenario – a massive government shutdown and paralysis.
If you find an error on this page, select it and press Ctrl + Enter