When might genuine peace talks to end the war begin?

Two sides have long been at odds within Putin:

1. He desperately wants to be like Peter the Great, the builder of an empire.

2. He desperately does not want to be like Nicholas II, who was executed by his own subjects after the collapse of the system.

Yuri Bogdanovwrites about this .

Peace talks are realistic only when he considers the second scenario much more likely than the first – not when the second is objectively more likely. That’s just the way it is. But when Putin’s perception aligns with this reality.

Given that Putin largely lives in a fictional world of reports and a broken feedback mechanism, reality and his perception of it have long since diverged.

Donald Trump and the false reports from the front lines over the past year have done everything possible to make Putin believe in the former again. And the Defense Forces and Ukraine as a whole – to make him believe in the latter.

Therefore, there is little reason to believe in any productive negotiations in November or any peace this winter. Unless, of course, we are unaware of the extent of the Russians’ – and Putin’s personally – despair.

Because what’s on Putin’s mind is more likely an attempt to escalate the conflict against Europe and his dream of “freezing us all out,” rather than peace.

Because living in a world of illusions is easier and more pleasant for a dictator.

As for realistic conditions for peace – they remain unchanged. The only thing that can be implemented is a ceasefire along the front lines, and even then only under independent supervision. Which the U.S., for example, cannot provide, because they have their own interests at stake. As a bonus to the ceasefire, there could be individual provisions that are relatively easy to implement. For example, as a guarantee, the resumption of Russian gas exports through Ukrainian territory. But even that isn’t on the table right now.

People who are selling you something else are simply preying on your emotions. Because complex formulas are impossible to implement given the current level of mutual distrust between the parties and the absence of anyone who can guarantee complex agreements and enforce them.

That’s just how it is.