Russian propaganda is actively spreading the narrative that rumors of mobilization turned out to be fake, since Putin never signed the relevant decree after the election. However, as Russian opposition journalist and blogger Michael Naki points out to 24 Channel , this conclusion is based on a confusion of terms.
Legally, Russia has been mobilized for over four years: the 2022 decree is still in effect, and the Russian Supreme Court has confirmed that it remains valid until specifically repealed. Instead of kilometer-long lines at the borders, the new wave of mobilization has arrived in the form of inconspicuous vans pulling up to apartment buildings. The aggressor nation has shifted to a format of quiet, creeping mobilization based on harsh coercion and abductions.
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From Financial Incentives to Open Violence
Since 2022, the Russian military machine has relied on recruiting contract soldiers with large sums of money. However, this resource is now rapidly drying up, and financial incentives are giving way to deception and physical coercion.
This trend is most evident in the regions. In Omsk, Penza, Izhevsk, and other cities, mass roundups of men are being reported. They are snatched right off the streets, beaten, and forced to sign contracts. Eventually, this practice spread to Moscow and St. Petersburg, where people are detained near subway stations and at service centers.
Victims are specifically targeted. According to human rights activists, a typical target is a man from a poor region who is in debt, under investigation, struggling with addiction, or suffering from serious illnesses.
The state itself created the legal framework for blackmail: the “ a law on writing off debts of up to 10 million rubles in exchange for a contract ” has been in effect since May. People with criminal records or debts are tracked through government databases. Medical contraindications no longer stop anyone.
Naki cites glaring examples: people with epilepsy, hypertension, vision impairments, and metal plates in their bodies are being sent to the front lines. A 19-year-old man was sent on an assault mission under threat of imprisonment, and the very next day he went missing.
The “market” for recruitment and the privatization of coercion
The recruitment process has turned into a full-fledged black market for human trafficking. Regions receive quotas from Moscow, and local authorities are willing to pay huge sums to meet them.
According to Naki, a “bring a friend” scheme is in place: recruiters can turn in anyone to the military registration and enlistment office – a homeless person or someone who is intoxicated – and receive money for doing so.
The pay per recruit ranges from 150,000 rubles in Yaroslavl to one million in Moscow. In the Irkutsk region , the bonus reached a record 1.5 million rubles.
The police, military commissariats, and even criminal groups are involved in this scheme. There are known cases where people were drugged, forced into sham marriages, and had payments worth millions embezzled from them, while the victims were sent to their deaths.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin stays on the sidelines, allowing governors and private agents to do the dirty work, while Putin cynically refers to them as “volunteers.”
The International Scale of the Hunt
As the domestic pool of marginalized groups shrinks, Russia is expanding its “ the geography of the recruitment of foreigners into the Russian army ” abroad.
According to intelligence reports, in just nine months of 2024, Russia recruited more than 16,000 foreigners. Among them are citizens of Burundi, Zimbabwe, Colombia, and Bangladesh.
Most of them fall victim to deception: they are offered “ fake job listings ” in construction, have their passports confiscated, and, after brief training, are thrown into the thick of the fighting.
Of the 30 Bangladeshi citizens who arrived for “work,” 17 were killed by drone strikes on their very first day on the front lines.
The Math Behind the Collapse: Why the System Is Failing
Despite these brutal methods, the covert mobilization is unable to meet the Russian army’s colossal needs.
Naki cites telling statistics: from January through September 2024, 263,000 new contracts were signed, which is significantly fewer than the 292,000 signed during the same period last year. Recruitment rates are falling, even though the average regional cost per contract has risen by nearly 30%.
At the same time, Russia’s losses are breaking records. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russian army lost more than 54,000 personnel in October.
The Kremlin’s plan for 2024 called for 409,000 contract soldiers, but at the current rate, there will be a shortfall of about 60,000 personnel. The quality of these reinforcements is also critically low. The sick and the elderly become a burden on units and die within the first few days.
This “conveyor belt” is only capable of patching holes in assault companies, but it is impossible to form new combat-ready divisions from it.
Funds in the regions are also running out. St. Petersburg was forced to drastically cut signing bonuses due to a budget shortfall.
Russia’s federal budget deficit in 2026 could reach 7.3 trillion rubles, which is twice as much as planned. Defense spending is set at 17.1 trillion rubles – that’s 35% of total spending.
The Kremlin spares no expense for the war, but there simply isn’t enough money to cover everything at once: equipment, salaries, and increasingly expensive mercenaries. When local authorities lack the funds for the “carrot,” they are left with no choice but to use the “stick.”
Preparing for Mass Mobilization and How to Protect Yourself
The depletion of the pool of vulnerable people and the lack of funds are inevitably pushing the Kremlin toward open, mass mobilization.
The infrastructure for this is already fully in place. An electronic registry of draft notices allows authorities to automatically block exit from the country seven days after a notice is issued. Belarus has already synchronized its databases with Russia’s, cutting off the last safe escape route.
Michael Naki emphasizes that covert mobilization is merely buying Putin time. When this resource is finally exhausted, the Russian authorities will be able to simultaneously send out hundreds of thousands of electronic draft notices and instantly close the borders, preventing a repeat of the mass exodus seen in the fall of 2022.
The only way for Russians to protect themselves right now is to engage in nonviolent resistance, refuse to sign any documents, not hand over their passports to the police, and prepare routes for emigration in advance.
Human rights activists advise carrying a notarized copy of your passport, a push-button phone, a power bank, and an application for alternative service. The golden rule is: don’t sign anything.
Even under threat of physical violence, it’s worth holding out for a day or two, since those who actively complain and stand up for their rights are often released.
If the contract has been signed, however, the chances of escape are slim, and the only way out is to desert or surrender via The Ukrainian project "I Want to Live".
Opposition journalist on Russia’s mobilization: watch the video
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