Russia continues to attack Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, even though the Kremlin regularly declares its readiness for peace talks. At the same time, Vladimir Putin is making new demands on NATO, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and industrial targets are forcing Moscow to devote more and more resources to defending its own territory.
In an op-ed published by 24 Channel, Israeli journalist Sergey Ausländer explained why he does not believe the war will end soon and what the Kremlin’s new ultimatums might actually mean. He also analyzed Russian strikes on Kyiv, the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries, developments on the front lines, and the situation regarding the humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshky.
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Talks with Putin Have Not Brought the War Closer to an End
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Støre held a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin that lasted approximately 90 minutes. The European leaders wanted to hear the Russian leader’s position on a possible end to the war in Ukraine, but the conversation focused primarily on his own view of history.
According to Ausländer, Putin once again spoke about the development of the Slavic peoples and promoted the notion of an alleged historical unity between Ukrainians and Russians. The journalist questioned the practical outcome of such a meeting, since no concrete steps toward ending the hostilities followed it.
“If I had the chance to attend a press conference with the Norwegian prime minister and the Finnish president, I would ask: ‘So, has anything become even a little clearer in your minds?’ Of course, nothing has become any clearer there,”
At the same time, preparations are underway for a technical round of negotiations involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia in Abu Dhabi. Donald Trump and representatives of his administration also continue to discuss a possible face-to-face meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin, although the location and conditions of such a meeting remain uncertain.
The Russian dictator insists on holding the meeting in Moscow, while international summits are being discussed as other possible venues. However, Ausländer considers talk of negotiations between the presidents premature until their delegations have agreed on the basic terms of a possible settlement.
Leaders at this level meet only after all negotiations have been conducted, all agreements reached, all parameters defined, and all plans laid out. All that remains for them is to agree, sign, and part ways
Before that point, the parties must resolve significantly more complex issues, including defining potential security zones, the conditions for the withdrawal of heavy weapons, and mechanisms for monitoring the ceasefire. Ausländer does not yet see any signs that Russia and Ukraine are close to agreeing on these parameters.
At the same time, one example of a localized cessation of hostilities has already emerged. This refers to the humanitarian ceasefire in the area of the temporarily occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region.
The truce in Oleshky demonstrated the possibility of a ceasefire
Oleshky is located on the left bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson, near the Antonivsky Bridge. The town has long been in a difficult humanitarian situation, and civilian residents, according to Ausländer, were unable to freely leave the occupied territory.
The town has faced serious problems with electricity, water, and food supplies. The journalist suggested that Russian troops may have used the presence of civilians to shield their positions, making it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to strike at the occupiers.
The Ukrainian military even attempted to deliver humanitarian aid to residents using heavy drones. Subsequently, through mediation – in which, according to Ausländer, Melania Trump was involved – the parties were able to agree on a local ceasefire.
The agreement provided for the delivery of humanitarian aid and preparations for the evacuation of people. At the same time, the question remained as to whether the Russian military would allow residents to choose their own destination.
It seems they agreed that civilians would be able to evacuate wherever they wanted: some to territory controlled by Ukraine, others to territory controlled by Russia. But, knowing the methods of the Russian military, I very much doubt that anyone will be allowed to leave for the Ukrainian side
Despite these concerns, at the time of the visit, the ceasefire in the Oleshky area was being observed. The journalist also noted that Kherson had not been shelled for over a day, although Russian attacks on the city had previously been regular.
This demonstrated that the military is capable of carrying out a ceasefire order if the political leadership makes the appropriate decision. However, the Kremlin is in no hurry to extend such an agreement to the entire front line.
Putin has chosen the tactic of negotiating under fire. Therefore, the shelling continues
While a humanitarian operation was being prepared in Oleshky, the Russian army launched new strikes on other Ukrainian regions. Among the targets were energy facilities, transportation infrastructure, and places where civilians are trying to take shelter from airstrikes.
Russia is trying to paralyze transportation in Kyiv
Kyiv’s bridge infrastructure has become one of the targets of Russian strikes. Ausländer described several serious hits on the South Bridge, specifically damage to its roadway caused by “Iskander” missiles.
Not only does road traffic pass over this bridge, but so does a line of the Kyiv Metro, which connects the two banks of the Dnipro River. Therefore, even partial damage to the structure could create significant problems for residents’ mobility.
At the same time, the journalist explained that it is extremely difficult to completely destroy a large, major bridge with just a few missile strikes. To bring down such a structure, critical damage must be inflicted on its supporting elements, not just the road surface.
The Russian army does not necessarily need to completely destroy the bridge to significantly disrupt life in the capital.
The strategy is entirely different. When bridges are hit, they are closed; inspections must be conducted to determine what has been damaged and whether the bridge is safe to use. All of this leads to a transportation collapse
According to him, Kyiv authorities have already considered the possibility of creating alternative crossings. The discussion centered on securing approximately one billion hryvnias to develop new transportation routes, including access roads to temporary bridges.
European partners could provide Ukraine with modular structures that would allow for faster establishment of crossings. However, installing them requires preparing the necessary infrastructure, and the temporary structures themselves would also remain vulnerable to Russian attacks.
Pontoon bridges, which are easier to install and repair, were discussed separately. However, damage to a single section could render such a crossing inoperable until it is replaced.
Russian propaganda, meanwhile, portrays the strikes on Kyiv’s bridges as an attempt to disrupt Ukraine’s military logistics. Ausländer rejected this explanation, pointing out the capital’s location relative to the front lines.
“No one, especially given the current transportation situation in the Ukrainian capital, is moving military equipment or personnel across these bridges. Everything is being routed along highways bypassing Kyiv,”
The Russian attacks were not limited to bridges. According to data cited by Ausländer, on October 27, Russia launched 16 ballistic missiles and deployed approximately 300 drones against Ukraine.
In Kremenchuk, an energy facility came under attack, and in Kyiv, Russian troops, according to him, began attacking the metro infrastructure, particularly station entrances. This is especially dangerous because the subway is used as a shelter during air raid alerts.
The journalist also highlighted the shortage of interceptor missiles for Ukraine’s air defense. Russian ballistic strikes place an additional strain on the defense system, while Ukraine is forced to seek other ways to weaken the enemy’s military capabilities.
Ukrainian attacks are stretching Russian air defenses
Ukrainian defense forces continue to attack targets deep inside Russian territory, primarily using drones. In recent days, Russian authorities have again reported drones allegedly heading toward Moscow, although their final destinations remained unknown.
Among the targeted sites, Ausländer mentioned a large steel mill in Lipetsk, where a major fire was reported following the strike. At the same time, drones continued to reach other industrial facilities within Russia.
The journalist highlighted the difference between Russian and Ukrainian weapons. Russia makes extensive use of ballistic missiles capable of causing widespread destruction, while Ukrainian drones typically carry smaller warheads.
However, regular attacks – even by relatively small drones – pose a serious challenge for the Russian military in terms of allocating air defense resources.
Russian air defense is focused on protecting Moscow, Putin’s residences, and certain key targets. The rest of the vast territory remains exposed
Russia is forced to keep a significant number of systems near the capital and other locations prioritized by the leadership. Because of this, it is practically impossible to provide equally dense protection for all industrial enterprises and military facilities.
Where the Ukrainian military has the ability to launch missiles, the consequences can be significantly more severe. As examples, Ausländer cited strikes on the Russian enterprises “Energia” and “Proton.”
The “Energia” plant in Yelets manufactures batteries, including those for military equipment, while “Proton” specializes in microelectronics. According to the journalist’s assessment, both facilities sustained significant damage, with “Energia’s” production capacity suffering particularly severe damage.
Such attacks affect the Russian industry’s ability to supply the army with necessary components. At the same time, strikes on oil refineries – which have effectively ceased recently – remain a key strategy for weakening the enemy’s economy.
The pause in strikes on oil refineries allows Russia to resume production
Ausländer noted that Ukrainian attacks on major Russian oil refineries have temporarily ceased. He does not venture to definitively determine the reasons for this pause.
The journalist suggested two possible explanations. Ukraine may have agreed to limit such strikes under pressure from Donald Trump, or it may have deliberately allowed Russian enterprises to restore some of their damaged capacity before launching a new series of attacks.
While the strikes have paused, the Russian oil refining industry is gradually ramping up production. According to Reuters data cited by Ausländer, oil refining volumes in Russia rose by approximately 25% in the second half of October compared to the previous period.
At the same time, diesel fuel production in October increased by approximately 50,000 metric tons per day. This indicates the restoration of some of the processing capacity that had previously been damaged.
As soon as there is a lull, the Russians immediately restore certain facilities. As soon as the strikes resume, production drops again
According to his assessment, Russian companies have gradually learned to repair damaged equipment more quickly than they did at the start of Ukraine’s campaign of strikes against oil refining facilities. However, this does not mean that the damage inflicted earlier has ceased to affect the economy.
The journalist cited data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, according to which Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by 17% in September compared to the same period the previous year. This figure is influenced by global prices, export volumes, and other economic factors, not just Ukrainian strikes.
At the same time, the ability to regularly disable production facilities remains one of the key tools for exerting economic pressure on the Kremlin. Ausländer did not rule out that, once the lull ends, the Ukrainian military may once again attack facilities that have managed to resume operations.
Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues on the front lines, where the Russian army has encountered difficulties in certain sectors that do not align with the optimistic reports from its command.
The Russian offensive has stalled in the Lyman sector
According to Ausländer’s assessment, the most intense fighting is taking place near Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka, on the outskirts of the Kramatorsk metropolitan area. At the same time, on the Lyman front, Ukrainian forces have managed to significantly disrupt the enemy’s plans.
The journalist linked the developments in this sector to the Ukrainian “Vivaldi” operation. According to him, its results forced Russian units to retreat and reevaluate the deployment of their forces.
On the Lyman front, the Russian offensive has come to a complete halt. The 20th Army has withdrawn beyond the Zherebets River, exposing the flank of the 25th Army
This redeployment could create additional opportunities for Ukrainian units in this sector of the front. However, how the situation develops will depend on the actions of both sides, as Russian troops continue to attempt offensives in neighboring sectors as well.
Fighting is also ongoing in the Dnipropetrovsk region and near Dobropillia. At the same time, according to the journalist, the Russian military leadership has already begun reporting the capture of territories over which it has not actually established control.
One of the most telling examples is the story of Dobropillia. Ausländer drew attention to reports by military analysts regarding an unusual production by Russian propagandists.
The Russians brought a replica of the sign at the entrance to Dobropillya to Bakhmut. And there they are filming a movie about how they captured it. Moreover, they’re filming in Bakhmut
Dobropillia, he said, remains under Ukrainian control, although fighting and attempts by Russian groups to infiltrate the area continue near the city. Bakhmut, on the other hand, is under Russian occupation, which allows propagandists to film staged scenes directly behind enemy lines.
Separately, Ausländer drew attention to the use of artificial intelligence to create videos purporting to show the Russians’ successful advance. He cited the example of a clip in which a soldier is holding a flag unnaturally, and the proportions of the figure and the flag itself look implausible.
According to the journalist, such footage may be used to corroborate victories that the Russian command has already reported to senior leadership. However, such information operations do not change the situation on the battlefield or resolve the Russian army’s problems.
And despite the lack of decisive successes on the front lines, the Kremlin continues to raise the demands it makes during discussions about a possible end to the war.
Putin is making demands on NATO that are knowingly impossible to meet
Russia continues to demand territorial concessions from Ukraine, specifically the transfer of the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, Putin’s latest ultimatums go far beyond the Ukrainian issue and concern the future security architecture in Europe.
The Kremlin has once again raised the issue of rolling back NATO’s military presence to its 1997 configuration. This would entail a review of the Alliance’s force deployments in countries that joined later, including Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, and Sweden.
Ausländer noted that Russia’s demands not only affect NATO’s infrastructure but also effectively call into question these countries’ right to independently determine their own defense systems. The journalist sees no way to meet such conditions without a fundamental overhaul of the European security order.
He is demanding the impossible – something that cannot be and must not be done. It is obvious that this is aimed at derailing the negotiations
In his view, there is no convincing practical explanation for choosing 1997 as a benchmark. Putin could have named another date, but the main goal for the Kremlin is to present Ukraine’s partners with a condition they cannot agree to.
In the event of a refusal, Moscow would have the opportunity to accuse Western countries of unwillingness to negotiate and use this as a justification for continuing the war.
Ausländer also drew attention to the Russian dictator’s attitude toward Ukraine itself. Putin does not view Ukraine as an equal party with whom to seek compromises; instead, he frames the war as a confrontation between Russia and the West.
Putin does not perceive Ukraine as a subject in its own right. To him, it is merely a proxy through which the insidious West is waging war against him
Given this stance, the Kremlin seeks to conduct primary negotiations with the leaders of states that Putin considers his equals. First and foremost, this refers to Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, while the Russian leader attempts to downplay the role of European politicians.
The journalist also suggested that even potential agreements preventing Ukraine from joining NATO would not necessarily change the Kremlin’s behavior. After all, Russia’s main demands now concern a much broader range of countries, and their fulfillment depends on the decisions of the Alliance members themselves.
At the same time, the example of Oleshky showed that the Russian army is capable of ceasing fire upon receiving the appropriate order. However, as long as the Kremlin insists on revising the European security system and the transfer of Ukrainian territories to it, technical negotiations have not brought the parties any closer to the conditions for a general cessation of hostilities.
Putin is making unrealistic demands on NATO; Ausländer explained why the Kremlin needs new ultimatums: watch the video
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