Could the truce in Oleshky mark the beginning of a broader ceasefire? What is known about the negotiations under the auspices of Melania Trump

Diplomatic efforts to end the war are intensifying, but Moscow continues to insist on its own categorical and not particularly realistic demands, while Ukraine is seeking concrete steps that could bring an end to the hostilities closer. Against this backdrop, discussions are resuming about an energy truce and the possibility of a new meeting involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.

An agreement on a ceasefire in the occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region has drawn widespread attention. It is intended to facilitate humanitarian aid and the evacuation of civilians, but can a local ceasefire be a step toward a broader ceasefire? And is Russia truly ready to compromise, or is it using the negotiations to achieve its own goals?

24 Channel investigated what Ukraine and Russia are seeking in the negotiations, which agreements could yield practical results, and what the truce in Oleshky might mean for the eventual end of the war. Read more in the article below.

The ceasefire in Oleshky has already begun

Starting at 3:00 a.m. on October 27, a ceasefire was implemented in a designated area of the temporarily occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region.

Important! It has now been determined that the ceasefire in Oleshky will last until the evening of November 1. This local humanitarian compromise was achieved thanks to the diplomatic efforts of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine emphasized that the temporary de-escalation is intended solely for the safe delivery of aid and the evacuation of the civilian population.

Dmytro Lubinets, the Verkhovna Rada’s Commissioner for Human Rights, reported that agreements were reached with Russian Human Rights Commissioner Yana Lantratova.

As of 9:00 a.m. on October 27, no violations of the ceasefire had been recorded in the Oleshky area. This was reported by Pavlo Drogal, spokesperson for the 30th Marine Corps Brigade of the Ukrainian Navy.

Military expert Oleksandr Musienko, in an interview with 24 Channel, expressed hope that the local ceasefire would hold and that the residents of Oleshky, who have been held hostage by the Russians, would be rescued from their predicament. Experts also hope that the U.S. First Lady’s peace initiative will serve as a starting point for genuine negotiations.

Will this be the beginning of a further ceasefire? Theoretically, there is a chance– noted Oleksandr Musienko.

According to Oleksandr Musienko, the success of the operation will depend on whether aid can be safely delivered and the evacuation of civilians organized.

Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation, agrees with Musienko. He believes that Russia may adhere to the ceasefire and refrain from violating it in order to maintain favorable relations with U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump, especially since American journalists from the pro-Trump TV channel Newsmax are on the ground.

All of this is so that Melania Trump – and, again, Trump himself – can report on a successful operation on the eve of the election and emphasize that, as you can see, it is possible to reach a peace agreement. And all this blah-blah-blah that we hear from one side– said Andriushchenko.

By the way, in the occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region, civilians are left without sufficient food, water, medicine, or access to humanitarian aid. The Russians have blocked escape routes, mined roads, and are terrorizing people with drone attacks. To learn more about why people find themselves in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe, read the report by 24 Channel via a link.

The humanitarian crisis is not limited to Oleshky

At the same time, according to Andriushchenko, the ceasefire in Oleshky does not guarantee safety for people in neighboring communities. Residents attempting to reach the city may be at risk of shelling if the occupying authorities do not allow them to cross the designated border.

There have already been semi-official reports from various sources close to the occupying forces in the occupied Kherson region that people attempting to enter Oleshky and cross this boundary may come under fire, because the occupying authorities have not granted them such permission– noted the head of the Center for the Study of the Occupation.

Andriushchenko also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive evacuation that would take into account the safety of civilians not only in the ceasefire zone but also in adjacent territories.

Additional disagreements have arisen regarding the evacuation of children. Dmytro Lubinets insists on the need to evacuate them to territory controlled by Ukraine, while Russian Human Rights Commissioner Yana Lantratova stated that there would be no evacuation of children to Ukraine.

What role does the U.S. play in the humanitarian operation?

The U.S. is involved in covering the humanitarian operation in Oleshky. Melania Trump’s chief advisor, Mark Beckman, announced that Newsmax plans to send journalists to the city to monitor the operation.

Russia has assured Ukrainians, as well as Americans, that it will respect the wishes of Oleshky’s residentsBeckman said.

According to him, residents will be able to choose whether to leave or stay at home, and the parties have reportedly developed mechanisms designed to respect their choice and ensure their protection. However, the details of these mechanisms have not been made public, so it is difficult to assess the effectiveness of the stated guarantees at this time.

The presence of American journalists may draw attention to the operation, but it does not in itself guarantee compliance with the ceasefire. However, there is also a risk of Russian provocations and sabotage, in which the occupiers may use American journalists.

It is certainly not in Russia’s interest to show journalists the situation in Oleshky as it really is. Therefore, we should expect fake news, disinformation, and actors posing as “crucified boys” and “victims of the Nazis.” This is a tried-and-true Russian tactic.

Can a local ceasefire bring the war closer to an end?

Negotiations have not yet resolved the main differences between Kyiv and Moscow: Ukraine insists on security guarantees and concrete steps to halt the attacks, while Russia continues to make demands regarding the European security architecture.

The ceasefire in Oleshky will show whether the parties are capable of implementing limited humanitarian agreements. However, a broader ceasefire requires mutual commitments, a clear monitoring mechanism, and security guarantees. None of this is even close to being in place yet. Nevertheless, there are some positive signs.

For example, on October 27, the leaders of Finland and Norway, Alexander Stubb and Jonas Gahr Støre, held a “telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin” on the war in Ukraine and security in Europe. Before the talks, they coordinated their actions with Kyiv. Among the topics discussed was the possibility of a “trilateral meeting involving the United States” in November 2026.

However, Putin once again insisted that Russian demands be taken into account and voiced grievances against NATO (as a reminder, he wants the Alliance to return to its 1997 borders). In other words, Moscow is effectively linking an end to the war to broader changes in Europe’s security architecture – something no one will allow of their own free will.

Peace Negotiations: What Ukraine Demands

For Ukraine, the issue of security after the war ends remains fundamental. President Zelenskyy has stated that Kyiv will not agree to neutral status for the country or restrictions on the Ukrainian military.

Ukraine proposes starting with specific agreements: a cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, the security of maritime transport, grain deals, and the exchange of prisoners of war.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine's readiness for a partial ceasefire for a partial ceasefire ahead of the trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi. But the Kremlin officially rejects the idea of halting hostilities and plans to continue military operations.

The president emphasized that even without an agreement on a complete end to the war, the parties can agree on steps that will yield tangible results.

However, the cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure must be mutual: Ukraine is ready to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries if Russia stops shelling Ukrainian power facilities.

Military expert Oleksandr Musienko noted in an interview with 24 Channel that the next round of trilateral talks is intended to lay the groundwork for a future summit. However, the delegations from Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia currently need to complete a significant amount of technical work, as key security issues remain unresolved.

Interestingly, Donald Trump has stated the United States’ intention to force Ukraine and Russia to sign a peace agreement. In his view, the Kremlin is currently showing greater willingness to compromise than Kyiv, although both sides simply do not know how to properly organize this process.

At the same time, the American leader avoided giving a direct answer to remarks about Russia's violation of the energy ceasefire that he had already declared twice, placing the responsibility on both parties to the conflict.