Lviv, Lutsk, and beyond: how Russia is expanding the geography of its aerial terror and what comes next – An Analysis by 24 Channel

This fall, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s western regions. Whereas previously the focus of massive attacks – particularly drone strikes – was on the center of the country and frontline regions, Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, and even Zakarpattia are now increasingly under threat.

To carry out these attacks, the occupiers are resorting to new tactics – testing new flight paths for jet-powered drones, attempting to refine their control methods, and seeking opportunities to expand their arsenal of long-range weapons.

24 Channel investigated what Russia’s objectives are, what role Belarus plays in this, and what new threats the western region might face. Read more in the article below.

What routes are the drones taking

Russia is not only increasing the intensity of its attacks on Ukraine’s western regions but is also testing new routes for its drones.

In particular, the occupiers are launching jet-powered "Gerani-4" drones from Crimea through the Odesa region, along the border with Moldova, toward the western regions.

Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, the president’s advisor on the development of defense technologies, reported that four drones recently reached Lviv, and several more reached Lutsk.

They covered approximately 820–880 kilometers, flying at an altitude of 5–6 kilometers at a speed of 320–380 kilometers per hour.

Such flights indicate that Russia is testing the capabilities of jet-powered drones over long distances. To increase range, the occupiers may reduce the drones’ payload, freeing up space for additional fuel. In this case, the drone can fly farther, although its destructive power upon impact may be reduced.

Russia gains additional capabilities for such attacks thanks to Belarus. Repeaters operating on Belarusian territory amplify the signal and help maintain communication with the drones at a considerable distance from command centers.

Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, explains that Russian drones use this method, in particular, to reach Volyn to attack targets near the Polish border.

Thus, Belarus is helping Russia maintain control of its drones during strikes on Ukraine’s rear. At the same time, as Demchenko noted, the Ukrainian side has not detected the deployment of additional Russian units to the Belarusian border. In other words, the current focus is primarily on technical support for airstrikes.

Yuriy Ignat, head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force, also commented on the flights of jet-powered drones to western regions during an appearance on the “Ranok.LIVE” program. According to him, Russia uses various launch sites for drones, including military airfields.

The defense forces are aware of these sites and are striking them, but the enemy can change launch locations. This makes it difficult to predict future attacks and indicates that the Russians continue to seek new ways to deploy long-range drones.

What is Russia’s goal

Military analyst Denis Popovich suggested that the Russian command aims to subject as much of Ukraine’s territory as possible to aerial terror.

“We are now seeing that western regions, which previously had not experienced such Russian strikes, are being hit very hard. These include Kovel, Lutsk, Rivne, and the Volyn Oblast. Even individual villages in Volyn are coming under attack,” he emphasized.

Popovich believes that the Kremlin is counting on Ukrainians growing weary of the war and is seeking to prompt them to demand that the government make concessions to Moscow.

Consequences of the latest attacks on western Ukraine / Photo: State Emergency Service

This calculation is part of a broader strategy to wear down Ukraine. When military objectives cannot be achieved at the expected pace on the front lines, strikes on rear regions become yet another means of exerting pressure.

Today, Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi reported that the Russians are launching two to three waves of jet-powered drones in this direction every day.

According to the mayor of Lviv, energy infrastructure facilities – particularly substations – remain the primary targets. Russia continues to strike at energy infrastructure in an effort to make life difficult for civilians, create additional problems for the economy, and intensify psychological pressure on society.

Damage to such facilities has consequences far beyond the immediate impact area. The power grid connects different regions, and damage to its components can affect electricity supply, business operations, and people’s daily lives.

Therefore, the expansion of the attack area is not only an increase in the number of cities under threat but also an attempt to place additional strain on the country’s critical infrastructure.

However, it is important to note one more detail here: during attacks on western regions, Russian “Shaheds” can change their flight path multiple times. In particular, the drones are capable of flying from Volyn to Lviv Oblast and then returning, circling near specific settlements.

Such maneuvers not only force people to remain under the threat of shelling for longer periods but may also serve a reconnaissance purpose. Popovich suggested that the Russians are attempting in this way to identify the operational characteristics of Ukraine’s air defense system.

The Russians can track where radar stations are activated and from which positions the Ukrainian military is firing. They analyze the collected data to factor it into their planning for future attacks.

Despite the enemy’s change in tactics, Ukrainian air defense continues to shoot down a significant portion of the drones heading toward the western regions.

Why We Shouldn’t Forget About Conventional “Shaheds”

Despite the focus on jet-powered drones, one should not assume that they alone constitute the sole or primary threat to the western regions. Russia continues to use conventional “Shaheds” on a massive scale, and these have their own advantages.

Yuriy Ignat emphasizes that conventional kamikaze drones remain particularly dangerous for Ukraine’s central and western regions. They are capable of traveling long distances, so they can attack rear areas even without the use of newer jet-powered models.

“Conventional ‘Shahed’ drones,” he said, “haven’t gone anywhere – this is especially true for the central and western regions – because they have a longer range and, consequently, a larger radius of destruction than jet-powered models,”– he emphasized.

In addition, the Russian military combines different types of drones depending on the mission and tactical situation. They also take into account weather conditions that could affect the course of an attack. Therefore, the emergence of jet-powered drones does not mean that previous weapons systems have become obsolete.

What new drones does the enemy plan to deploy

At the same time, Russia is developing high-speed strike drones whose characteristics are similar to those of cruise missiles. Military expert Roman Svitan, analyzing new Russian developments for 24 Channel, highlighted the “Filin,” “Banderol,” “Geran-5,” and other weapon systems.

According to the expert, the use of turbojet engines allows such missiles to reach speeds of up to 700 kilometers per hour and travel over 1,000 kilometers. At the same time, their warheads may be smaller than those of traditional cruise missiles. This gives Russia the ability to create relatively inexpensive weapons that can potentially be produced in large quantities.

The main danger lies in the fact that, if production is scaled up, Russia will be able to deploy such weapons more frequently during combined attacks. Higher speeds will reduce the time available to detect and intercept them, while their long range will allow strikes on cities far from the front lines.

At the same time, it is important to distinguish between the already documented use of jet-powered drones and the prospects for new developments. Russia is already testing the capabilities of rocket-powered drones on the western front, while the scale of future use of these new rocket-powered drones will depend on the results of these tests and the enemy’s production capabilities.

Will Ballistic Missiles Really Be Fired at Western Regions

In addition to drones, Russia is considering expanding its arsenal of weapons. One potential scenario involves deploying Russian ballistic missiles on Belarusian territory.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Moscow needs Alexander Lukashenko's support not only for relay stations but also for deploying other types of weapons, including ballistic missiles.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia plans to complete testing of a missile capable of traveling up to 800 kilometers by the end of 2026. If this plan is successfully implemented, Ukraine’s western regions will also be at risk. Deploying missiles closer to the Ukrainian border could shorten flight times and make it more difficult to respond to an attack.

At the same time, the current possibility of deploying ballistic missiles in Belarus should not be treated as a fait accompli. This is a threat that Ukrainian leadership is highlighting as it assesses Russia’s future plans and its cooperation with Minsk.

Military analyst Vasyl Pekhno previously noted to 24 Channel that the development of such weapons could be delayed. The process is affected by technical problems, sanctions, and the actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which are attempting to destroy Russian military facilities and weaken the enemy’s production capabilities.

Furthermore, it is in Ukraine’s interest to act preemptively. The expert concluded that the best course of action remains the destruction of launchers and production facilities for Russian weapons.