Trump Is Being Stripped of Power: Democrats Are Preparing Large-Scale Investigations and Could Hit Putin

Following the Democrats’ victory in Congress, Donald Trump will have to reckon with political opponents who will gain new leverage over his decisions. Not only are the U.S. president’s domestic initiatives at risk, but so are agreements with Russia – particularly regarding sanctions and energy. For Ukraine, this could open up new opportunities, but the final say on military aid will continue to rest with the White House.

The changing political landscape and the White House’s maneuvers

A Historic Victory for the Democrats – who have gained control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress (54 seats in the Senate and 220 in the House of Representatives) – is radically changing the political dynamics in Washington.

The American electorate, concerned about the state of the economy, gas prices, and threats to democracy, has turned away from the Republican Party even in traditionally conservative states such as Texas. The loss of control over the legislative branch is forcing Donald Trump to seek new talking points and rethink his strategy.

A telling sign is the sharp shift in the White House’s rhetoric regarding the causes of economic problems in the U.S. Whereas Trump previously blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for rising gas prices, after the election he suddenly shifted the blame to the conflict with Iran.

This maneuver is an attempt to divert attention from domestic political setbacks and shift the focus to foreign policy. At the same time, the administration’s attempts to strike deals with Russia on diesel fuel supplies have faced harsh criticism. Opponents point out that the U.S. is a diesel exporter and does not need Russian resources, and that the deal itself appears to be a political lifeline for Vladimir Putin, which contradicts recently signed sanctions laws.

Incidentally, the Donald Trump administration’s attempts to negotiate with Russia on diesel fuel supplies drew criticism even among Republicans. The U.S. exports more than 60 million metric tons of diesel per year, while the volumes promised by Russia would cover the needs of the American economy for about one and a half days. Therefore, Trump’s opponents doubt that the deal will actually help lower prices and point to its political nature – easing sanctions gives the Kremlin additional opportunities to profit from energy resources.

Full interview with the journalist: watch the video

The Limits of Presidential Power: How Congress Will Rein in Trump

Historically, when U.S. presidents lose congressional support, they focus on foreign policy, where the executive branch has significantly more freedom of action and the ability to govern through executive orders. However, the new Congress has significant levers of influence capable of limiting even Trump’s foreign policy initiatives.

Personnel issues will be the main tool for exerting pressure. The Senate has the authority to block or delay the confirmation of nominees for key positions in the administration, including cabinet secretaries and judges. This creates room for political bargaining: Democrats will be able to demand concessions on foreign policy in exchange for unblocking personnel appointments.

In addition, a wave of congressional investigations, interrogations, and public hearings is expected, aimed at exposing the White House’s true motives behind controversial decisions.

Interestingly, Yuriy Rashkin noted that following the U.S. midterm elections, Congress may step up its investigation into the actions of the Donald Trump administration. Lawmakers plan to request documents and testimony from officials, particularly regarding decisions to limit military aid to Ukraine, the operation of Starlink, and government contracts with Elon Musk’s companies. They may pay particular attention to who exactly issued the relevant orders and on what grounds they were adopted.

The Sanctions Noose Around Russia: The Senate’s Informal Tools

Of particular concern is the possibility of a softening of the sanctions regime against Russia. Although challenging presidential decisions through the Supreme Court is an extremely slow process, lawmakers are already demonstrating a willingness to use asymmetric deterrence methods.

The actions of a bipartisan group of senators, who issued a direct warning to the private sector against violating the sanctions regime in the context of energy deals with Russia, have set an effective precedent. This mechanism acts as a powerful deterrent: even if Trump formally lifts restrictions on Russian oil and gas, the Senate can threaten any private company that attempts to take advantage of this decision with large-scale investigations.

Fear of congressional scrutiny and reputational damage is forcing businesses to refrain from cooperating with Moscow, effectively nullifying any potential concessions from the White House.

Prospects for Ukraine: Between Risks and New Opportunities

No fundamental changes in U.S. policy are expected before the new Congress convenes in January. However, the new legislature is demonstrating significantly greater openness to supporting Ukraine and a tougher stance toward Russia.

Expert assessments point to the potential for Ukraine to receive large-scale aid and a defense budget of at least $10 billion.

The main challenge remains the implementation of these decisions by the executive branch. Even if Congress allocates the funds, the presidential administration could create artificial obstacles, delays, and logistical challenges to hold up weapons deliveries, as is already happening with European purchases of American weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

At the same time, Trump’s unpredictability could also work in Kyiv’s favor. The ongoing Russian bombing campaign and Putin’s unwillingness to agree to genuine peace deals may once again disappoint the U.S. president, forcing him to adopt a tougher stance. Over the next two years, the Ukrainian issue will inevitably become part of complex political bargaining between the White House and a strengthened Democratic-controlled Congress.