Ukraine continues to attack Russian military and industrial facilities, but strikes on oil refineries have recently become a particular source of controversy. Russia is already restoring some of its damaged facilities and resuming fuel exports, thereby generating additional revenue for its economy.
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Reserve Colonel and military expert Roman Svitan, speaking on 24 Channel, posed pointed questions to the military command regarding the situation with Russian oil refineries. He also stated that Ukraine had obtained a license to assemble Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, explained the possible origin of the explosions in the Urals, and assessed the prospects for U.S. aid after the elections.
A Pause in Attacks on Oil Refineries
Russia is gradually resuming fuel production following previous Ukrainian attacks. In particular, the Syzran Oil Refinery has resumed operations, and Russian facilities are returning to the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Svitan pointed out the discrepancy between his own observations and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s public statements. The president spoke of continuing attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure, while the expert sees no reports of new strikes on such facilities.
This is the third week that the Armed Forces haven’t struck Russian oil facilities. Who gave you that order? Don’t cite Zelenskyy. He specifically says that the strikes are continuing. But we see that not a single refinery is on fire
He directed his complaints at representatives of the military leadership, specifically Khmara, Skybyuk, and Drapaty. In his view, the generals must explain why, despite successful operations against other Russian enterprises, the oil refining sector is not facing similar pressure.
Meanwhile, the easing of restrictions on the sale of Russian petroleum products creates additional opportunities for Moscow. Fuel from restored facilities is entering the domestic market, and Russia can once again export part of its production.
The Russian treasury receives money, which it ultimately uses to produce weapons and ammunition that kill our soldiers and civilians. That is why oil refining has always been prioritized: it strikes directly at the wallet of the Russian economy
The supply of fuel to Russian military units also depends on the operation of these facilities. Of particular importance is the production of jet fuel for combat aircraft, which Moscow continues to use to strike Ukraine.
What the Strike on Voronezh Revealed
Ukrainian drones attacked several targets simultaneously in the Voronezh region. Among the targets were an aviation enterprise, a synthetic rubber plant, and the Northern Bridge.
The military significance of the chemical plant extends beyond its primary products. Plants of this type can produce additives that increase the octane rating of gasoline, and the aviation manufacturing facility that was attacked, according to an expert, manufactures components and assemblies for Il-96 aircraft.
The operation was excellent. They assembled several dozen drones, broke through the frontline air defense, and struck several facilities at once. Three hundred kilometers may not seem like much, but they still had to break through. The Russians still have fairly dense air defenses
At the same time, he assessed the damage to the bridge much more cautiously. Drones do not always have sufficient power to cause serious destruction to such structures, so the outcome of such an attack may be limited.
Instead, Svitan suggested comparing the consequences of this operation to the potential damage to a large oil refinery. In his opinion, the nature of production and the presence of flammable substances make such facilities particularly vulnerable.
If all these drones had struck the Saratov Oil Refinery, it wouldn’t have even recovered this year. Oil refining facilities burn on their own. Sometimes a single drone is enough to burn down a separate section of the plant, and with petrochemicals, it takes a bit more effort
The Engels-2 airbase, which Russia uses for Tu-95 strategic bombers, is located near the Saratov Oil Refinery. The region’s oil refining infrastructure supports, among other things, the production of aviation fuel needed to operate such aircraft.
Storm Shadow as a Ukrainian Weapon
Storm Shadow missiles were used to strike the “Proton” plant in the Oryol region and the “Energia” facility in Lipetsk. These facilities are linked to the production of components for Russian weapons, particularly missile systems.
Commenting on their destruction, Svitan made a sensational statement about the origin of the missiles used by Ukraine. He claims that several months ago, agreements were reached on licensed production involving British and French partners.
Let’s just say these are Ukrainian missiles. We have obtained a license for the major assembly of the Storm Shadow and SCALP. These are now our Ukrainian weapons, striking Russia. And neither the British nor the French need to fear that the Russians will look at them askance
To illustrate his point, he cited the example of Ukrainian drones, which may consist primarily of foreign components but are considered domestic products once manufactured at Ukrainian facilities.
The expert proposes extending this model to other high-precision weapons, including, in the future, Tomahawk missiles. However, he considers the media coverage of Ukraine’s long-range operations to be no less important.
Russia uses such strikes to put pressure on Western societies, attempting to portray military aid to Ukraine as direct participation by other states in the war.
The Russians immediately jump on this through their bot networks: “Look, your missiles struck Russia – now get ready, we’re going to wipe London off the map.” This creates problems for the politicians who are helping us. Why should we play into the hands of Russian propaganda?
According to him, assistance from partners is consistent with Ukraine’s right to self-defense, enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter. He also highlighted the effectiveness of cruise missiles at ranges of several hundred kilometers, when the enemy has limited time to deploy fighter jets in response.
Among Ukrainian-developed systems, Svitan mentioned the “Flamingo,” which could also be used for such missions. At the same time, he expressed doubt that there are enough of these missiles for regular strikes.
Explosions in the Urals
In Russia’s Sverdlovsk Oblast, seven out of twenty tank cars traveling by rail reportedly derailed. According to reports, the tank cars were carrying fuel, and some of them exploded.
The causes of the incident remain unclear, but a reserve colonel speculated that it could have been the work of Ukrainian intelligence services or local groups opposed to the Moscow authorities.
“I do not rule out the possibility that our special services, operating in a "free hunting" mode, were involved. They saw an opportunity to inflict losses on a Russian military facility – they carry out the mission without coordinating with headquarters and then report on their actions,”
According to him, this practice has been in use since 2014 among members of the underground in the Donetsk region. It provides for significant autonomy for local groups, which make decisions directly on the ground.
Svitan also suggests the involvement of Russians seeking to free their regions from Moscow’s political control. Some of these groups, he claims, are cooperating with Ukraine and are interested in further weakening the Russian state.
The expert asserts that dissatisfaction is already emerging among these groups over a possible reduction in Ukrainian attacks on fuel infrastructure. He does not rule out that certain underground operations may continue regardless of decisions made regarding regular long-range strikes.
The U.S. May Change Course
After the U.S. midterm congressional elections on November 3, new opportunities for military support for Ukraine may emerge. Roman Svitan links his expectations primarily to the prospect of a change in the majority in the House of Representatives.
Democrats will almost certainly take control of the House of Representatives. The situation is different in the Senate – there, it’s roughly fifty-fifty. Trump may retain Republican control of the Senate, but he is almost certain to lose the House of Representatives
Under this scenario, Democrats will have more opportunities to initiate investigations into the U.S. administration’s decisions and demand explanations from its representatives.
For Ukraine, bipartisan support for legislative initiatives regarding defense aid and sanctions against Russia will be of particular importance. Decisions enshrined in congressional legislation are harder to block unilaterally than programs whose implementation depends primarily on the president’s position.
If Congress passes a resolution and compels Trump to transfer Javelins to us, he will have nowhere to hide; he will have to comply with the law. The same situation could arise here. It is precisely because of this approach that there is hope
He predicts further changes in the funding of U.S. operations in the Middle East. In particular, Democrats may insist on cutting spending on the war against Iran and reviewing aid to Israel.
In his view, this will also have implications for the global oil market. Rising prices due to hostilities in the Middle East allow Russia to generate more revenue from exports, while a possible easing of tensions could weaken this source of funding for the Russian economy.
Europe and Pro-Russian Forces
The expert takes a more optimistic view of political changes in European countries. Using the example of Aleksandar Vučić’s setbacks in Serbia, he explained why he does not consider the rise of pro-Russian forces in Europe to be inevitable.
At the same time, Moscow continues to try to influence public sentiment through bot farms, social media, and information campaigns. He drew particular attention to TikTok and attempts to exploit protest movements in France, Belgium, and Italy to exacerbate internal conflicts.
Among politicians whose statements could pose risks to continued support for Ukraine, he mentioned Marine Le Pen. At the same time, he did not rule out that her promises to cut aid to Kyiv might be linked to the pre-election struggle for the support of certain voter groups.
Regardless of Paris’s future political course, Ukraine will have to take into account the actual levels of support from various partners. Svitan compared French aid to the contributions of countries with significantly fewer economic resources.
The Baltic countries – Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia – provide us with the most aid relative to their GDP. We are immensely grateful to them. France could increase this aid tenfold, or even a hundredfold. They are not doing so
Given the possible political changes in France, he advises caution when planning long-term programs related to the Rafale and Mirage fighter jets.
Svitan considers pan-European defense projects, as well as British and German capabilities – particularly the Eurofighter – to be more reliable areas of cooperation. Among the most promising aircraft for Ukraine, he named the Swedish Gripen, provided that a sufficient number can be secured.
NATO as a Bargaining Chip
The Kremlin is once again returning to the demands it made even before the full-scale invasion. These involve limiting NATO’s military presence and effectively reverting to the Alliance’s 1997 configuration.
Svitan believes these ultimatums are being used primarily to intimidate Eastern and Northern Europe. Russia is trying to create the impression that it is ready to make sweeping demands on the entire European security system.
They’re using this to scare people. And then they’ll say: let’s set aside the 1997 NATO issue – just hand Ukraine over to us. That’s roughly how they’re bringing up this scare tactic again and starting to use it as a bargaining chip
He links the possibility of such a deal to the preparation of new negotiation formats, particularly involving the U.S., Russia, and China.
He speculates that Donald Trump will try to distance Moscow from Beijing or at least portray Russia as a relatively neutral player in the U.S.-China confrontation. However, the Kremlin’s dependence on the Chinese economy and political support significantly limits the scope for such a maneuver.
Xi Jinping fully understands the Russian leadership’s position, so it will be difficult for the U.S. president to shift the balance of relations between Moscow and Beijing, even with the help of new economic proposals.
Svitan on the pause in strikes against Russian oil refineries: watch the video
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