Stopping the Shift Toward Moscow: The Times Assesses the Impact of the US Elections on the War in Ukraine

The Times reports on this.

Will the New Congress Affect Trump’s Relationship with Putin?

The article states that even if bills providing aid to Ukraine or imposing tougher sanctions against Russia are passed, U.S. President Donald Trump will retain his veto power. To override it, lawmakers would need a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which representatives of the Democratic Party are likely to find difficult to achieve.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, noted that the levers of foreign policy will remain in the hands of the U.S. president, but lawmakers’ vigilance will increase significantly.

“I don’t think the situation will change radically, because foreign policy will remain in the president’s hands. At the same time, the new Congress may generally be more critical and vigilant regarding Trump's attempts to strike deals with Putin at the expense of Ukraine or his possible attempts to lift sanctions against Russia,”Merezhko said.

Gaining control of Congress paves the way for a thorough scrutiny of the White House’s decisions regarding Ukraine, up to and including attempts to impeach the president. In addition, the publication suggests, lawmakers may launch an investigation into Elon Musk over temporary restrictions on the use of Starlink services in Ukraine.

In Russia, supporters of the war argue that the results of the U.S. midterm elections will have little impact on the negotiation process to end the war. However, the defeat of Trump’s allies signals to Moscow that the era of easy deals with the U.S. president is over.

For Moscow, the main takeaway is that relying exclusively on personal ties with Trump is becoming increasingly risky. The American political system has once again demonstrated its ability to limit the president’s power, which means that any long-term agreements must take into account not only the White House’s position but also the balance of power in Congress– emphasized Ilya Graschenkov, a Moscow-based political analyst who advises Russian politicians.

Pressure on Kyiv and American Public Sentiment

The authors believe that since the Ukrainian government is increasingly rejecting Trump’s demands – including calls not to strike Russian oil refineries – Putin plans to pressure Ukraine into capitulation by intensifying attacks on civilian infrastructure.

At the same time, it is noted that Trump’s refusal to provide direct defense support to Kyiv is an unpopular decision among American voters. According to the cited Harvard study, more than 60% of respondents support providing weapons to Ukraine and imposing new sanctions against Russia.

Incidentally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope that a Democratic victory in the U.S. congressional elections could pave the way for an increase in military and financial aid for Ukraine. Increased support, in his view, could force Putin to reconsider his plans for the war.