Can Ukraine Do Without the Patriot System? What Alternatives Are Being Sought to Defend Against Russian Ballistic Missiles?

Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of Patriot missiles amid intensifying Russian ballistic missile attacks. U.S. supplies are not meeting the needs of Ukraine’s air defense forces, and delays in the delivery of interceptors are forcing Kyiv to seek additional ways to defend its airspace.

At the same time, the problem is not limited to a shortage of ammunition. Ukraine is attempting to secure missiles from European arsenals, developing its own anti-ballistic missile program, FREYA, and expanding cooperation with weapons manufacturers. However, will these solutions be able to reduce dependence on American systems, and how quickly can they be implemented?

24 Channel examined which alternatives to the Patriot system Ukraine is considering, what could strengthen its defense against ballistic missiles, and why even the most effective air defense systems are unable to intercept all Russian missiles – read the full story for details.

Why Ukraine Lacks Patriot Missiles

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy points out that U.S. deliveries of missiles for the Patriot system do not meet the needs of Ukraine’s air defense. Ukraine receives an average of 12 interceptors per month, whereas it used 35 in just one month. In addition, over the course of two weeks, Russia launched more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and the Kyiv region.

The situation is further complicated by delays in approving new shipments in the U.S.. Specifically, this concerns missiles whose purchase has already been funded by Ukraine’s European partners. Since the weapons are manufactured in the United States, U.S. authorization is required for their transfer to third countries.

Patriot Air Defense System / Photo: U.S. Army

“We know that the Pentagon is delaying the delivery of missiles that our partners have already paid for. New shipments of missiles are awaiting the signature of Pete Hagseth (U.S. Secretary of Defense – 24 Channel),”– Zelenskyy noted.

Andriy Tkachuk, a major in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and political analyst, attributes the delays in the delivery of the interceptors to possible political pressure on Kyiv ahead of the negotiations.

“I think this is partly a deliberate delay to force us to make compromises ahead of the ‘ negotiation processes ’ in November and December. It’s difficult for us without anti-ballistic defense, so Ukrainian teams are looking for options to source missiles from across Europe,” he emphasized.

In addition, Tkachuk believes that pressure will not force Ukraine to abandon its principled positions.

“We will not simply make concessions and allow Russia to get what it wants. We did not defend our freedom and independence for that purpose,”he said.

Ukraine Is Seeking Missiles in Europe and the U.S.

While the issue of U.S. permits remains unresolved, Ukraine is trying to secure additional interceptors from European arsenals. The Ministry of Defense has approached Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Poland, and Italy with a proposal to transfer part of their existing stockpiles of air defense missiles.

Defense Minister Yevgeniy Khmaraproposed that allies temporarily transfer to Ukraine at least 10% of their own Patriot and IRIS-T interceptors. In return, Kyiv is prepared to compensate for these transfers with future deliveries, for which contracts have already been signed using an EU loan.

In addition,Ukraine needs mentioned portable anti-aircraft missile systems to counter Russian jet-powered drones.

At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to negotiations with the U.S. side. During a conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he raised the issue of interceptors to counter ballistic missiles, early warning systems for missile attacks, and the operations of Starlink and Starshield.

“I spoke with Marco Rubio. And it was substantive – on issues that matter. I am grateful for his willingness to help and his clear position,”– said the President of Ukraine.

He also emphasized the need to restore other levels of cooperation with the U.S., as it is very important that the supply of interceptors for air defense be resumed.

What can Ukraine use to replace the Patriot

The shortage of interceptors is forcing Ukraine to seek ways to strengthen its air defense without relying solely on American systems. In a comment to 24 Channel, military officer and analyst Oleksandr Musienko noted that other countries, including Taiwan and Saudi Arabia, are also experiencing problems with the availability of the Patriot system.

decline in U.S. inventories has impacted the situation, particularly due to the use of these weapons in the Middle East during the war that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran – a war that cannot finish now, creating problems for the entire world.

It is clear that the Patriot systems are very important – they have proven themselves to be highly effective – but if there aren’t enough of them, what can be done? And this is the main challenge right now in building a new-generation adaptive air defense system– the military analyst emphasized.

Among the possible solutions, he mentioned the purchase of FrenchAster missilesfor the SAMP/T systems, the expanded production of which France supports. Another avenue is The Ukrainian FREYA Ballistic Missile Defense Program, which is being developed jointly with the EU and is intended to serve as the basis for creating Ukraine’s own anti-aircraft missile system.

Important! Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is completed its phase of workin the development of the new FREYA anti-ballistic missile. Kyiv is currently urging ten foreign partners to accelerate the development of the remaining components so that practical testing can begin. This project is intended to serve as a more affordable and independent alternative to the American Patriot systems.

According to Ivan Tymochko, chairman of the Reserve Council of the Ukrainian Army’s Ground Forces, the latest versions of the SAMP/T system could serve as a full-fledged alternative to the Patriot. However, in a comment to 24 Channel, he drew attention to another aspect of dependence on the U.S. – access to intelligence.

SAMP/T NG air defense system / Photo: Thales Group

Here, American Patriot systems are responsible for shooting down enemy ballistic missiles. And once detected, the coordinates are transmitted specifically to these air defense systems. Ballistic missiles travel very fast, and the reaction time is quite short. It is precisely these systems that rely on U.S. intelligence data,” he noted.

At the same time, Ukraine is already receiving a significant portion of its intelligence from European partners and NATO countries.

Why even the Patriot system doesn’t protect against all missiles

Even with a sufficient supply of ammunition, air defense capabilities have physical limitations. A Patriot battery covers a specific sector, not the entire airspace around it, and has a limited supply of interceptors. Therefore, a missile flying outside the coverage area of a particular system may remain out of its reach.

Russia, for its part, is attempting to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense system combined attacks. The simultaneous use of ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, and decoys from various directions forces the defense forces to divide their already limited resources among numerous threats.

That is precisely why countering ballistic missiles is not limited to attempts to intercept them in flight. Additional ways to reduce the threat include damage to Russian launchers, radars, and facilities that manufacture missiles and their components.

Ukraine is expanding its cooperation with the manufacturer of the Patriot system

Another avenue for strengthening air defense is collaboration with the American company Lockheed Martin, which manufactures PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system.

During a meeting between Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mykhailo Drapaty with company representatives, they discussed increasing the supply of interceptors, support for Ukrainian F-16s, and the possibility of repairing and maintaining the fighter jets directly in Ukraine.

The F-16 is part of the Ukrainian Air Force. Ukraine is committed to a long-term partnership with Lockheed Martin. It is important to increase arms deliveries and do everything possible to ensure that as many F-16s as possible are in service and operational in Ukrainian airspace– Khmara emphasized.

Separately, Poland is likely planning to establish a service center for PAC-3 missiles used by Patriot systems. Ukraine is also counting on additional shipments of interceptors from its partners, as the development of infrastructure and long-term defense projects does not solve the immediate problem of missile shortages.

In the long term, the “FREYA” program should also help reduce dependence on American systems. However, it is not expected to be operational until at least 2028, even under the most favorable scenario.