Outlook for 2028: What the European Commission’s New Report Really Means for Ukraine

As is customary, the European Commission presented its annual package of documents on EU enlargementin early November , assessing the progress of the candidate countries. This is not just another piece of paper from Brussels, but a true “X-ray” of the Ukrainian state during the most difficult period in its history.

Despite a full-scale Russian invasion, daily shelling, and attacks on its energy infrastructure, Ukraine is demonstrating a paradox: it is reforming its legal and economic systems while heroically defending itself against the aggressor. However, behind the European Commission’s positive rhetoric lies a clear message: the “green corridor of solidarity” is running out, and tough work at home lies ahead.

What has been achieved, where Kyiv is stalling, whether there is an accession date, and whether Ukraine and Moldova will be treated separately in the negotiation process – read about it in this report by 24 Channel. Laurențiu Plesca,a program officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, helped us make sense of the issue .

Ukraine Among the Group of Leaders on the Path to Membership

The European Commission’s overall verdict on Ukraine is positive: despite the challenges of the war, the country is pushing ahead with reforms, demonstrating impressive strides in digitalization, customs, and the energy sector, while its defense cooperation with the EU is rapidly deepening. However, Brussels is issuing a blunt warning: the current pace is insufficient to meet the Ukrainian government’s ambitious deadline and close the negotiation chapters by the end of 2028.

In assessing the overall geopolitical landscape of EU enlargement, the European Commission has effectively divided the candidate countries into three distinct groups.

• The first group consists of the leading four: Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania, which are confidently forging ahead.
• The second group consists of North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo, where the European integration processes are currently at a standstill.
• In the third group are Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey, where there has been either a clear reversal in reforms or a prolonged political freeze on negotiations.

From a purelytrends in Kyiv's official dossier perspective, however, the years 2025–2026 marked a real breakthrough. In the fall of 2025, the team successfully completed the bilateral screening of legislation. As early as June 2026, negotiations began on the fundamental Cluster 1; in July, the process got underway in Cluster 6 regarding foreign policy; and in October, Clusters 2 and 3 received the green light. Brussels has now officially given the green light to all remaining clusters – they are fully ready to be opened.

According to EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Maternová, this year’s report is extremely positive for our country, as despite the intensification of Russian aggression, Ukraine remains firmly among the top four leaders in the enlargement process and is demonstrating progress in all areas without any setbacks. She also emphasized that since submitting its application in February 2022, the pace of reforms has significantly accelerated, and Ukraine’s level of readiness has improved in 14 areas at once.

As I say, even a hybrid car is still a car, so limited progress is still progress. In other words, there has been no regression in any of the areas or sections,” Ms. Maternova emphasized.

Where Ukraine Is Really Stepping on the Gas

Kyiv holds its strongest positions in areas where the results surprise even a demanding Brussels. First and foremost is the digital leap. Ukraine isn’t just keeping up – it continues to set European trends in e-governance (just reread that sentence – it’s truly impressive).

As of early 2026, we officially joined the EU’s single roaming zone, and the Ukrainian "Diya" ecosystem and Transparent Reconstruction Platforms received the highest rating from the European Commission as effective tools for combating corruption risks.

The security sector is no less impressive. Kyiv has almost completely aligned its foreign policy with the European vector. Today, Ukraine is no longer merely a recipient of aid but a key contributor of unique military and technological expertise in cybersecurity, countering hybrid threats, and developing a modern defense-industrial complex.

The work of the anti-corruption triad – NABU, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), and the High Anti-Corruption Court – has earned special praise from the European Commission. Large-scale investigations in the defense and energy sectors And, most importantly, actual convictions of high-ranking officials prove that these institutions are withstanding the trials of war and are capable of functioning under any pressure.

At the same time, a significant breakthrough has been achieved in the energy sector. The adoption of the necessary legislative package and the appointment of a new market operator have put the Ukrainian power grid on the home stretch toward full and irreversible integration with the European energy market.

The “dark side” of the reforms: where Kyiv is stalling

Behind the impressive numerical successes lies a clear list of systemic failures, which the European Commission documents without sugarcoating. First and foremost, Brussels is concerned about the slowdown in the Verkhovna Rada: the proportion of high-quality government bills has fallen to one-quarter, while the flood of parliamentary initiatives is creating chaos and eroding the quality of legislation.

The situation in the judicial system is no less alarming, where the staffing shortage has reached a critical level with over 2,500 vacant judgeships, and most of the 10 priority reforms related to the rule of law have effectively stalled.

However, Brussels is reacting most strongly to the pressure on the anti-corruption system and the delays in reforming law enforcement agencies. The NABU and the SAPO are still forced to fend off media attacks and legal proceedings from other law enforcement agencies; investigations into members of parliament still depend on the approval of the Prosecutor General (or his acting counterpart), and the loophole allowing cases to be closed due to “expiration of the pre-trial investigation period” remains untouched.

At the same time, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) continues to cling to investigations into business cases – which are outside its purview but highly “marginal” – and to its monopoly on wiretapping, while reforms of the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) and the Economic Security Bureau are stalling, and in the media sphere, the European Commission is already directly calling for the dismantling of Government Funding for the "Yedyni Novyny" Telethon in favor of full-fledged media pluralism and support for “Suspilne,” rather than pandering to “their own.”

Economic Front: Resilience on the Verge of Exhaustion

On the economic front, the European Commission acknowledges Ukraine’s macrofinancial resilience: thanks to the National Bank’s strict policies and support from partners through international programs, gold and foreign exchange reserves have been maintained at an impressive level of over $51 billion.

However,Russia's devastating strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, unfortunately, are taking their toll – real GDP growth has slowed to a modest 1.8%, and the current account deficit has reached a critical 15.6% due to the forced, massive import of electricity.

The main obstacles for Ukrainian businesses remain not only a broken energy sector and high tariffs, but also an acute labor crisis. Mobilization, combined with forced migration involving millions of people, has drained the labor market in Ukraine, turning the shortage of workers into the main obstacle to economic recovery.

From Political Gestures to “Manual Control”: A New Format for European Integration

The 2026 report finally drew a line under the era of political promises. Brussels and Kyiv are shifting to a pragmatic “manual control” of the process.

The main indicator of this shift is the creation of a joint task force in October 2026. The European Commission refuses to wait a whole year for the next bureaucratic report and will now monitor the implementation of fundamental reforms in real time.

At the same time, the European Commission is changing the rules of the game for all candidate countries. The main innovation is the concept of gradual integration: countries are allowed to enjoy real EU benefits even before signing the final accession treaty.

Full participation in Euro-roaming starting January 1, 2026 has already become the first successful example for Ukraine. Next in line is the joint integration of energy markets, transportation networks, digital services, and public procurement.

2028 – A Real Deadline or an Ambitious Test for Kyiv

The first half of 2027 will be a decisive test for Ukraine, as Brussels expects a final report on the fundamental benchmarks (IBAR) in the first cluster.

According to the European Commission’s baseline schedule, Kyiv must complete this task in April–May in order to move through the first seven negotiation chapters – ranging from education and science to foreign policy – over the course of the year. However, officials in Bankova are setting the bar even higher: they expect to complete the IBAR as early as March and finalize several chapters by mid-2027. Ukraine’s individual roadmap grants it this right if reforms proceed ahead of schedule.

This accelerated pace is part of a broader goal: the European Commission has officially acknowledged that the Ukrainian government’s target of concluding all accession negotiations by the end of 2028 is entirely realistic, provided Kyiv maintains its momentum.

But Brussels immediately issues a stern caveat: the 2028 political deadline depends not on laws that look “good” on paper, but on their actual implementation in the areas of the rule of law, the independence of the anti-corruption system, and the protection of national minorities.

At the same time, Brussels highlights a key pragmatic nuance: the conclusion of negotiations in 2028 does not mean automatic accession “the very next day.” Next, Ukraine will face the stage of preparing and ratifying the treaty in all the national parliaments of EU member states.

To safeguard against a rollback of reforms after accession, Brussels is introducing enhanced safeguard mechanisms for the first time, which it will test on Montenegro and will certainly apply to Kyiv. That is why the European Commission is not specifying a clear date for accession – from now on, it is not politics that will decide everything, but the speed and quality of reform implementation.

Brussels’ homework assignment for 2027: less politics, more tough reforms

The main conclusion from the European Commission’s new report is simple: no one has revoked the political credit of trust, but the “green corridor of unconditional support” is running out. Brussels expects not just declarations from Kyiv, but a surgical overhaul of the system. Therefore, 2027 will be a year of uncompromising, pragmatic work.

First and foremost is the judicial system, where more than 2,500 vacant positions must be filled urgently and the vetting of sitting judges must be accelerated. Brussels insists on involving independent international experts in the selection and vetting of the membership of key judicial bodies – without this, trust in the justice system will not be restored.

An equally critical front is the protection of the anti-corruption triad. To ensure that the NABU and the SAP are not hindered, they must be granted full autonomy in investigating top politicians without having to go through the Prosecutor General, and loopholes in the Code of Civil Procedure that allow cases to be closed due to “statutes of limitations” must be eliminated.

At the same time, the European Commission is calling for an end to the “military freeze” on the civil service and a return to open competitions instead of handpicked appointments. A major overhaul also awaits the security agencies: Kyiv is being urged to push through the reform of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), purge the National Police and the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) through transparent performance evaluations, and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is being asked to permanently relinquish its inappropriate control over business, focusing solely on counterintelligence.

Finally – the energy sector. To fully integrate with the European market, Ukraine will have to move away from manual regulation: it must lift price caps, eliminate quasi-subsidies, and guarantee the regulator’s absolute independence from political influence – while simultaneously providing targeted protection for vulnerable citizens.

Will Ukraine and Moldova Be Split in the Negotiation Track?

The question of a potential separation of Kyiv and Chisinau has been hanging in the air ever since Hungary has begun systematically blocking Ukraine's progress, automatically holding Moldova hostage as well. However, the issue at hand is not political stalling, but rather a difference in the pace of reform implementation.

According to Politico, which cites draft documents from the European Commission, Brussels is calling on Kyiv to “urgently and significantly accelerate the pace of reforms in the area of the rule of law.”

The European Commission’s projections indicate a possible gap between Chisinau and Kyiv: by 2027, Moldova could potentially close more than 20 negotiation chapters, while Ukraine’s target currently stands at only 7 chapters.

Since the closure of each chapter is based strictly on merit, this could lead to a formal divergence between the two countries. However, this plan is not final – if Kyiv significantly accelerates its efforts, the deadlines will be revised

. Analysts emphasize that if Moldova pulls ahead, it will be more of a benefit than a setback for Ukraine, as its neighbor’s success will clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the EU’s enlargement mechanism itself.

As Laurențiu Plesca, a program officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, noted in a comment to 24 Channel, being in the same package as Kyiv has given Chișinău a powerful political boost, but the real separation will take place next year during the closure of specific chapters.

Laurentiu Plesca

Program Officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States

Giving Moldova the opportunity to move forward more quickly will strengthen Ukraine’s position rather than weaken it, since a candidate that closes chapters at record speed proves that reforms are rewarded and that the enlargement process works.

Moreover, this is a direct matter of our security on the southwestern border. The expert highlights important security considerations and the fact that Brussels, by assigning “homework,” is in fact taking on no less significant obligations, upon which the future of the entire Union will depend.

Laurențiu Plesca

Program Officer, German Marshall Fund of the United States

This is also a security issue. A Moldova firmly anchored in the EU is a secure flank for Ukraine. If Moldovans go to the polls in 2028 and 2029 feeling that Europe has not kept its promise, Moscow will exploit this disappointment to bring a pro-Russian government back to power, and this will become a problem not only for Chisinau but also for Ukraine’s security.

Thus, European integration remains a two-way process, in which the responsibilities of those being monitored and those overseeing the process are entirely comparable.