Russia Without Russians – A Very Real Scenario: An Interview with Tsymbalyuk on Panic in the Kremlin, Attacks on Oil Refineries, and Alleged Terrorist Attacks in Moscow

Russia is trying to exploit the evacuation of Ukrainians from the occupied town of Oleshky for its own interests, while talk of a possible ceasefire in the Kherson region raises many questions. Meanwhile, Sergey Lavrov’s behavior at the G20 summit, the strikes on Russian oil refineries, and the sense of unease in Moscow show that the situation is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin.

Journalist and blogger Roman Tsymbaliuk, in an exclusive interviewfor 24 Channel, Roman Tsymbaliuk explained what role Melania Trump might allegedly play in the evacuation, what the U.S. actually wants from the negotiations, and why, if Russia weakens, even China could make territorial claims against it.

The Evacuation from Oleshky and Melania Trump’s Role

Roman, the Oleshky evacuation did take place after all. I’m actually surprised that the Russians held the ceasefire for so long. In terms of public relations, it seems they’ve failed as well. Fifteen buses headed for Ukraine, and another four – reportedly empty – went to Russia. Meanwhile, the Russians brought in about 50 propaganda journalists, but they failed to present the situation as they had planned.

How serious is this failure for Russia, and why did it ultimately make concessions to Trump’s demands? As I understand it, was this just a PR stunt for him?

Let’s remember, however, that the initiative to evacuate Ukrainians from the occupied part of Ukraine belongs to the Ukrainian government, the president, and the Ukrainian state. It’s fundamentally important to emphasize this, because everyone else – including the Pope and even Melania Trump – is merely a mediator in this case.

In any case, as strange as it may sound, if Melania were to receive the Nobel Peace Prize for this action, there’s a risk that her husband – that is, Donald Trump – would kick her out of the house. At the very least, she deserves such an honor more in this situation.

Although I don’t know what her personal role was in organizing the evacuation – or whether they simply used her name – I consider this story a complete success.

It’s clear that the Russians were pursuing their own goals. They wanted to show that they could refrain from firing, and in this way give Donald Trump a nod: as if to say, “We, too, are ready to meet you halfway.” But I’m not sure we need to compete over the number of buses.

It’s clear that people from the occupied territory of Ukraine want to return under the Ukrainian flag. But when the discussion turns to how many buses went to Ukraine, how many went to Russia, and how many people returned via Belarus, we risk shifting the focus.

What I mean is that in such a discussion, we seem to be trying to prove that the population of Oleshky is pro-Ukrainian, that this is occupied territory. But no matter how much others may call Putin a humanist, the horrific, inhuman, and immoral story associated with mass killings arose exclusively...

Ukraine welcomed those evacuated from Oleshky / Photo: 24 Channel

Roman, I’m sorry, but I disagree. This is very telling: even under occupation, people aren’t falling for Russian propaganda and don’t want to go to Russia. They understand everything. That’s why it doesn’t matter how many buses there are – that’s the measure we should be using.

Okay, that’s important. But by entering into this kind of discussion, we ourselves are calling obvious things into question. All right, to make it easier and more pleasant for you, let’s assume that these buses were used to hold a new referendum – a real referendum on where people want to go: to Ukraine or not.

But when I say we shouldn’t measure things by buses, I mean something else. Of course, the journalists documented everything. The problem is that we seem to be looking for additional arguments to prove that this is Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, and not, as Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov claims, the Russian city of Oleshky. He deserves a noose around his neck.

That’s what I’m talking about. We must always return to the essence of what happened. And in this situation, no one is asking for the opinion of the people who live there.

I especially liked the reaction of the Z-propagandists, who describe the evacuees as “looters,” “snipers,” and the like. One can only imagine how they treat the population of the occupied territories. By the way, this is important information for us, which we need to convey to Trump as well.

Remember, he attended the G20 summit in Atlanta, if I’m not mistaken. And there he said that Russia cannot accept the unprecedented discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. Now let’s look at what’s happening in the territory that the Russians, for some reason, call their own.

They themselves are demonstrating how they treat the people who live there. People are effectively finding themselves in a discriminatory environment because of the Russian language. There are quite a few important points here.

I’ve seen reports that during the ceasefire, the Russians brought in more weapons and equipment. But there’s another important aspect: if anyone thinks our army wasn’t doing anything during that time, that’s the wrong way to look at it. We just don’t talk about it.

The fact remains: if the commander in charge of this section of the front didn’t use the ceasefire to bring in ammunition and everything else needed, then he’s a bad commander. And in this sector, we mainly have marines; they have good commanders there. And the key question now is: what happens next?

Full interview with Tsymbalyuk: watch the video

Is an extension of the “ceasefire” in the Kherson region possible, and where are the negotiations headed?

On Russian broadcasts, I’ll tell you, there’s great hope that this ceasefire will last. And it really could continue under one condition – if the Russian dictator issues the appropriate order. The American TV channel Newsmax, which was reporting from the scene, says that Ukrainian and Russian officials believe Melania Trump could play a role in extending this ceasefire within the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. What is the role of an individual in history? Is Melania really not an independent player, and if Putin doesn’t want it, will the ceasefire not be extended at all?

It’s a franchise – that is, simply a shell in which a name is being used. Some people advertise products, and in this case, Melania Trump is advertising the ceasefire. The U.S. government is behind this. And once again: I’ve already said this.

There are hopes in the swamps, and there’s also a chance the ceasefire will be extended. But if the ceasefire isn’t extended, it will be yet another slap in the face from Putin to Donald Trump.

He’s being asked to stop publicly gushing over men’s buttocks and dancing at rallies – perhaps campaign rallies. Perhaps the first and second points are somewhat related. Trump should focus on international policy, geopolitics, and the U.S. economy. So there is a chance. We’ll find out more soon.

It’s clear that betting on the continuation of the ceasefire isn’t a gamble. But in terms of probability, the chance isn’t zero – though it’s still closer to zero than to the opposite.

I think that’s really the case. Meanwhile, Lavrov has made quite a few statements. It took him three days through the fields and two days through the woods to get there. He says there’s been no breakthrough in relations with the U.S. So why was Poland invited? It’s as if Lavrov is calling the shots there. And why was Lavrov himself invited in the first place? Formally, Russia is still a member of the G20, unfortunately. But they could have just replaced it with Poland. And all his nonsense about how no one wanted to be photographed with him. He’s being thoroughly mocked everywhere. I remember how they laughed at him back in India in 2022. You see, Russian representatives aren’t invited to Europe anymore.

Yeah, yeah. Donnie is working on this and thinks that this way he’ll be able to bring Russia into a constructive dialogue. But in reality, the horse is acting as if they’ve taken the reins off and let it run wild.

What does that mean? He came to the U.S. and stated outright that we don’t care about the diesel deal. We understand perfectly well that it’s difficult for Donald to sell the diesel we sent him. But that’s his problem. He’s saying outright that relations between our countries can’t improve.

There’s a whole host of contradictions, and this is a key point. Essentially, it was stated: “We don’t really value your diesel deal, Donnie.” Did you want to lower prices in the U.S.? Well, they did go down, but not as much as you’d hoped. And, as it seems to me, the Reich is already beginning to adapt to the changes in the U.S. He has heard time and again that Donald Trump is called a “lame duck,” and other insulting remarks directed at him are being made.

But you see, Lavrov was asked about the negotiations. And here’s the most interesting part – talks in Abu Dhabi. First of all, he isn’t directly involved. I mean, Lavrov – other people are working on that. But the wording he used is quite harsh.

I’ll quote Lavrov from the transcript: “It is unacceptable to us that Ukraine poses a military threat to Russia’s legitimate security interests.” You can interpret that however you like – in one direction or the other. This demonstrates once again that they continue to play the so-called “poker face.” As if to say, nothing terrible is happening, Donny will surely save our oil refineries, and somehow everything will work out.

At the same time, the lower echelons of the Russian propaganda machine are saying outright: we’re at war with Ukraine, and Europe is backing it.

So it’s illogical to count on Donald and the Americans to somehow keep everyone in check. They’ll have to negotiate with Europe and Ukraine. Let me give these Russian scoundrels a hint: Ukraine is Europe. What else are the Russians waiting for?

They say they don’t like Zelenskyy, who keeps talking about the growing number of long-range missiles at Ukraine’s disposal. These will be used to attack targets on Russian territory, particularly in Siberia – that’s what Sergey Lavrov says. He’s clearly sensing something with his rear end – the very thing Donald Trump is so fond of in the U.S.

Such sentiments don’t exactly bode well for preparations for the talks. What’s the point of all this? While Zakharova continues her public dance to “Kalinka-Malinka” – whether negotiations will take place or not, and where exactly they will be held – their actual subject remains unclear.

And I think there may be some changes here. But again, that’s not within Lavrov’s purview. If you look at the situation soberly, it becomes clear why he isn’t participating in these negotiations.

Speaking of European participation, by the way. Ushakov one moment says Europe can join, and the next he denies it. Peskov declares: “Let Stubb, Starmer, Macron, and Merz call – we’ll pick up the phone.” And then Ushakov says, “Europe can buy a ticket, but it won’t sit at the negotiating table.” In other words, they themselves don’t even understand what they want yet. One moment they’re protesting, the next they’re issuing ultimatums, and then they’re calling for phone calls. There’s a certain lack of confidence on all sides here.

You see, regarding Europe’s participation, Ushakov himself has already adjusted his position. At first he said: come at your own expense, take a look. But now they’re saying they’re not opposed to it. And the very way the issue is framed on Russian media – namely, that Europe isn’t being allowed to the negotiating table – is incorrect.

We must explain to everyone that Ukraine is Europe and that we, in fact, represent Europe in these negotiations.

It’s clear that with Americans like these – who will remain this way until November 3 – we don’t have long to wait – just two or three days. In the swamps, they say in situations like this: “We’ll raise an eyebrow.” Of course, it would be good if representatives of the European continent were also sitting at the table. That would make things easier for us. But if they’re not there, it doesn’t change anything, because we keep talking about the form, while no one is talking about the substance of the negotiations.

Although these rounds of negotiations, one after another – with Putin and others – indicate that they were discussing something else, not just the Pechenegs. Although the story about the Pechenegs seems to have been debunked by everyone except The Times.

That’s right. And the Financial Times reported that since 2014, Starmer had been told only stories about coups and other events of that period, including what Putin calls “Dignity Street.” But should Europeans be making these calls? Tykhyi says these were coordinated calls. The Norwegian and the Finn were conveying Zelenskyy’s position. In other words, if that’s the case, then everything is clear. At the same time, Tykhyi emphasizes that Ukraine does not approve of unauthorized and unexplained calls made without coordination.

Look, Zelenskyy was in Oslo, and our foreign minister was there as well; following the visit, quite a few joint events took place. I don’t understand this fuss in Europe over the fact that someone called someone else. They called – so they called. It seems that through our European partners, Ukraine’s position has been conveyed to Putin. It boils down to this: we’re ready to discuss territories and other issues related to de-escalation.

Note this: there’s nothing concrete in these statements. We’re ready to discuss territories. Of course we’re ready. There were times when some of our prominent military commanders spoke very actively about Crimea and even advised stocking up on a towel, just in case.

I, by the way, stocked up just in case, but still. What I mean is that for some reason, some people consider such rhetoric from Ukraine to be almost tantamount to capitulation. This is completely untrue.

Incidentally, even the Russians themselves – those who understand the situation on the front lines at least a little – are writing about this. So we talked – and we talked. If something positive comes of it, then why not? And if this is just another attempt to discuss something and it comes to nothing, then in time everyone will simply forget about this phone call, as if it never happened.

It’s important that FinnishPresident Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Stere calledcalled Vladimir Putin to convey Ukraine’s position on the negotiations and ending the war. According to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Georgy Tikhiy, the call was coordinated with Kyiv, and the leaders conveyed the messages requested by Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump, Strikes on Oil Refineries, and Chaos at Russian Airports

You say that in two days, America will already be a different place. Even people like Pete Hagseth could be the first to face impeachment. But shortly before that, Trump stated: “I think we’re very close to reaching an agreement on this issue,” referring to the Russian-Ukrainian war. He hadn’t said anything like that before. He also met with the recently released Steve Gabard, explained why he hadn’t imposed sanctions, and helped him return home. So, is Trump once again promising to end the war in two to four hours?

You see, Trump’s words don’t carry much weight, so there’s no point in overinterpreting them. First, the sanctions generally remain in effect thanks to the U.S. government. Second, Donald Trump claims that Gabbard told him that in Russia, they’re laughing at the sanctions.

Of course, when this grown man was tortured, mocked, and subjected to all the horrors practiced in Russian prisons – especially given that he’s an American – the Russians probably weren’t even thinking about sanctions. They were simply enjoying the process. But this torture and mockery are, in fact, personal sanctions against this man.

So I’d like to say to Donald: if people are laughing at the sanctions, then you probably shouldn’t lift them – on the contrary, you should tighten them if you want to make a point.

As for Trump’s remark that there’s a chance for a deal, oddly enough, he’s most likely right. In other words, a certain behind-the-scenes process is actively underway. That’s undeniable. Whether it will lead to anything concrete – I don’t know. But Donald repeats this phrase roughly every two or three days, not weeks.

But what’s the result of this? There’s a de-escalation in the Kherson region. Presumably, the main indicator of a possible agreement will be whether or not the ceasefire in the Kherson region is extended. At the same time, a good indicator is that we’ve resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries. And I also like what’s happening at their airports. Queues, attacks – Moscow’s airfields are constantly out of service.

The effect is multifaceted. You see, the airspace isn’t closed, which means we’re not done yet. It’s nice that An air raid siren was sounded for the first time at Sheremetyevo. I always joke that this signal is probably sounding in Terminal Vnukovo-3, designated for Vladimir Putin. I’m sure there’s an air raid siren there, too.

This is, in fact, an invitation to Putin to divide the world together with Trump and Xi.

We need to keep up this campaign involving air traffic control centers until there’s a ceasefire or until Russia closes its airspace.

Let me remind everyone: flying from Moscow is dangerous. There is a corresponding notice from the ICAO and a public statement from Zelenskyy. So if someone shoots down a plane there, our drone hits something, or an air defense missile makes a mistake, there’s no need to take offense.

We have warned that it’s better not to fly there right now. It’s clear that for Russia, closing the Moscow air hub would effectively mean the death of its transit, transportation, and logistics systems. Therefore, no matter how many planes are lost there, they won’t take such a step.

Zelenskyy flew to Turkey and met with Erdogan. There’s already talk of the maritime issue. Ukraine wants to involve Turkey and Europe in negotiations to end the war. Could Turkey serve as a venue for negotiations or a prisoner exchange? And is it realistic right now, given the current escalation, to achieve a maritime ceasefire?

Anything is possible. It’s clear that Turkey, as a country with a key strategic position in the Black Sea, is an important player. It has a powerful merchant and military fleet and is suffering losses due to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Turkey also sometimes faces difficulties transporting goods subject to sanctions.

Quite a few problems have arisen. After all, many ships have been attacked, and there have been fatalities among those sailing under the Turkish flag. Moreover, this has happened in both Russian and Ukrainian ports. My assumption is that, since no one is currently planning to provide us with an unlimited number of “Tomahawk” missiles, we will agree to various proposals for a ceasefire – whether sectoral or otherwise. But not because we agree with the occupation of 20% of Ukraine’s territory, but because this is a matter of our capabilities.

Regarding the Turkish issue, I am confident that Zelenskyy’s position will be somewhat similar to the one he took in his conversation with Trump regarding Russian oil refineries. If you agree that the Russians will stop striking Ukrainian ports, then we won’t attack their ports. That’s probably the only option. They’ve already tried to force us to stop striking Russian oil refineries. We paused briefly, and then got back to work. We can do it again, as some of our grandfathers used to say.

Warnings of Terror Attacks in Moscow and Risks for Russia

Romo, as we’re talking, some interesting news is coming in. An evacuation was ordered in Tsaritsyno, Moscow, following a warning from the U.S. Embassy about a terrorist threat. An organ concert was in progress there, with ten minutes remaining until the end. The roads leading to the museum-reserve have been blocked off; taxi drivers aren’t being allowed in, and traffic police checkpoints are set up at the entrances. According to reports, the U.S. Embassy warned Moscow about a possible incident involving mass casualties. What’s going on? Are these really security measures, or is Putin himself creating this situation? He does love stories like “Sahara” and “Crocus.”

You see, the last time a warning like this was issued was right before the terrorist attack at “Crocus City Hall.” Back then, Islamists killed over a hundred people. We, of course, weren’t particularly upset about it, but usually, when it comes to fundamentalist movements, the exchange of information between countries is quite active. And Putin should probably ask himself why it’s the Americans, rather than his own intelligence agencies, who are informing him about this.

After all, he has the FSB and other agencies that are supposed to handle this.

They don’t have the time! They’re busy with internal squabbles, monitoring the internet, keeping tabs on Russians, and on Putin himself.

I think they’ve thrown all their resources into persecuting dissidents. It’s easier to identify them: just read through social media posts from the last few years, and it’s already clear who can be the next to be locked up for a new “medal.” But dealing with threats like these is much more difficult.

You see, the war against Ukraine has led the Russians to lose sight of things a bit. They’ve forgotten that a huge number of players on this planet envision a beautiful Russia of the future – one without Russians. And I didn’t mention China by accident, but it’s not just about China.

If Russia begins to fall apart, many will make territorial claims.

So did they really receive a warning about a possible terrorist attack?

There is a standard protocol. When it comes to a potential terrorist attack against the civilian population, it is considered proper to warn of the threat. I, for one, agree. It’s just strange when the U.S. government warns Russian terrorists that an attack is being planned by terrorists from a different group.

As a reminder, the U.S.Embassy warnedissued a warning about a credible threat of a terrorist attack with mass casualties at the Tsaritsyno Museum-Reserve in Moscow and urged people to avoid the area on October 31. That evening, the museum was closed for technical reasons, the entrance was blocked off, and law enforcement officers arrived on the scene.

How could this have happened? Let me repeat: communication channels between Washington and Moscow have been quite clear since the Cold War. I think this contact continues to this day, and it was through this channel that the relevant information was conveyed. If something happens there, we certainly won’t be sad. Speaking of Moscow, that is.

No, there’s no reason to. They’re so happy when Ukrainians are killed, and they post emojis with champagne. But overall – closed airports, panic, lines, terror alerts – what kind of atmosphere does all this create in Moscow? When Moscow runs out of gas, the panic will intensify, people won’t be able to fly anywhere – that’s when it will all begin. How do you assess this situation? If similar strikes spread to other facilities, as happened with the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery, Putin will be in deep trouble.

This whole strategy is quite clear. You see, even Lavrov didn’t mention missiles capable of reaching Siberia for no reason. That’s a good sign: they’re starting to sense that it won’t be long before things get much hotter for them. But here’s why we need to take a broader view: power in Russia isn’t shaped with the participation of the population. So even if some kind of upheaval begins there – particularly in Moscow – it won’t necessarily force the Russian leadership to change its policies.

It’s not a certainty, but Moscow is definitely key. And you know, after a long hiatus, the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery has caught fire again. And in Bashkortostan, not far from Ufa, something also happened there after our drones arrived.

All of this gives us cause for optimism and lifts our spirits. If something similar were to happen in Moscow, I’m sure the mood among Ukrainians would improve as well. And when things are dark and cold, a positive attitude is already half the battle when it comes to achieving results in this war.