"Who's Lying – Putin or Kushner?": Tizengausen on Russia's Oil Crisis and the US's Strange Demands

Vladimir Putin insists that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are causing almost no damage, even though the Russian economy is facing increasingly acute fuel and logistics problems. At the same time, representatives of the Donald Trump administration are demanding that Ukraine cease its attacks on oil refineries, while Washington continues to seek new agreements with the Kremlin.

In his analysis for 24 Channel, political expert Boris Tizengausen examined the contradictions between Moscow’s statements and the actions of American negotiators. He also discussed the losses to the Russian economy, the Kremlin’s new sabotage plans in Europe, Russia’s dependence on China, and the deepening of its cooperation with Iran and North Korea.

The Paradox of U.S. Demands

Jared Kushner once again demanded that Volodymyr Zelenskyy completely halt strikes on Russian oil refineries. According to Axios, Donald Trump’s son-in-law joined the meeting in Oslo remotely and insisted on this quite forcefully.

The Ukrainian president proposed a different approach: Kyiv is ready to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries if Moscow also stops targeting Ukraine’s energy sector. However, the Russian side shows no willingness to adhere to this principle of reciprocity.

The U.S. demands appear particularly controversial in light of Putin’s latest statements. At the Eastern Economic Forum on September 3, he claimed that only 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity remained to be repaired. And on October 15, at the “Business Russia” forum, he stated that Ukrainian drones had hit some targets, but nothing significant had happened.

There’s one thing I don’t understand: who’s lying – Trump’s son-in-law or Putin? Or maybe both? You could show Kushner this quote and say: Look, Putin himself said that nothing significant happened. So what’s the problem? Why all the fuss, then?
– Tizengausen remarked.

Despite the Russian dictator’s claims, Washington continues to view Ukrainian strikes on the oil industry as one of the obstacles to reaching an agreement with Moscow. At the same time, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in St. Petersburg to discuss the latest U.S. proposals with Putin.

Tizengausen drew attention to the American negotiator’s behavior. Even during previous meetings, Witkoff had shown excessive deference to Putin, and after the talks in Alaska, questions arose as to how accurately he had conveyed the positions of both sides.

The new meeting also began with compliments. Witkoff thanked the Russian dictator and called him a humanist, placing him on par with Trump, whom, according to Witkoff, Putin often describes in a similar way.

When I first saw Witkoff’s meeting with Putin, I thought Trump would immediately remove him from this post. It was like a fan meeting her idol. Witkoff even bowed when greeting Putin. “It’s Putin who should be bowing to you, not the other way around,”
the political expert emphasized.

The United States has significant leverage to exert economic pressure on Russia, particularly through sanctions against its energy sector. However, the current administration is taking a different approach, attempting to encourage the Kremlin to negotiate by easing certain restrictions.

One such decision was to resume the import of Russian diesel fuel into the U.S. However, the White House’s expectation of a significant drop in energy prices has not yet materialized.

Russian diesel didn’t save Trump

Global oil prices have begun to rise again due to the escalating situation in the Middle East. According to data cited by Tizengausen, Brent crude was trading at approximately $110 per barrel, reaching its highest level in the past five months.

Threats by the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabian oil facilities and reports of tanker explosions in the Strait of Hormuz created additional tension. The risks of disruptions to oil supplies had a stronger impact on the market than Washington’s decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy resources.

Putin’s “blood diesel” did not save Donald Trump. Oil prices on the global market are rising again and have already reached their highest levels in the past five months. The risks outweighed the easing of sanctions on Russian supplies. Everyone understood this, except Donald Trump,
– Tizengausen stated.

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that the first tanker carrying diesel fuel for the U.S. is being prepared. The vessel has a carrying capacity of approximately 40,000 metric tons, although the actual volume of fuel in the first shipment had not been specified at the time of the announcement.

Moscow expects that the first shipment will be followed by others. For Russian propaganda, this provides an opportunity to portray the resumption of exports to the U.S. as a major achievement and proof of improving relations between Putin and Trump.

Tiesenhausen ironically compared the future coverage of these shipments to Soviet television reports, in which shipments of goods to friendly countries were accompanied by solemn statements about historic agreements. At the same time, however, the Russian oil industry is facing far more serious difficulties at home.

Russian Ports Are Losing Cargo

Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure are affecting more than just fuel production and storage. Significant problems are arising in port logistics, through which Russia handles the import of goods and the export of its own products.

According to reports cited by Tizengausen, drone attacks have effectively halted container imports through Novorossiysk. Last year, this port handled over a million containers, but due to security risks, Chinese carriers have begun to abandon this route.

Part of the cargo flow has been redirected to St. Petersburg. However, even the Baltic ports are not out of reach for Ukrainian drones: the Leningrad Oblast recently suffered one of the largest drone strikes of the war, particularly targeting port infrastructure.

The drone attacks completely halted container imports through Novorossiysk. Chinese carriers simply left there, partially shifting to St. Petersburg. But where else? Drones struck St. Petersburg as well. So much for Putin’s “nothing significant,”
the expert noted.

According to sources from the Russian newspaper “Kommersant” that he cited, in September the ports of the Azov and Black Seas lost 95% of their cargo traffic. The largest logistics hubs, including Novorossiysk, Taman, and Tuapse, faced a sharp decline in business volume.

Companies began sending employees on unpaid leave and cutting staff. Monthly losses to the region’s budgets and businesses, according to estimates, exceed 200 billion rubles.

The scale of the problems has forced Veniamin Kondratyev, governor of the Krasnodar Krai, to appeal to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for state support.

The situation is further complicated by a decline in oil refining. According to reports cited by Tizengausen, output at Russian refineries has fallen to its lowest level in the past twenty years, creating the risk of fuel shortages in the domestic market.

Additional costs for restoring damaged facilities are placing a strain on the state budget. Russian authorities are forced to seek resources simultaneously to finance the war, support the economy, and repair critical infrastructure.

Russia Is Depleting Its Gold Reserves

Problems with revenue and spending are also reflected in Moscow’s financial decisions. According to data cited by Tizengauzen, the Russian Central Bank has been selling gold for the tenth consecutive month, and its gold reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 2019.

The funds are being used to cover the budget deficit, which could significantly exceed the Russian government’s initial estimates. The journalist cited estimates suggesting that this year’s actual budget shortfall could be roughly twice as large as previously planned.

Tiesenhausen contrasted this information with Putin’s public statements about the negligible impact of Ukrainian strikes. After all, the decline in oil refining, port problems, and the need to draw down reserves are putting increasing pressure on the aggressor state’s economy.

Putin stubbornly denies all of this. Output at oil refineries has fallen to a twenty-year low; the Central Bank has been selling gold for ten months; and reserves are at their lowest level since 2019. And all of this is part of the narrative that “they hit something, but nothing significant,”
” noted the political expert.

China is also taking advantage of Russia’s economic difficulties, continuing to purchase Russian energy resources on terms more favorable to itself. Moscow is becoming increasingly dependent on markets that remain accessible to its exports following Western sanctions.

China receives gas at a discount

Russia has increased the gas discount for China to a record 56%. According to data cited by Tizengausen, last year it stood at approximately 41%, meaning it has risen by 15 percentage points.

For Beijing, this is an opportunity to obtain energy resources more cheaply by taking advantage of the Kremlin’s limited ability to sell gas to other major buyers. Russia, in turn, is forced to agree to increasingly less favorable terms in order to maintain its export revenues.

The discount for China is a very good indicator of how things are going for Putin. The worse his situation, the bigger the discount he gives China. Judging by the fact that it has increased by 15 percentage points, things aren’t going very well for him,
Tizengausen explained.

At the same time, Washington is considering the possibility of easing sanctions against Russian gas supplies to Europe as one option for making economic concessions to the Kremlin. However, the implementation of such a scenario also depends on European countries, which, since the start of the full-scale war, have made significant efforts to reduce their energy dependence on Russia.

Tizengausen drew attention to the contradiction between Russian propaganda and Moscow’s actual position in its relations with Beijing. The Kremlin constantly talks about threats from NATO and Europe, even though it is cooperation with China that is creating an ever-greater economic dependence.

Russians need not fear that Europe or NATO will come and take everything away from them. No one is going to take anything away. Putin himself will give everything to China for next to nothing. And not just to China,
the expert noted ironically.

Another important issue remains the price of Russian diesel for the U.S. The terms of these supplies may reveal just how economically beneficial the new agreements are for Moscow and what benefits the American market stands to gain from them.

Putin Is Planning Sabotage in Europe

Russian intelligence agencies may intensify their campaign of sabotage and subversion within NATO countries. The Wall Street Journal reported on Vladimir Putin’s decision to this effect, citing three European sources familiar with the findings of an investigation into Russian activities.

Among the examples of such operations, the publication cited the attack that took place on August 5 in Leipzig. New actions may be directed against infrastructure and other targets in European countries.

Sources attribute the intensification of the sabotage campaign to the Russian military’s failure to achieve the expected successes on the front lines. Ukraine continues to strike Russian rear facilities, and Kyiv refuses to end the war on the Kremlin’s terms.

Tiesenhausen believes that Russia will use hybrid attacks to pressure countries that support Ukraine. At the same time, routine diplomatic statements and condemnations of such actions are insufficient to force Moscow to abandon further sabotage operations.

He cites the use of frozen Russian assets to fund military aid to Ukraine as one possible deterrent. Such a mechanism would make it possible to directly link the Kremlin’s new sabotage operations to economic losses for Russia.

If the Russians carry out a sabotage operation somewhere in Europe, they’d pay for a new shipment of weapons for Ukraine out of their own frozen funds. That’s a great alternative. Every attack should lead to an increase in military aid to Kyiv,
– Tizengausen suggested.

European countries face legislative and political constraints on how they can respond to such operations. Increasing funding for Ukraine’s defense, however, could be a way to inflict tangible losses on Russia without direct military confrontation between NATO and Moscow.

Tizengauzen is convinced that the Kremlin reacts first and foremost to the concrete consequences of its actions. Therefore, in his view, every new instance of Russian sabotage should lead to a strengthening of Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Trump Distorts the Advance on Kyiv

Donald Trump has once again claimed that the Russian army could have captured Kyiv in a matter of hours at the start of the full-scale invasion. According to his account, the Russians’ advance was hindered by the decision of one of the generals, who allegedly ordered the tank columns to leave the paved road and move through farmland.

The U.S. president claimed that Russian forces had about a thousand tanks and could have reached the capital in four hours, traveling at maximum speed. But due to the change in route, the vehicles got stuck in the mud, which allegedly thwarted the rapid capture of the city.

Tiesenhausen countered this version with footage of destroyed Russian columns on the outskirts of Kyiv. Specifically, this refers to wrecked vehicles on the Zhytomyr Highway and on one of the streets in Bucha, where Russian units suffered losses from Ukrainian artillery fire.

“I remember very well how dozens of pieces of destroyed Russian military equipment were lying on the Zhytomyr highway. They remained there for several more months. And here is an entire street in Bucha where our artillery destroyed a Russian convoy – right there on the street. That’s how it happens,”
– the expert said.

Ukrainian forces stopped Russian convoys not only on dirt roads but also on paved and concrete highways. It was precisely the resistance of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the use of artillery, and strikes against enemy equipment that became key factors in thwarting the Russian offensive on the capital.

Furthermore, this isn’t the first time Trump has repeated the story about the mud. Back in August 2025, CNN reached out to the White House asking for an explanation of the origin of this claim.

A representative of the U.S. administration sent journalists links to publications that were supposed to corroborate the president’s statements. However, according to information provided by Tizengausen, these materials contained no evidence that it was the change in route that stopped the Russian army.

On the contrary, the relevant reports contained information about the advance of Russian troops along roads and highways where they came under Ukrainian attack.

If the Russians could have captured Kyiv in a few days but were hindered by some general and muddy roads, then why didn’t they listen to a sensible general and resume their advance along the excellent concrete roads? This is a rhetorical question. We all know the answer. And Trump, by the way, knows it too,
– Tizengausen stated.

Such explanations by the American president shift the focus away from Ukrainian resistance and onto supposedly random mistakes by the Russian command. According to the political expert, this devalues the actions of Ukrainian defenders, who thwarted the Kremlin’s initial plans for a rapid capture of the capital.

Moscow Is Drawing Closer to Iran and North Korea

Russia continues to develop cooperation with countries that are in confrontation with the West. Iran remains one of the key areas of focus, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov paid a visit.

Following the talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Moscow and Tehran have never cooperated so closely. This came after remarks by Donald Trump, who the day before had downplayed the extent of Russian aid to Iran.

Lavrov flew to Iran, and together with his counterpart, they sent warm regards to Donald Trump. The Iranian foreign minister stated that Russia and Iran have never cooperated so closely. Meanwhile, Trump had said the day before that Russia is providing virtually no assistance to Iran. “So this is how things really are,”
– noted Tizengausen.

The deepening of Russia’s political and military cooperation with Iran is significant not only for the war against Ukraine. It also affects the situation in the Middle East, where Washington is trying to contain Iranian influence.

North Korea remains another important partner for the Kremlin, supplying Russia with ammunition and troops to participate in the war. At the same time, conflicting reports have once again circulated regarding the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

In particular, rumors have surfaced in the media that he was allegedly hospitalized in China after suffering a brain hemorrhage. There was no confirmation of these reports, and on October 20, the North Korean state news agency published photos of Kim Jong-un with his wife at a clothing and footwear exhibition, which he reportedly attended the day before, according to official reports.

Questions about his health have arisen before. In 2024, South Korean intelligence reported on possible chronic illnesses affecting the North Korean leader, but this does not provide grounds for drawing conclusions about his current state of health.

Tizengauzen also drew attention to the secrecy of the North Korean political system. Even if there is a change in the DPRK’s leadership, Pyongyang’s policy toward Russia may remain unchanged, as important decisions depend on a small circle of representatives of the ruling dynasty and the military-political leadership.

Among Kim Jong-un’s possible successors, the expert mentioned his sister Kim Yo-jong, who already plays a prominent role in the DPRK’s political system and is known for her harsh statements directed at South Korea and the United States.

Russia’s cooperation with Iran and North Korea, according to Tizengauzen, heightens the risks of a much broader international confrontation. Both countries support Moscow, while the Kremlin continues its war against Ukraine and, at the same time, expands its hybrid activities in Europe.

The time has come for the entire democratic world to seriously reflect: if we do not unite and overcome this dictatorial evil, we will not be able to avoid World War III,
Tizengausen warned.

While Moscow is deepening its cooperation with Tehran and Pyongyang, the Trump administration continues to discuss economic concessions to Russia. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy and transportation infrastructure remain one of the factors forcing the Kremlin to spend resources on defending its rear and restoring damaged facilities.

Russia may step up sabotage operations in Europe: watch the video