Tightening Control and Negotiating with Trump: An Exclusive Interview with Pavel Latushko on Lukashenko’s Cynical Actions

Alexander Lukashenko continues to transform Belarus into a state of total control. Expanding access to video surveillance systems, new fingerprinting regulations, and the creation of a civilian militia – all of these are part of a policy designed not only to strengthen the security apparatus but also to curb any signs of dissent against the regime. At the same time, Minsk is facing a labor shortage: as Belarusians are leaving the country en masse, the authorities are looking for ways to recruit foreign citizens into the service.

In an exclusive interview with 24 Channel, Belarusian opposition figure Pavel Latushko explained why Lukashenko is so afraid of his own society, why he is expanding the surveillance system, and who he might recruit into the national militia. He also spoke in more detail about the announced amnesty for female political prisoners, Minsk’s negotiations with the Donald Trump administration, and the profits Lukashenko could reap from resuming potash exports to the U.S.

How Lukashenko Is Expanding the Security Apparatus

Starting October 8, Lukashenko changed the rules governing the public security monitoring system. Access is being expanded for certain units of the armed forces. The new procedures affect Belarusians with foreign residence permits and other international documents. And preparations for an amnesty are expanding surveillance capabilities. What’s behind all this? Why do certain army units need access to the monitoring system? What will the new fingerprinting rules mean for Belarusians living abroad?

The first goal is, of course, that Lukashenko still hasn’t come to terms with the shock of 2020, when people took to the streets en masse, and again in 2021, and then once more when the aggression began in 2022. And he fears Belarusian society.

How can we try to counter this? A system of total control must be implemented. Belarus is no longer a dictatorship; it is not an autocracy, because in an autocracy, they try to destroy the political alternative. It is a totalitarian state.

A totalitarian state means control over all spheres of life and activity in society. Lukashenko wants to control every individual, every citizen. Everyone has had their fingerprints taken; I’ve put you all under surveillance; I control everyone. Try hanging those white-red-white ribbons there. Try drawing the “Pogonya” emblem somewhere. You won’t succeed, because we’re all completely under control.

There were also city marches and street marches. People were coming out in large numbers. And, of course, they now realize that all of this is under video surveillance. People won’t take to the streets because they’ll be arrested tomorrow. In other words, this is a system of prevention – not to combat crime, but to prevent dissent, to target those who disagree with this regime.

As for the military aspect, of course, the armed forces can also receive real-time information about events taking place in various regions. But Lukashenko has now initiated the creation of this people’s militia. In other words, he has created a three-tiered system of armed forces, or an army, in Belarus. There are the armed forces, which consist of professional personnel and conscripts who are drafted annually – though, incidentally, there are staffing issues with the conscripts, since he wants to increase their numbers to 85,000.

But where are you going to get people when you’ve driven 600,000 people out of the country, according to data from March 2025? This is data from the United Nations. 6.4% of the population has left Belarus. And you’re still driving people out. So, a million have left. Where will he find people for these armed forces? Nowhere. So, he’s thinking of changing the law to allow foreign citizens to serve in the armed forces.

Next is the second tier – territorial defense, which exists in many European countries. But he’s introducing a third tier – a people’s militia. In other words, a kind of people’s army. And he says that he will create thousands of people’s militia units in the country’s regions – more precisely, in villages, that is, in village councils. This is the lowest level of local self-government. And he goes on to say that foreigners will also be able to serve there.

And just a few days ago, reports emerged that citizens of Tajikistan are being invited en masse to the Grodno region, where they are being offered higher wages than those paid to Belarusians at a whole range of industrial and other enterprises. In other words, instead of changing policy and giving Belarusians the opportunity to return to their country, he decided to invite citizens of Tajikistan. With all due respect to Tajikistan and its citizens, this is simply absurd.

If you call yourself the leader of a country, inviting migrants instead of improving the situation in the country so that Belarusians – who were born there, lived there, and worked there until 2020 – would return is absurd. He’s inviting Uzbeks; he’s inviting Pakistanis – in other words, he’s inviting them en masse.

Now he wants to sign a visa-free travel agreement with North Korea. So it turns out North Koreans will be arriving tomorrow. And so tomorrow, in the People’s Militia, we’ll see North Koreans, as well as citizens of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and – I don’t know – Turkmenistan, and probably someone else he might invite from there.

Full interview: watch the video

What’s Wrong with the Women’s Amnesty

It was announced that Lukashenko had instructed officials to draft a bill on amnesty with a focus on women. The categories of convicts and the specific charges have not yet been specified, and this announcement does not confirm the release of political prisoners. What do you see behind the announcement of this new amnesty? Is it some kind of domestic campaign, preparation for negotiations with the Americans, or an attempt to respond to international pressure? And let me ask right away: have you received any responses to these letters – which are by no means the first? Why aren’t they imposing sanctions?

This is a very interesting question regarding this directive on the release of women. First, we don’t understand whether this refers to women who have committed criminal offenses or to women who have not committed criminal offenses but were convicted on political grounds.

We have about 170 – plus, unfortunately, it may be wrong to talk about people in this way, but these statistics are constantly changing. The number of people who are detained, arrested, and imprisoned is constantly changing.

More than 170 women are in prison on political grounds. Some of them are in very poor physical condition. But Lukashenko makes no mention of this in his directive. It’s clear why he doesn’t mention it: because he does not acknowledge that there are political prisoners in Belarus.

If he is giving this directive to Prosecutor General Gora, the former head of the Investigative Committee, it means a draft law will be developed. The law must be passed by the House of Representatives, the lower house of Lukashenko’s parliament, and subsequently signed by Lukashenko himself. In Belarus, this year has been declared the Year of Women. And now let’s take a look at what a blasphemy and cynicism this is.

In other words, if Lukashenko plans for his parliament to vote as he directs – and fine, let it vote – after all, we’re talking about freeing people – he’ll sign this bill under the New Year’s tree sometime in December, you see, around New Year’s or during the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. In Belarus, by the way, this People’s Assembly is being prepared: Lukashenko is convening it on December 18–19. It’s also interesting to see what decisions he’ll make there.

So, when could he have passed this bill? In January of this year. Okay, if he doesn’t like January – by March 8. He loves the March 8 holiday, after all. He didn’t pass it. He could have passed it in the summer, before Independence Day on July 3. No, he’s cynically dragging this issue out until the end of the year so he can torment Belarusian women in prisons for another year, so he can mock them for another year.

We have women with children whose kids were taken to orphanages because they are political prisoners – because they were imprisoned. We have a woman who was breastfeeding her five-month-old child when she was arrested and convicted on political grounds. And it doesn’t matter that she has a five-month-old baby. He couldn’t care less. This man is a cynic because he is truly a criminal. He can be compared to the Nazis. It’s not on that scale, but he still treats people that way. He treats people as objects.

And now, in this “Year of Women” – which he himself declared – he’s deliberately tormenting them all year long, and by the end of the year, well, God willing – I don’t want to jinx it – may he release them, God willing. But we must pay attention to this.

But it seems to me that, of course, this statement of his is linked to negotiations with the Americans. He sees that Belarus is not currently a focus of attention for the Americans. The Americans are busy with their own domestic issues, the midterm elections on November 3. The Americans are focusing more on Russia; they’re more interested in making business deals with Russia.

We saw that there was an initiative by Trump to appoint John Cole as special envoy for hostages – that is, for the release of all political prisoners worldwide. But it’s clear that the Americans will first and foremost be interested in Russia. And how do they conduct negotiations? They conduct business and humanitarian negotiations. They come in with a business project – such as one involving potash, for example – and try to reach a business agreement while securing the release of people along the way. It’s good that people are being released, but we must also be realistic in assessing these actions.

But Lukashenko is running late. That is, he realized that Belarus has fallen out of Trump’s focus. There’s no time for Lukashenko right now, and that’s why he decided to take the initiative. Incidentally, he convened a meeting on this matter a few days ago, attended by Foreign Minister Ryzhenkov and Prosecutor General Gora.

How much will the Belarusian dictator earn from selling potash to the U.S.?

But Lukashenko himself says that Minsk is fulfilling all of its agreements with the U.S. On December 29, during an interview, he was asked about the shipment of Belarusian potash through Russian ports and the positions of European countries that have not opened alternative transit routes. So is this potash actually making its way there?

The potash has been shipped – the first ship is there, and he promises to send a second one, or it has already set sail for New Orleans. And the first one has already been cleared through customs and shipped. But that doesn’t solve the problem. All the experts have said this in unison. It does not solve the United States’ problem of supplying farmers and ranchers – as Trump himself wrote – with potash fertilizers.

This is because Canada has been and remains the main supplier, providing 11–13 million metric tons of potash to the U.S. market and meeting about 80% of the U.S. market’s needs. Belarus produces roughly the same amount of potash fertilizers.

But Belarus is unable to fully replace this volume of Canadian fertilizers for the simple reason that it is bound by contracts with other countries – such as China, India, and Brazil – to which it supplies potash.

And frankly, from a business perspective, even the state-owned company “Belaruskali,” which is entirely under Lukashenko’s control, I find it hard to imagine them going down that path. All the potash we mine – and use to produce potash fertilizers – we’ll send to the United States. Relying on a single country is unwise; it amounts to dumping, and it would immediately cause prices to plummet.

But what did Lukashenko gain? By opening up the possibility of supplying potash to the American market again, Lukashenko has earned – or will earn – approximately 600 million to 1 billion U.S. dollars. And I’ll try to explain why. This was calculated by the economists on our team at the People’s Anti-Crisis Management Office.

First, while U.S. sanctions were in effect, Lukashenko could not sell potash to the European Union or the United States. The European Union still cannot; the sanctions remain in effect at least until the end of February. This means that other buyers were engaging in dumping. That is, they demanded special discounts on purchases of Belarusian potash because it was subject to U.S. sanctions, and Lukashenko was forced to lower the price by about $50–80 per metric ton.

Then there’s freight. The carriers handling the transshipment and transport of Belarusian potash fertilizers also inflated their prices because they feared secondary U.S. sanctions, and this increased the transportation costs for potash deliveries. As we understand it, the potash goes through the Russian Federation, while Lukashenko wants it to go through Klaipėda, but either way, this increased the cost. It doesn’t even matter which route it takes – every carrier simply charged a higher price.

Next, the banks. Payments for Belarusian potash had to account for U.S. sanctions. The banks also demanded higher fees – a margin – for processing the transactions.

And as a result, now that this first ship has passed through, all consumers have seen that the floodgates have opened. U.S. sanctions aren’t working, which means Lukashenko will be able to sell potash without a discount and charter carriers at market rates. Plus, the banks won’t be charging any extra fees. And we’ve calculated that Lukashenko could earn roughly one billion U.S. dollars.

Now let’s ask: where will he direct that billion? Into his own pockets, and to support aggression and repression within the country. Do you think he’ll spend it to make Belarus prosper? No, because the entire potash business is tied to the Lukashenko family. That’s a huge amount of money.

There’s a battle going on right now over this money. That’s why lobbyists have stepped in, trying to pressure Lithuania into agreeing to open up transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers through Klaipėda. That’s a huge amount of money. Some might say that a billion isn’t much for Europeans or Americans, but for Belarus, for Lukashenko, of course, it’s a huge amount of money.

What else does Lukashenko want to extract from the U.S.?

That’s right, that’s right. Everything revolves around money for him. And what else can he possibly extract from Trump? Or is there nothing else yet? Will he even make it by November 3?

He definitely won’t make it by November 3, but he seems to be sending signals. What else can he get? He wants the sanctions on “Grodno Azot” lifted. These are nitrogen fertilizers, and there’s very high demand for them on the global market.

Given the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, demand has increased even further. And there was talk of a trilateral project involving the U.S., Belarus (represented by Lukashenko), and Russia.

Gas accounts for 80% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. And if Lukashenko – who has publicly announced this project – were to see it through, and if the Americans were to join this agreement, then the question would arise of lifting sanctions against “Grodno Azot,” which is currently subject to sanctions.

This prevents them from selling nitrogen fertilizers, and at the same time – given that “Gazprom” is involved in this project – the issue of lifting sanctions against “Gazprom” will be raised. And then, as they say, everyone will be satisfied.

Lukashenko will be satisfied with the investments received and the additional sales market, and the Americans will get the products. And, most likely, they might even acquire a stake in this business. And the Russians will be satisfied because the sanctions on “Gazprom” will be lifted.

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg – there’s something more substantial at play. He tried to sell Belavia to the Americans, but nothing came of it. He offered to lease the oil refinery to them or arrange it some other way. So far, nothing has come of that either. These are the projects we know about, the ones discussed with Cole during his meetings with Lukashenko.