Raids on young people, space satellites, and "Oreshnik": What is Russia secretly preparing for?
In an exclusive analytical report for 24 Channel, Israeli military analyst David Sharp explained why the Kremlin is avoiding a full-scale mobilization, replacing it with targeted roundups. Today, a systematic mobilization in Russia would be received much more negatively by the public than it would have been in the fall of 2022, and it would deal a critical blow to the Russian economy due to its massive financial obligations.
The mass roundups of young people in Moscow do not necessarily mean that Russia is preparing for a new wave of mobilization. Vladimir Putin has so far avoided such a decision, as it could lead to serious problems for the country’s economy, budget, and internal stability. At the same time, the Kremlin is developing the “Rassvet” satellite system, which could pose a new threat to the Ukrainian military, and Russia continues to seek ways to intensify its missile attacks.
Why Putin fears mobilization, just how dangerous the Russian counterpart to Starlink could become, and how Ukraine could counter “Oreshnik” strikes – military analyst David Sharp explained these points to 24 Channel.
Misleading Terminology: Why the Roundups in Moscow Are Not Mobilization
Recently, in the Russian capital and other major cities, there have been reports of mass arrests of young people who have been forcibly taken to military registration offices.
However, it is a mistake to call these measures of coercion into military service “mobilization.” According to David Sharp, a classic mobilization is a systematic process in which the state purposefully recruits people from all walks of life, as happened in the fall of 2022.
It is precisely this approach that can provide the army with large-scale, systematic reinforcements – for example, 300,000 people at once.
In contrast, the current street roundups – targeting those who owe child support or marginalized individuals – are ineffective. Such actions provide a slight boost to overall recruitment but do not solve the strategic problem of manpower shortages.
Full interview with David Sharp: watch the video
The Cost of a Political Decision on Mobilization in Russia
Systemic mobilization in Russia is a top-level political decision made personally by Vladimir Putin, not by military leaders such as Valery Gerasimov or Andrei Belousov. And the Kremlin is openly afraid of this step due to a number of critical risks.
First, the mass conscription of those unwilling to fight will inevitably provoke social unrest and a new wave of emigration. Closing the borders will only exacerbate internal tensions.
Second, removing hundreds of thousands of able-bodied men from all sectors will deal a powerful blow to the Russian economy.
Third, there is the financial aspect. Today, Russia pays contract soldiers huge one-time advances and high monthly salaries. If 300,000 people are mobilized and not paid the same way, it will spark a revolt. And paying out such sums all at once would become a massive – perhaps insurmountable – burden on the budget.
That is precisely why Putin hopes to achieve the minimum objective over the next few years without announcing a new wave of mobilization.
Space Threat: Russia’s “Rassvet” System
While Russia is cutting back on social spending, it continues to generously fund priority military programs, particularly space reconnaissance.
The deployment of the Russian "Rassvet" satellite constellation is an attempt to create a technological counterpart to the Starlink system. Although the project is behind schedule, it is steadily progressing.
According to experts, this system could pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces in the very near future. The response to this challenge must be the development of powerful electronic warfare (EW) capabilities capable of jamming enemy satellite signals.
If Ukraine and its allies do not prepare in advance, the situation could resemble the sudden appearance of new types of drones on the front lines, for which the troops are unprepared.
At the same time, Ukraine is taking the right steps by developing its own satellite programs in cooperation with European partners, which will provide the military with secure, encrypted communications.
The Illusion of Intercepting the “Oreshnik” and the Role of Western Missiles
Amid the space race, reports are emerging that Ukraine is developing systems to intercept Russian medium-range missiles, such as the "Oreshnik", before they even approach their targets.
However, David Sharp urges us to be realistic: intercepting such missiles in space requires exoatmospheric interceptors on par with the U.S. THAAD system.
At present, developing such technologies seems unrealistic not only for Ukraine but would also require colossal investments even from the U.S.
A much more practical approach is to destroy Russian launchers, such as the “Iskander,” on Russian territory. Providing Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles or German Taurus missiles could significantly change the situation.
Although it is impossible to completely stop missile attacks (as experience with mobile launchers in Iran shows), the presence of such weapons would force the Russians to withdraw their equipment, make them feel less secure, and significantly reduce the intensity of their strikes.
However, political fears of escalation – particularly on the part of Germany – continue to block the transfer of these critically important weapons.