Russian Airplanes Are No Longer Safe: How "Neptunes" and Strikes on Oil Refineries Are Weakening the Kremlin's Army

Ukraine is uncovering new vulnerabilities in the Russian army, forcing it to move its air force as far away from the front lines as possible and to squander resources without which it is impossible to launch an offensive. The modernized “Neptune” missiles can already strike targets hundreds of kilometers away, and strikes on fuel infrastructure pose a threat to the Kremlin that cannot be resolved simply by redeploying equipment.

Roman Svitan, a reserve colonel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, flight instructor, and military expert, explained in an interview to Channel 24 why the destruction of Russian aircraft could change the pace of air attacks, which target could deal an even more painful blow to Russia’s air force, and how the destruction of the oil refining industry could affect the occupiers’ offensive capabilities. The expert also assessed whether Ukraine would be able to continue long-range strikes in the event of reduced U.S. support.

Modernized “Neptunes” Are a Game-Changer

The successful attack on the Borisoglebsk military airfield in the Voronezh region, where six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers were destroyed at once, demonstrated a new level of capability for Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.

The Russians withdrew their tactical aviation 500 kilometers from the front line, considering this distance safe. Previously, the aircraft were based in Baltimor near Voronezh (300 km), but after the appearance of ATACMS missiles, the Russian command first redeployed them to Engels and then moved them closer – to Borisoglebsk.

However, Ukrainian forces deployed modernized ground-launched “Neptune” cruise missiles. This missile was originally developed by the Luch Design Bureau as an anti-ship weapon (it was this missile that destroyed the cruiser “Moscow”), but its range has now been increased to 500 kilometers thanks to conformal fuel tanks, allowing it to carry a warhead weighing over 100 kilograms.

The Russian air defense system at the airfield was prepared only for drone attacks, so a salvo of four “Neptune” missiles struck the parking area for heavy aircraft – which cannot be quickly dispersed – unhindered.

Consequences for Russian Aviation and Logistics

The loss of six Su-34s represents a 6% reduction in the total number of such aircraft in Russia (there are about a hundred of them). Now the Russian command will be forced to redeploy the remaining aircraft to the Engels airfield, located 700 kilometers from the front line.

This radically changes the enemy’s logistics: the flight time with bombs will increase to 1.5–2 hours, and the number of sorties per shift will drop by at least one and a half to two times. In addition, this will lead to accelerated wear and tear on aircraft and an increase in unscheduled ammunition losses.

The next logical step would be to strike Engels itself, where strategic aviation (Tu-95, Tu-160) is based and tens of thousands of metric tons of aviation fuel are stored in karst caves. An explosion of such an arsenal would have catastrophic consequences for the entire base.

The Oil and Gas Industry as the Main Target

In parallel with the strikes against the air force, the systematic destruction of the Russian oil refining industry continues. This is the only way to defeat a resource-rich country. Currently, about half of Russia’s oil refineries have been hit: one-third are idle, and another portion is undergoing repairs.

The halt in refining has forced the Russians to fill all storage tanks at oil transshipment terminals (for example, in Rostov and Novoshakhtinsk) with crude oil. Strikes on these facilities are most effective right now: full tanks burn to the ground, destroying their foundations, and their restoration will cost millions and take years.

Without fuel, the Russian army will be unable to conduct large-scale offensive operations, as its logistical reach in the south extends 500 kilometers (from Rostov to Kherson). Fuel is the lifeblood of the army, and without it, any offensive will grind to a halt within a few weeks.

The Trump Factor and Intelligence: Why Blackmail Won’t Work

Amid statements by Western politicians regarding a possible halt to military aid or the sharing of intelligence, Ukraine’s strategy remains unchanged. Ukraine receives two-thirds of its intelligence from European partners (in particular, from French satellites).

U.S. data is critically important primarily for tracking ballistic missile launches and monitoring the operation of Patriot systems. However, Patriot systems cover only 5% of Ukraine’s territory. For the remaining 95% of the territory, the lack of information on ballistic missile launches does not change the situation, as there are no means to intercept them there.

If the U.S. stops providing precise coordinates to guide Ukrainian drones, the Defense Forces will be forced to strike broad areas. In that case, not only industrial facilities but also surrounding infrastructure will come under attack.

The Hunt for the GRU Elite and the Collapse of the Russian Offensive

A separate priority for Ukrainian intelligence agencies has been the elimination of the “Rubicon” unit – an elite group of drone operators based within the Russian GRU. Despite maximum funding and supplies of the latest Chinese weaponry, this unit is suffering the heaviest losses. The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces are systematically identifying and destroying “Rubicon’s” training bases and logistics facilities.

The strategy of depleting the enemy’s resources is already yielding results on the battlefield. A recent operation by the Third Assault Brigade, during which more than 100 square kilometers of territory were liberated, was a strategic success. It completely thwarted the Russian command’s plans to partially encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area from the south.

The Russians have lost their prepared staging areas for launching operational breakthroughs. Now their strategic reserves are forced to launch head-on attacks along unprepared front lines, where their equipment is getting bogged down in the marshy terrain near the Oskil and Chornyi Zherebets rivers.

Enemy casualties in this sector alone have exceeded 8,000 personnel. Overall, assuming the current intensity of fighting continues and logistics are disrupted, by the end of the year, the Russian army could face a shortfall of 50,000 to 100,000 personnel, which will be impossible to compensate for due to a lack of funding from the devastated oil and gas industry.

Military expert on new challenges for Russia and U.S. policy: video