Taking Out "Iskanders" Before They Strike: Why Ukraine Needs Its Own Ballistic Missiles

Russia is ramping up production of ballistic missiles and drones in an effort to intensify its air strikes on Ukraine. Due to a shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are increasingly destroying Russian weapons before they are launched; however, to carry out more effective preemptive strikes, they need their own ballistic missiles.

Military expert Ihor Romanenko explained on 24 Channel how Ukrainian ballistic missiles could help destroy Iskander launchers within minutes of their detection. He also discussed the Russian army’s losses, the prospects for Ukrainian missile development, and the activities of Russian intelligence, which is attempting to slow down their production.

Heavy losses are derailing plans for a Russian offensive

The Russian army continues its offensive operations, but personnel losses remain extremely high. Romanenko estimates total Russian military losses at approximately 1.5 million since the start of the full-scale invasion, though he does not rule out discrepancies in the figures.

A particular problem for the occupiers is the ratio between the number of soldiers lost and the rate at which the army is being replenished. According to the expert’s assessment, this gap has widened recently.

Even this month, their losses have risen to 49,000. And considering that they are recruiting no more than 30,000, this difference is significant,
– Romanenko explained.

According to his estimates, Russian daily casualties exceed 1,500 soldiers. Such figures complicate the implementation of offensive plans, especially when the command is trying to hold positions and continue assaults simultaneously.

Romanenko believes that the Russian offensive campaign has, in fact, failed to achieve the objectives set for 2026. First and foremost, this refers to the capture of the entire Donetsk region, as well as Moscow’s territorial claims regarding the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Russia has illegally incorporated all these regions into its Constitution, even though it does not fully control them. According to the expert’s assessment, the Russian command has effectively postponed these unfulfilled objectives to next year.

Russia Is Increasing the Number and Pace of Airstrikes

Problems on the front lines are not halting the development of Russian missile weapons. About two years ago, Moscow shifted its economy to a wartime footing and began rapidly scaling up projects it considers most effective for waging war.

Initially, the Russians ramped up production of “Shaheds” equipped with internal combustion engines, and later began actively developing their jet-powered variants. Now the enemy is working on yet another type of air weaponry designed to combine relatively low cost with high flight speed.

The third type consists of small, inexpensive cruise missiles. They have set the goal of developing them with a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers, an altitude of over 7,000 meters, and a speed of over 700 kilometers per hour – nearly 1,000,
– said the military expert.

These specifications relate to the objectives the Russians have set for the developers. At the same time, Moscow is attempting to increase its stockpile of ballistic missiles, taking into account the limited capabilities of Ukraine’s missile defense system.

Romanenko noted that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are also increasing their capacity to counter air threats. However, the number of anti-ballistic missiles for the Patriot system remains insufficient, so strikes against facilities that support the preparation of Russian attacks are becoming increasingly important.

Ukraine is attempting to strike facilities that manufacture missile components, sites where weapons are assembled and stored, and facilities through which they are transported to launch positions. A separate objective has become the destruction of missiles and launchers immediately before their deployment.

Ballistics will make it possible to destroy “Iskanders” before launch

Romanenko recalled that over the past month, the defense minister had cited eight examples of Russian “Iskander” missiles being destroyed at their launch sites. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike systems, which are now primarily based on drones.

For a successful strike, it is necessary to detect the movement of Russian missile systems in a timely manner and identify the location where they will be preparing for launch. Reconnaissance drones must transmit the relevant information, while strike assets must take advantage of the brief window of time during which the system remains vulnerable to attack.

However, drones have a significant limitation: speed. If a Russian system is preparing for launch, even timely detection of the target may not be enough for a strike drone to destroy it in time.

For such missions, Romanenko considers the Ukrainian FP7 ballistic missile, developed by FirePoint, to be a promising option.

We need it to organize a reconnaissance-and-strike system in which reconnaissance assets detect the movement or location of these missiles or launchers. And within minutes, the ballistic missile will reach and neutralize these missiles or launchers. Because drones are good, but they’re slow,
– Romanenko explained.

The cost of such weaponry is significantly higher than that of conventional strike drones. According to the expert’s rough estimate, an FP7 missile could cost around $600,000, while a FirePoint drone costs approximately $50,000.

The manufacturer also has a heavy drone with a warhead weighing approximately 200 kilograms. However, having a powerful warhead does not solve the problem of quickly reaching the target when dealing with a mobile launcher that can leave its position.

Ballistic missiles could complement Ukraine’s existing reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Romanenko also emphasized the importance of space-based reconnaissance, which can provide information on the locations of Russian military facilities.

If Ukraine had the necessary intelligence data and ballistic missiles capable of striking most of Russia’s territory, the possibilities for preemptive strikes would be significantly broader. The expert believes this area has potential for development, although Ukraine does not yet possess such capabilities on the necessary scale.

Ukrainian ballistic missile capabilities are developing, but there is a problem with scaling

Despite high expectations for its own missile program, Ukraine has not yet demonstrated the widespread use of ballistic missiles. As early as the beginning of fall, there were discussions about the possibility of more active use of domestically developed systems, but there have been few publicly known launches.

Romanenko is convinced that Ukrainian ballistics will continue to develop, but he identified production volumes as the key issue. Individual successful deployments cannot replace the systematic buildup of missile capabilities necessary to counter Russian attacks.

The expert noted that progress is being made in Ukrainian development efforts. At the same time, he drew attention to the problem of public promises regarding new types of weapons, their specifications, and deployment timelines.

In his view, statements by representatives of FirePoint require particular caution. Russian propaganda actively exploits their remarks, particularly regarding the FP5 “Flamingo” cruise missile, which has already been the subject of information disputes.

In wartime, it is essential to clearly coordinate the information support for any processes – especially those related to such critical types of weapons and their use – that our society is eagerly awaiting. And here, in my view, things are not quite right at FirePoint,
– the military expert noted.

Romanenko believes that the state should more actively coordinate the release of information regarding strategic defense developments. He cited the examples of the United States and Israel, where the coverage of military programs is of particular importance due to the potential implications for national security and international relations.

At the same time, it is important to take a responsible approach to promised results. The expert mentioned previous issues with expectations regarding the “Flamingo” and noted that the promising FP7 ballistic missile is now attracting significant attention. He also mentioned the next missile development with a range of 850 kilometers.

In addition to FirePoint, state-owned enterprises are working on Ukrainian missiles. Their developments may be less visible to the public, but they remain an important part of the country’s efforts to develop its own long-range weapons.

Russian intelligence is targeting missile manufacturers

The development of Ukrainian ballistics depends not only on funding, production capabilities, and technology. Enterprises, engineers, and scientific teams are working on new types of weapons, and their activities are of significant interest to the enemy.

Romanenko drew attention to Russian attempts to obtain information about Ukraine’s strategic defense developments. Various missile programs are at risk, particularly those being carried out by government agencies.

Russian intelligence is keeping a close watch on all of our companies, enterprises, and research institutions working not only on the missile program but also on complex, heavy weapons systems. It gathers data and launches attacks to, at the very least, slow down development. And this applies to a number of programs, including the development of our “Sapsan-2,”
the expert said.

Romanenko described the “Sapsan-2” as an expensive but necessary missile for Ukraine. Its capabilities, in his opinion, are essential for developing strike capabilities alongside other domestic projects.

The expert emphasized that Ukraine needs to have a wide range of options for striking Russian military targets. This will allow for the use of various types of missiles and drones depending on the mission, the distance to the target, and the time required to deliver the strike.

Romanenko considers the integrated use of most available strike assets to be the most effective approach. In such a system, ballistic missiles should complement reconnaissance and drones, ensuring the rapid destruction of Russian launchers in cases where there is insufficient time for a drone to reach the target.

Romanenko on Ukrainian ballistics: watch the video