"Russia Is Preparing Attacks on Three Fronts": An Exclusive Interview with a Lieutenant General on Mobilization Failures and Trump's Political Maneuvers

Russia is shifting to a war of attrition and the targeted destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, while Ukraine faces increasingly acute mobilization challenges. At the same time, Donald Trump may offer Kyiv a controversial deal – a month without strikes on Russian oil refineries in exchange for the supply of anti-ballistic missiles.

Military expert, Lieutenant General, and founder of the “Let’s Close Ukraine’s Skies” Foundation Ihor Romanenko, in an exclusive interview with 24 Channel, explained what Trump is seeking, why Russia is betting on destruction, and how Ukraine can resolve its mobilization problems. In particular, the general explained why the police – and not the TCC – should be responsible for tracking down draft dodgers and service members who have deserted their units (SZCH).

Russia has shifted to a war of destruction

What do we need to understand right now about the nature of the enemy’s attacks? We see that the Russians are striking thermal power plants. The Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Plant is one example from last night. They’re using both cruise missiles and drones. Has the campaign of terror aimed at destroying energy infrastructure already begun ahead of the fall-winter period? Do you see a noticeable difference compared to last year?

Unfortunately, yes. A few months ago, Putin fundamentally changed his approach to waging war: he shifted from a war of attrition to a war of destruction. And, unfortunately, this means the destruction of our homeland. To achieve this, he is using the appropriate forces, primarily by launching airstrikes.

I agree with you that on the front lines, despite attempts to launch offensives in certain areas, the enemy has not achieved the decisive results it had hoped for during the 2024 offensive campaign. Moreover, looking back at this year, we see that our Defense Forces have liberated more territory than the enemy has captured. This is happening for the first time.

In addition, the enemy is suffering record losses. In October, these losses totaled 54,000 personnel. The highest daily losses reached approximately 2,250 personnel.

Putin is aware of this situation but has not yet found a way out of it. Russia already has a plan to carry out a partial mobilization, but Putin has not yet dared to take this step, fearing social upheaval. That is why we are seeing events unfold as they are.

We hope that our leadership will succeed in strengthening our missile defense. As for air defense, Ukrainians themselves – proactive, hardworking, and talented – must get involved.

We need to move toward forming air defense groups that will protect our homes, workplaces, and the routes between them. We must build up this capacity.

The government, together with our allies, is trying to provide us with the necessary resources, but we must address the remaining issues on our own. The situation is quite complex.

All of this analysis indicates that Putin is focusing on strikes against critical infrastructure. He is banking on disrupting energy, water, and heating systems on the eve of winter. Therefore, we definitely need to strengthen our air defense capabilities and work to reinforce our missile defense.

You see, the president put forward an initiative stating that Trump wants us to stop striking oil refineries. And we can meet Trump halfway and do this for a month, but in return, he must provide us with a corresponding number of anti-ballistic missiles. In other words, we’re looking for ways to find opportunities to resist.

Full conversation with Romanenko: watch the video

Air Defense, Patriot, and the “Agreement” on Strikes Against Oil Refineries

Could Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries prompt the U.S. to speed up the delivery of the promised 500 Patriot missiles? Are European allies willing to share their own stockpiles?

Both could help. There are missiles in European countries’ stockpiles, but the ones being transferred to us are nearing the end of their service life. If they continue to be stored, they may become unusable, so they need to be replaced with newer ones.

Incidentally, according to estimates by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the U.S. has only about 800 of these missiles for the Patriot systems left – before the war with Iran began, there were approximately 2,330. However, about 850 PAC-3 missiles are produced worldwide each year, and intercepting a single ballistic target typically requires at least two missiles.

In addition, our leadership is working to ensure that our partners transfer the missiles now and later replenish their stocks with new ones from those 500, the delivery of which is planned for the future. However, not everyone is willing to agree to this, as Russia is putting pressure on them. Putin is essentially threatening: “Don’t do this, or we’ll start striking you, and you won’t have anything to defend yourselves with.”

As for Trump, in my view, aside from deals, he understands nothing in other areas and has no idea how they work. That’s why you have to speak to him in his own language. Like, “Let’s make a deal.”

He wants to look good against the backdrop of these events. He even dragged his wife into the Oleshky affair. She figured out – perhaps for the last time – where Ukraine is located and where these Oleshky are, which she previously had no idea about. She wasn’t involved in diplomacy.

This operation was carried out by the intelligence agencies of two countries and two armed forces. But in order to stage another show – this time in a different format – they proposed this deal. They’re doing one thing but showing another.

At the same time, most of the people were rescued, and most left for Ukraine. A ratio of 17 to 4 is a very good result. Moreover, the number of those who left for Russia was later increased to four, although not all the data had been definitively confirmed. In reality, there may have been three or even fewer.

As a reminder, in the temporarily occupied town of Oleshky in the Kherson region, a humanitarian corridor was successfully organized with the mediation of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump. The ceasefire lasted from October 27 to November 1, 2026: food, water, and medicine were delivered to the region, and nearly 800 people were successfully evacuated. However, the exact number of those who returned to territory controlled by Ukraine and those who left for Russia was not officially disclosed.

But it was a game, and Trump continues to try to play it. These are difficult times for the whole world. The struggle, the war, continues. That is why we must seek every opportunity to strengthen our defense and security capabilities.

It is also important to work together, rather than as was the case, for example, in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka. Such situations do not strengthen our defense capabilities. They demonstrate that problems that accumulate – and cannot simply be swept under the rug – sooner or later make themselves known in precisely this way.

What the Russians Are Preparing in the Kherson Region

Regarding Oleshky and the Kherson region: The Russians have used these past three days to regroup, install anti-drone nets, replenish ammunition, and streamline logistics. How long will their reinforced capabilities last? Are attempts to force a crossing of the Dnipro possible, and to what extent will the terror in Kherson intensify?

Who would have thought that the Russians would resort to such actions again? In fact, we’ve already discussed that this situation was largely a farce, that the Russians are acting treacherously and have undoubtedly used this time to strengthen their military capabilities in this territory. All of this has happened. There should be no illusions here.

We must remember that the Kherson region is included in the illegally amended Russian Constitution, according to which four Ukrainian regions are supposedly to be transferred to Russia. Kherson is among them. That is why the Russians were conducting test attacks there.

We recall the attempts on the Antonivsky Bridge, on the islands, and near Oleshky – in various areas around the city. All of this is part of their preparations.

The Dnipro River helps us by creating a powerful natural barrier. The right bank is higher, which provides a certain advantage for combat operations. But we’re talking about an entire city.

We can see that even over the past three days, the residents of Kherson have not been able to feel safe: the shelling and attacks have not stopped. Therefore, this entire situation must be viewed holistically.

Moreover, insider information has emerged indicating that intelligence has uncovered Russian plans to launch attacks from various directions – in the Kherson, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions. They are currently unable to fully carry out these plans, as they lack sufficient forces. However, these intentions do exist.

The Russians have a concept of creating a so-called “sanitary buffer zone.” This primarily concerns the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but the Chernihiv region has also been included in these plans.

Now they are trying to consider the possibility of a partial mobilization to gather additional forces for operations in these areas. They have plans, and there are quite a few of them.

We’ve already discussed this year’s offensive campaign, which effectively failed: the Russians did not achieve their stated goals and have postponed them until next year, possibly until spring.

Therefore, we can see that the situation on the front lines is not developing in Russia’s favor. This is precisely why it is focusing on airstrikes.

We’ve already discussed how important it is to fight for control of the airspace and to strengthen our capabilities in this area. We need to work on this persistently.

Lessons from the Incident in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka

What lessons should Ukraine learn from the incident in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka?

In my view, decisions need to be made in two areas. The military has been talking about this for a long time, but, unfortunately, these proposals have not been fully implemented.

First, we need to amend the legislation and strengthen every citizen’s responsibility for the defense of the state – both military personnel and civilians. This has been discussed since 2022, and it is of fundamental importance.

Second, we must ensure compliance with current legislation – and even better, modernize it with regard to penalties for violations.

By law, every citizen between the ages of 18 and 60 must undergo appropriate medical examinations and provide documents regarding their health, marital status, and other circumstances. Based on this, their role in defending the state and its people under current conditions is determined.

If a person fails to do so, they become a violator. At the same time, a significant portion of these people have already been selected; they have been assigned to the National Guard, where they must undergo basic training and so on.

But as soon as an incident like this occurs, the relevant lawyers, doctors, and others immediately step in. One female doctor became the central figure in this story and, in fact, a star throughout Ukraine. Yet the story involved a medical facility and an ambulance service that do not actually exist as institutions.

If such organizations really exist, then surely our competent authorities know about them? They do. So why aren’t they giving them the attention they deserve?

After all, it is not the military’s role to address these issues – the law does not grant them the necessary authority. The police and the State Bureau of Investigations should be the ones dealing with offenders. But not after the fact, when problems pile up and eventually explode, but proactively, preventing such situations from occurring in the first place.

In fact, there is virtually no talk of preventing offenses. That is precisely why such circumstances arise. We need to hold those responsible for these processes accountable, step up their efforts, and finally dot all the i’s and cross all the t’s.

Why should the state handle mobilization, rather than the TCC?

Why has mobilization reform still not gotten off the ground, and what needs to change?

There is nothing to report – no decisions have been made on this matter. As before, mobilization is handled by a branch of the Armed Forces – the Army Command. This contradicts the fundamental principle that mobilization should be the responsibility of the state, not the Armed Forces.

Responsibility for this process lies primarily with the government. Now government officials have woken up and started taking action. But what are they doing? They’re checking those who are already registered and working, and reviewing who is legally entitled to deferment. In other words, they’re focusing on people who are already on the registry.

These reservations need to be reviewed, as there are also elements of corruption involved. But there are still over 200,000 draft evaders and military personnel who have deserted their units without authorization. These are citizens who have broken the law, and it is the police – not the military – who should be dealing with them.

Until that happens, the situation will not change. The position of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and police leadership is that it is more convenient for them to detain TCC representatives who break the law. Of course, this must also be done: the law must apply equally to TCC employees and other citizens. But we cannot focus solely on this.

At the same time, there are deserters and military personnel who have left their units without authorization, many of whom are known to the police. However, this issue remains overlooked. There are quite a few officials who stand to gain by keeping things as they are. Until this changes, all the talk and statistics will yield no results.

There is only one way forward: to increase the penalties for violating the law.

Under current rules, it’s better for a person to go to prison than to join the Armed Forces. Until this changes, there will be no progress in mobilization.

In addition, we need to address each violator individually. There are agencies responsible for conducting inspections, including when citizens are encountered on the street or in other locations. But this should be done by the police, since the military does not have the authority to do so. Instead, the current system remains in place.

As long as the Army Command is in charge of mobilization, there will be no changes. Every official must be held accountable for their area of responsibility.

The new prime minister is trying to carry out the tasks assigned to him. For example, to review 5% of exemptions and identify cases where they were granted illegally. But this is only the tip of the iceberg, since we’re talking about people who are already registered. Until they start working with everyone who remains in the shadows, there will be no progress in mobilization.

Changes will likely come too late – once the Russians draft at least 300,000 people this year and Putin decides to carry out a partial mobilization. Then we’ll have to make up for lost time, belatedly and with great difficulty.

This interview has been condensed, corrected, and edited for better audience understanding.