Lukashenko Begs Putin to Bring Him to the Negotiating Table: What Is the Belarusian Dictator's Last Resort?

Russia continues to feign a willingness to make peace, using negotiations to buy time and increase pressure on Ukraine. The Kremlin is counting on divisions within Europe and is trying to influence Donald Trump’s position. Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko is seeking a seat at the table for future peace talks, which could be a way for him to regain international standing and secure an easing of sanctions.

What Moscow and Minsk are actually seeking, whether Ukraine faces a harsh winter, and why Lukashenko wants to participate in the talks – Pavel Latushko, head of Belarus’s United Transitional Cabinet, explained these points in an interview with 24 Channel.

The Kremlin’s Diplomatic Smokescreen and Preparations for a Harsh Winter

Russia continues to feign readiness for the negotiation process, creating the appearance of diplomatic activity. According to Pavel Latushko, the only real positive outcome of the current contacts is the agreements on the exchange of prisoners of war, which save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. Everything else is a diplomatic game and a stalling tactic.

The Russian side is proposing so-called humanitarian operations, such as in Kostiantynivka, which it does not control. The true goal of such initiatives is to bring troops closer for subsequent massive strikes and attempts to occupy the city.

Vladimir Putin’s strategy for the coming months is to try to win over Donald Trump by raising his hopes for a quick resolution, so that Trump will increase pressure on Ukraine. At the same time, Russia plans to continue methodical strikes on Ukraine’s energy and critical infrastructure throughout the winter.

According to Latushko, real negotiations can begin only in the spring, before the fifth anniversary of the full-scale invasion, and only if Russia’s economy, oil refining industry, and data centers suffer significant damage. Ukraine must strengthen its position solely through force, as it is impossible to reach an agreement with the aggressor through diplomatic channels.

Full interview with Latushko: watch the video

Why Moscow is Hoping for a Weakening of Support for Ukraine

Putin is closely monitoring political developments in the European Union, counting on a decline in support for Ukraine. As Latushko notes, the ultimatums issued by German chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz regarding blocking the EU budget due to some countries’ refusal to increase aid to Ukraine demonstrate the existence of a serious crisis.

Incidentally, Friedrich Merz has threatened to block the approval of the seven-year EU budget for 2028–2034 if not all member states agree to financially support Kyiv. In this way, Berlin is attempting to ensure that European partners share responsibility for aid to Ukraine.

Resistance from countries such as Slovakia, led by Robert Fico, and the Czech Republic, with the potential influence of Andrej Babiš, plays into Moscow’s hands. Russia is also banking on the upcoming elections in France and the strengthening of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party’s position in regional elections, which could significantly intensify anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Europe.

Lukashenko’s Double Game: Kremlin Rhetoric and a Middle Finger in His Pocket

Alexander Lukashenko continues to follow the Kremlin’s playbook, accusing the West of militarization and preparing for war. At the CSTO summit, he claimed that Europeans were spending billions on security and training special forces near Belarus’s borders, attempting to shift the blame for the escalation onto NATO countries.

At the same time, he has unsuccessfully called on Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to join the confrontation with the West.

However, a hidden message can also be discerned in the Belarusian dictator’s rhetoric. While referring to a new form of terrorism and “terrorist states” that are striking civilian and energy infrastructure, Lukashenko does not name specific countries.

In fact, he is describing Russia’s actions, trying to cushion the blow and play along with the interests of the West or Ukraine. This reveals his fear of accountability and his desire to distance himself from the Kremlin’s most egregious war crimes, while remaining its closest ally.

The Struggle for a Seat at the Negotiating Table: Escape from the Tribunal

The main goal of Lukashenko’s recent visits to Moscow and his meetings with Putin is to secure a seat at the table for future peace talks. The Belarusian regime is no longer content with the role of mediator or with providing Minsk as a venue.

Lukashenko aims to become a full-fledged participant in the process on an equal footing with the leaders of the U.S., China, the EU, and Ukraine.

For Lukashenko, this is a matter of political and physical survival. Participation in high-level negotiations resolves several of his critical problems at once:

• Restoring international standing and breaking out of diplomatic isolation.
• Lifting economic sanctions, which is vital for his regime.
• Resolving the issue of criminal liability. Lukashenko is terrified of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for complicity in the deportation of Ukrainian children, the crime of aggression, and crimes against the Belarusian people.

However, Lukashenko’s participation is not in Moscow’s best interest. Putin views the negotiation format primarily as a dialogue between the U.S. and Russia, and he has no need for the Belarusian dictator’s additional voice. Lukashenko’s increased prominence runs counter to the Kremlin’s interests, as it views Belarus exclusively as its satellite.

Conditions for a Democratic Belarus and Regional Security

Pavel Latushko emphasizes that a free Belarus is an integral part of the security of Ukraine and all of Europe. A totalitarian state under the Kremlin’s control will always remain a source of military threat. Therefore, the Belarusian issue must be included in the architecture of future security guarantees.

If Lukashenko does attempt to join the negotiation process, Belarus’s democratic forces – with the support of Ukraine and the EU – insist on presenting him with a firm ultimatum. Key demands include:

• The release of all political prisoners and an end to repression.
• Restoring the right of political parties, independent media, and civil society organizations to operate.
• Ensuring that Belarusians can return home freely.
• The repeal of the decree prohibiting the issuance and renewal of passports abroad.

Without fulfilling these conditions, any participation by Lukashenko in negotiations is unacceptable. He must remain under maximum sanctions pressure, in isolation, and await an international tribunal. Only systemic changes within Belarus can guarantee stability in the region and prevent a recurrence of aggression from its territory.