Russia Is Losing Aircraft, a Fake "Encirclement" in the Kharkiv Region, and Real Successes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces: A Review of War Events on October 5

A review of events in the Russia-Ukraine war on the front lines and behind the lines as of October 5, 2026, by Channel 24 analyst Andriy Drozda.

Main topics of this edition:

• Russian disinformation about an “encirclement” in the Kharkiv region;
• Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapaty’s strategic plan for waging the war;
• Russian air force losses;
• an analysis of the situation on the front lines.

A text version of Andriy Drozda’s October 5 war briefing is available on Channel 24.

Russian Air Force Losses

The SBU confirmed an operation to destroy Russian Su-35 and Su-34 aircraft at the “Khanska” airfield in the Republic of Adygea. Satellite images confirmed the success: only charred wreckage remained of the aircraft.

The Su-35s were providing cover for Russian bombers, while the Su-34s were dropping guided bombs along the front line and in frontline regions. The strike took place on the night of October 4, and the Russian aircraft did not have time to take off.

This is a highly effective operation by our drones. The Su-35 is the most widely deployed modern Russian 4+ generation aircraft, and it is significant that it was also destroyed.

Photo – AviVector

Another piece of good news concerns the aftermath of the crash of a Tu-95MS strategic bomber in the Amur Region. It has been revealed that eight Russian officers were killed, not six as initially reported.

Among those killed were Major Andriy Lobanov, Major Andriy Gerasimov, and Lieutenant Colonel Fedir Pavlyukov. They had previously been mentioned by the Ukrainian project “Book of Executioners” as participants or perpetrators of missile strikes against Ukraine.

The Tu-95 is Russia's most widely used strategic bomber for launching X-101 cruise missiles at Ukraine. And now there is one fewer such aircraft.

Kharkiv Region and the Border Area: Attempts at Russian Infiltration

Next is the Kharkiv region, specifically the border area near Velykyi Burluk and Bilyi Kolodyaz. This is northeast of Kharkiv, the area beyond Staryi Saltiv, where the Russians are attempting to infiltrate along the border.

At the same time, the enemy claims to have allegedly surrounded Ukrainian troops. This is a lie that Russian generals fed to Putin, and he is now talking about “encirclements” that do not exist in reality.

Screenshot of the DeepState map

In reality, there have been no significant changes in the area of Bilyi Kolodyaz and Velykyi Burluk. The Russians continue their infiltration attempts, but there is no encirclement of Ukrainian units whatsoever.

Russian actions remain chaotic and disorganized. The epicenter of the occupiers’ efforts is Degtyarne – a border village where the enemy has long been trying to gain a foothold and then advance to neighboring settlements: Zemlyanka, Neskuchne, Krugly, and Pishchane. Enemy infantry regularly appears there.

Active fighting is taking place in the villages of Ustynivka, Nyskyne, Vodyane, and Zarubinka. Isolated Russian infantry groups may also reach Dovzhanka.

At the same time, there is no question of the capture of key locations – Velykyi Burluk, Prykolotne, or Bilyi Kolodyaz. These remain the strongholds of the Ukrainian defense in the northeastern part of the Kharkiv region.

Operation “Vivaldi” in the Lyman sector – the fourth phase has begun

The Ukrainian military has significantly cleared the area near Lyman, although DeepState still shows a Russian salient across the Chornyi Zherebets River. Western observers, in his view, are painting a different picture: the Russians have been pushed back to the river, and the situation there is stabilizing.

Everything indicates that Ukrainian forces have managed to push the Russians back to the Chornyi Zherebets River.

At the same time, the Russians are trying to stabilize the front and prevent Ukrainian bridgeheads from forming across the river. Isolated counter-infiltration operations are ongoing in the Yampil area and east of Lyman. The most prominent Ukrainian bridgehead, he says, is in the Yampolivka area.

Watch the video to see how the Shandryholove sweep operation unfolded:

Meanwhile, Operation “Vivaldi” has effectively moved into its fourth phase, although this has not yet been officially announced. Western observers report that Russian forces have been pushed back to the Chornyi Zherebets River, and further fighting is underway to hold the line.

According to Western analysts, in the coming months, troops from the 3rd Army Corps and the “Center” Group, under the command of General Biletsky, may take more active action on the Sloviansk front. The goal is to push the Russians back from Mykolaivka, regain full control of Rai-Oleksandrivka, and push the front line away from Sloviansk.

Currently, Ukrainian troops have already entered the center of Rai-Oleksandrivka, where heavy fighting is ongoing. These battles will determine whether the enemy can advance toward the outskirts of Sloviansk.

Kostiantynivka and the Overall Situation on the Front

In Kostiantynivka, the Russians are attempting to concentrate their infantry and advance along the flank west of the city toward Osykove, while Ukrainian forces are holding them back and launching counterattacks directly within the city.

In some areas, the Russians have gained the upper hand due to their greater numbers, but they have not fully captured Kostiantynivka.

Mykhailo Drapaty’s Strategic Plan

Commander-in-Chief Drapaty’s team has prepared what is likely the first-of-its-kind war plan for the Ukrainian army. According to Ukrainska Pravda, it has been under consideration by the National Security and Defense Council for several weeks now. The document is intended to specify exactly what the army must do to preserve Ukraine and within what timeframe.

The plan, developed by Drapaty’s team, addresses very specific issues, including whether it is worth maintaining observation posts on the front lines where soldiers effectively sit for half a year without the opportunity to engage in combat.

The plan also addresses the decentralization of military command, the reorganization of military formations, and granting greater autonomy to field commanders.

Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine

Drapaty is attempting to transition commanders to the Delta situational awareness system and is calling for the practical implementation of digital solutions. At the same time, the General Staff is intended to focus on reserves, strategic planning, and international cooperation, while the Joint Forces Command is to focus on the direct management of combat operations.

Personnel policy is a separate issue. Drapaty is very actively implementing changes in the army: some officers, colonels, and brigadier generals are being transferred to the reserve battalion – which effectively means they are being dismissed.

These details are worth reading in the full version of the article, and the document itself could serve as an important guide for the future conduct of the war.

A review of events on the front lines of the Russian-Ukrainian war on October 5 by Andriy Drozda – watch the video: