Putin's missile arsenal is shrinking, and Ukrainian strikes are changing the rules of the game: how Ukraine found a weak spot in the military-industrial complex

Ukraine is changing its tactics for striking Russia’s military-industrial complex: instead of targeting ready-to-launch missiles, it can destroy factories without which Russia is unable to produce weapons. At the same time, the emergence of jet-powered “Shahed” drones poses new challenges for Ukraine’s air defense, and F-16 fighter jets could play a crucial role in countering this threat.

Aviation expert Valery Romanenko explained in an exclusive interview with 24 Channel how strikes on manufacturers of batteries, electronics, and rubber affect Russia’s missile arsenal, why the enemy’s ballistic missile production isn’t increasing, and how Ukraine can counter Russia’s new high-speed drones.

A New Strategy for Disrupting the Russian Military-Industrial Complex

Ukrainian defense forces have radically changed their approach to weakening the Russian military-industrial complex. Instead of trying to penetrate the layered air defense system surrounding the final assembly lines for ballistic missiles, strikes are now focused on facilities that supply basic components.

Modern weapons cannot function without electronics, and electronics cannot function without power sources. That is why the recent strike on the “Energia” plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, is a prime example of this new tactic.

This plant provided mass production of batteries and rechargeable batteries for a wide range of Russian weapons systems. In particular, these components were installed en masse on UMPK (universal planning and correction modules), which convert conventional aerial bombs into guided KABs. Furthermore, the electronics on the short-range Kh-35 missiles and the “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles cannot function without these batteries.

The destruction of even a single building at such a facility means a complete halt to mass production. At military factories, production lines typically operate sequentially, and the disruption of a single link paralyzes the entire process.

Interview with Valery Romanenko: watch the video

Optoelectronics and rubber: vulnerabilities in the Russian defense industry

Strikes on supply chains are systematic in nature. In addition to the plant in Yelets, Ukrainian drones and missiles have successfully targeted the "Proton-Elektrotex" plant in Orel. This plant specialized in the production of optoelectronics, which is critical for new, low-cost cruise missiles and drones such as the “Italmas” or “Geran-5.”

While drone attacks usually only damage equipment, the use of missiles (as in the case of Orel) leads to the complete destruction of production facilities.

Another unexpected but extremely important target was synthetic rubber manufacturing plants. Ukrainian long-range drones traveled 2,500 kilometers to strike the "Omsk Rubber" plant and later targeted “Tolyattikauchuk” in the Samara region.

Synthetic rubber is used extensively in the military-industrial complex: from sealing compartments on missiles to manufacturing tires for military vehicles. The destruction of these facilities creates a serious shortage of materials that cannot be quickly replaced by imports.

Stagnation in Russia’s Missile Production

Targeted efforts against component suppliers are already yielding tangible results. According to intelligence reports, Russia has stockpiled approximately 115 ballistic missiles and up to 600 pseudo-ballistic missiles (modified missiles for the S-300V and S-400 systems). However, the pace of their production is not increasing.

Currently, the Russian defense-industrial complex is capable of producing about 65 missiles for the "Iskander-M" and up to 40 pseudo-ballistic missiles per month.

Production of hypersonic “Zircons” is extremely limited – only 30 units in the first seven months of this year. A comparison of July and October figures shows that there has been no increase in Russian production. This is a direct consequence of Ukrainian strikes on related facilities, which prevent the aggressor from scaling up weapons production.

Jet-powered “Shaheds” and Air Warfare: Why F-16s Are Critically Needed

Alongside the missile threat, Russia is attempting to modernize its attack drones by switching to jet engines. New models, such as the “Geran-4” and “Filin,” are capable of reaching maximum speeds of up to 800 kilometers per hour. Recently, one such drone, without a warhead, carried out a reconnaissance flight all the way to the Lviv region, covering about 1,500 kilometers.

As a reminder, a Russian jet-powered drone reached the Lviv region. On October 10, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down an aerial target near Lviv. According to local authorities, there were reportedly no casualties or damage.

However, stated specifications are often misleading. To fly the maximum distance, a jet drone must travel at cruising speed (0.7–0.75 of maximum speed), which is about 560 kilometers per hour. In addition, to fly to western Ukraine, drones are forced to fly almost in a straight line, conserving fuel by avoiding maneuvers. This makes their trajectory predictable and turns them into easy targets for aircraft.

This is precisely where the critical role of F-16 fighter jets becomes apparent, refuting the claims of some Western analysts (notably Tom Cooper) that Ukraine does not need fighter jets. A speed of 400–600 kilometers per hour is extremely difficult to intercept with conventional anti-aircraft drones or mobile fire teams, but it is ideal for fighter jets.

F-16s equipped with Sniper pod containers and inexpensive APKWS guided missiles (based on Hydra unguided rockets) are capable of effectively and en masse destroying jet-powered “Shaheds” at long ranges.

Ground-based systems, such as the “Vampir,” lose the missile’s kinetic energy as early as 3.5 kilometers in altitude, whereas jet-powered drones can fly at altitudes of 6,000–7,000 meters. Without modern aircraft, Ukraine simply would not be able to counter this new threat, and Russian aircraft armed with KABs would be able to fly much closer to Ukrainian cities.